Markets were rocked Monday following a speech by Vice President Pence this weekend in which he reiterated a hardline stance on trade against China. On the heels of the speech came a Wall Street Journal report that Apple (AAPL) had cut production figures for all of its just released iPhones. The one-two punch hit Apple (-3.96%) and its chip suppliers, as well as international companies like Caterpillar and Deere which fell 3.06% and 3.58% respectively. The Nasdaq was hardest hit finishing off 3.03%, followed by the S&P 500, down 1.66%, and the DJIA off 1.56%. The continued flip between hot and conciliatory rhetoric in the trade war appears to be tiring investors. Many had hoped the signing of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was a precursor to a relatively quick resolution of the trade war with China, but those hopes are dwindling as the new year approaches. The lingering trade war, combined with predicted interest rate increases, now have analysts projecting a slowdown in GDP at a minimum, and a possible recession in the latter half of 2019.

The TJ Maxx (TJX) family of companies will report earnings Tuesday coming off of an over 5% decline Monday. Analysts are looking for the company to report a strong quarter with earnings up 22%, but fears of an economic slowdown heading into 2019 has hammered retailers over the past week. Joining  the retail parade on Tuesday are Target (TGT) and Ross Stores (ROST). Both are expected to report strong quarters as well, though all of the retailers are expected to report increasing labor and freight costs. Other names of note with earnings Tuesday are Medtronic (MDT) and Lowe’s Companies (LOW).

Economic numbers Tuesday include Redbook retail data and housing starts. The housing starts number takes on added significance after the Housing Market Index fell through the floor Monday morning. The index, coming in at 60 versus an expected 68 showed weakness across the geographic board. Wednesday, the last day before Thanksgiving, brings the release of durable goods, jobless claims, consumer sentiment, existing home sales and leading indicators data. Leading indicators are expected to rise .1% in October following a healthy .5% bump in September. Analysts will clearly be focused on the existing home sales number for further clarification of how badly the housing market is fairing.

Deere (DE) reports earnings before the bell Wednesday. The tractor company missed estimates last quarter due to rising costs. Analysts are cautious ahead of this quarter and are worried the agribusiness cycle may have peaked. Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) will release earnings after the bell Wednesday. The Chilean chemicals and mining grew earnings by over 34% last quarter. Also reporting Wednesday are Baozun (BZUN) and AstroNova (ALOT).

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Investors endured another roller coaster ride in the markets Friday. Tech weighed heavy early on the Nasdaq after chip darling NVIDIA (NVDA) was slammed for reporting a negative outlook. The GPU maker said crypto mining is declining after the recent losses in Bitcoin. Bitcoin plummeted through the $6,000 level on Wednesday and is now trading around $5,600. NVIDIA finished the day down 18.76%, and is now down over 43% from an all-time high set just last month. But, upbeat news on China rallied the markets near the close, putting both the DJIA and S&P 500 in positive territory.. President Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, said he thinks a deal with China will be done. The positive comments follow a week in which other positive news, a definite meeting of Trump and Xi at the G20, and word that staffers on both sides are talking again, slowly began to paint a more positive picture. This allowed investors to take a few positives into the weekend. On top of the trade news, oil remains much lower than it was a month ago, a positive for all the companies (and consumers) that benefit from lower oil prices. And, the Fed has now stated from more than one source that it does see signs of a global slowdown. And, they will be watching the data as the Fed embarks on rate increases, as opposed to following a rote script.

Although earnings season has begun to wind down, there are still a number of high profile companies reporting next week. Monday Agilent (A) and Intuit (INTU) report earnings. Agilent has shown strength in its life sciences and genomics group in recent quarters. Analysts will be looking for accelerating growth in these areas. While growing its Quickbooks user base, Intuit has been adding international users at a much higher clip, though granted from a smaller base, the past few quarters. Investors would like to see the international growth continue at this rapid pace and possibly offset any softness in U.S. numbers.

Monday brings the release of the housing market index and ecommerce retail numbers. The housing market index, focused on new home purchases, will be of particular interest after the recent warning from KB Homes (KBH) sent the stock lower. More housing numbers are on tap for Tuesday when housing starts are released. We’ll also see Redbook retail numbers. And, to complete the housing picture on Wednesday, both mortgage applications and existing home sales will be released. The data should give a better picture of a housing market which has been slowing rapidly as mortgage rates have risen the past few months. Also released on Wednesday will be durable goods, consumer sentiment, and jobless claims data. There’s no data on Thursday as markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving Day celebration. Those who have recovered from the holiday celebration can pour over flash composite PMI numbers Friday morning.

Best Buy (BBY) and Analog Devices (ANI) take center stage with earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are looking for projected holiday numbers from Best Buy with the release of a plethora of new video games in the second half of 2018. Wednesday investors will hear from John Deere (DE) and Baozun (BZUN). Last quarter Deere complained of rising costs impacting earnings. Sundlands Online Education Group (STG) is scheduled to close out the holiday week on Friday.

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Markets continued their volatile ways Wednesday as markets rallied early in the morning on in-line CPI data, and then sold off into the afternoon before staging a brief rally near the close. Apple (AAPL) again led the Nasdaq lower as concerns over falling iPhone sales continue to dog the stock. The Nasdaq fell .9%, followed by the DJIA falling .81%, and the S&P 500 falling .76%. Bank stocks hit the skids as Representative Maxine Waters, the projected new chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said the President’s efforts to curb banking regulation would “come to an end” once Democrats take control of the House next year. The already struggling bank stocks, which many had expected to lead the next rotation in the market given rising interest rates, turned south after the comments. BofA, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs all traded lower on the day. The negative tech and banking news overshadowed a good earnings report from Home Depot (HD) which finished up slightly on the day.

As earnings season winds down, investors still have some important companies to hear from. Thursday NVIDIA (NVDA), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Nordstrom (JWN) all report earnings. With bitcoin dropping below $6,000 and technology stocks under pressure, investors will be laser focused on NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA’s gaming segment, which grew 52% year-over-year last quarter, and the data center business, will be in the spotlight. Any softness in growth could cause a further drop in the already battered stock. Nordstrom follows a very upbeat report from Macy’s (M) and a less than glowing report from Amazon (AMZN). Analysts will be looking for management opinion on the strength of the upcoming holiday season.

Thursday is not short on economic data as investors will be hit with a blizzard of numbers. Jobless claims, the Philly Fed business outlook, retail sales, import export, and business inventory numbers will all be released Thursday morning. Weekly petroleum numbers, more in focus than usual given the historic decline in the price of oil, will also be released Thursday. Gasoline inventories are expected to rise 1.9 million barrels and crude inventories are expected to tack on 5.8 million barrels. In what is expected to be a sixth straight monthly build in business inventories, analysts are looking for a .3% rise. Friday brings industrial production numbers and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing data. Capacity utilization is expected to inch up .1% to 78.2%.

Friday earnings include data from Rockwell Collins (COL) and Helmerich and Payne (HP). United Technologies still anticipates receiving Chinese approval for its purchase of Rockwell Collins, and investors will expect an update on any news in that arena. Higher rig utilization numbers are expected to bolster earnings from Helmerich and Payne, even as oil has been in a freefall the last month. Analysts will be looking for any insight into where the oil market is headed as we enter the winter months.  

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Markets plunged Monday after coming under attack from multiple directions. Apple (AAPL) led the Nasdaq (-2.78%) lower after a key supplier of face recognition technology, Lumentum Holdings (LITE), told investors a key buyer had asked the company to “materially reduce shipments” of its products. Apple is notorious for demanding that its suppliers remain tight lipped about having Apple as a customer. This was followed by reports that President Trump is ready to play hardball and impose 25% tariffs on automobiles entering the U.S. Analysis of a possible trade deal with China at the G20 meeting later this month is also showing little hope of a compromise. On top of these two items, oil continued its bearish move, dropping another 2%, and the strong dollar continued to rise. The result of the combined news was a drop of more than 600 points on the DJIA, for a 2.32% loss, and a 1.97% trouncing of the S&P 500.   

Tuesday investors are hoping for more positive news when Home Depot (HD) reports earnings. Expectations for the home improvement store are somewhat mixed as analysts weigh the negative impact of floundering new housing construction against the remodeling business, which may see an uptick as homeowners stay put. Also reporting Tuesday are Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and Tyson Foods (TSN). Analysts are expecting a record year from Tysons with earnings up over 22% this quarter. Strong results have been driven by Tyson’s beef and prepared food offerings.

The small business optimism index will be released Tuesday along with Redbook retail numbers. The NFIB index measures items such as plans to increase employment and plans to make additional capital outlays. The index is now expected to come in at 108. Wednesday investors will digest the weekly mortgage application numbers. Week-over-week applications are expected to drop 4% as rising interest rates continue to negatively impact both purchases and refis. Analysts will also get a look at CPI and Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations Wednesday. October CPI is expected to rise .3% after a .1% rise in September.

Cisco (CSCO) will lead the earnings charge on Wednesday. The network backbone company has been increasing earnings derived from a subscription model to boost revenue. The company also benefited from tax law changes which allowed it to repatriate $67 billion in 2018. Analysts will be looking for possible hints as to where the money, which hasn’t already been used for buybacks and dividends, will be spent. Continuing the tech theme, NetEase (NTES) and NetApp (NTAP) also report Wednesday, and rounding out the earnings calendar is Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC). The cannabis provider looks set to continue its rapid growth aided by recent investments from Constellation Brands (STZ). Analysts are expecting a near tripling of revenue from the company.

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Markets stumbled recovering some of their losses near the close Friday. The DJIA was off .77%, the S&P down .92%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.65%. The main driver Friday was a fear that falling oil prices, which have now touched bear market territory, are predicting a slowing world economy. Not only have oil prices fallen close to 20%, but the rapid decline from nearly 4 year highs set only last month has elevated concerns. It’s unclear at this point whether the decline is a demand or supply problem. U.S. production is at all time highs. Recent Baker Hughes rig count numbers showed a pop in rigs added last month to levels not seen since 2015. Given the record production levels, and more rigs coming online, it’s plausible recent price declines are more production than demand related. But, the price drop has introduced more uncertainty into an already shaky market. After a tumultuous October, investors are prone to act first and ask questions later headed into year end.

Monday investors will get earnings from UGI Corp. (UGI) and the Chinese automotive website owner Autohome (ATHM). UGI CEO announced last quarter that the company had been ordered to return tax savings to Pennsylvania customers putting a dent in what had been a windfall tax benefit. But, even with this setback the company announced it is still expecting record earnings in 2018. Autohome has been cut almost in half from highs set earlier this year. Investors will be looking closely at earnings this quarter to determine if the stock has fallen into value territory and may deserve a second look at these levels.

A government holiday on Monday means no economic numbers are scheduled for release, but markets will be open on Veterans Day. Tuesday investors will dissect small business optimism and Redbook retail numbers. The optimism index came in at 107.9 last month. The Index has been sloping upward since hitting a low of 92.6 in April of 2016. CPI, mortgage applications and Atlanta Fed numbers on business inflation will all be released Wednesday. The inflation expectations will be closely watched as one indicator of further Fed moves. Thursday’s calendar is loaded.  Jobless claims, the Empire State manufacturing survey, import export prices and business inventories will all be released Thursday morning. We’ll close the week with industrial production, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, and the Baker Hughes rig count numbers. If oil continues its decline the rig counts will take on greater importance headed into the weekend.

Tuesday Home Depot (HD) will release earnings. Following major hurricanes in the U.S., investors are anticipating a good quarter as rebuilding begins. Also reporting Tuesday are Tyson Foods (TSN) and Advance Auto Parts (AAP). Tech takes center stage Wednesday as Cisco (CSCO), NetEase (NTES) and NetApp (NTAP) all report. Walmart (WMT) and NVIDIA (NVDA) will headline earnings Thursday. Analysts are anticipating a continued blistering growth rate from the processing company as its cloud offerings continue to power growth in major players such as Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Viacom (VIAB) and Helmerich & Payne (HP) complete the earnings calendar Friday morning.

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Markets like certainty. The generally expected election results, with Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives and Republicans solidifying control of the Senate, seemed to please investors Wednesday. Markets rose across the board with the Nasdaq putting in the largest percentage gain at 2.64%. The S&P 500 rose 2.12% and the DJIA tacked on 2.13%. President Trump added to market gains by striking a conciliatory tone and implying he could work with a Democratic House to pass an infrastructure bill. Whether investors believed the rhetoric, or if they are relying on a split government to “do no harm” is unclear. But, since both beliefs can lead to a higher market, investors headed multiple calls from CNBC talking heads that post midterm elections the market generally moves higher.

Walt Disney (DIS), Activision Blizzard (ATVI) and Johnson Controls (JCI) all report earnings on Thursday. Analysts will be looking for Disney to provide an update on the acquisition of Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) assets. Investors will be paying particular attention to metrics around direct-to-consumer subscription services which will eventually be utilizing the Fox assets. If Disney can get the mix of investments necessary to promote and push out its media services in line with profit predictions, the market may look favorably on the company headed into next year. While Activision’s latest iteration of Call of Duty has been a hit, the stock has taken a beating over the last month. Analysts fear an oversaturation in the gaming market may be impacting stocks like Activision.

The economic headline Thursday will arrive at 2pm when the Fed releases its statement following a two day meeting. While no action is expected on rates, investors will be monitoring the announcement closely for any change in wording. Jobless claims, released Thursday morning, are expected to drop slightly to 213k. The number has been on a fairly steady decline for over two years now. Friday’s consumer sentiment number is expected to ease slightly from the 98.6 reported in October to a flat 98 in November. Also coming on Friday are wholesale trade numbers and the producer price index (PPI). PPI is expected to rise slightly, .2%, month-over-month.

Closing out the first full week of November earnings are GNC Corp. (GNC) and Potbelly (PBPB). GNC delayed its earnings announcement a few days to attempt completion of a strategic investment by a Chinese investor, Harbin Pharma. Investors will be looking for an update on the investment and possible joint venture activity with the Chinese partner. Potbelly is expected to announce positive earnings as a new management team is attempting to revamp the sandwich maker. Analysts will be looking for bold moves from the brand on hopes of powering the stock higher.

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While tech, especially Apple (AAPL), continued to weigh on the Nasdaq Monday, the S&P 500 and DJIA attempted to repair some of the damage done in recent weeks by putting in slow, steady gains. The S&P ended up just over a half percent and the DJIA closed up .76%. News that Warren Buffett had increased Berkshire Hathaway purchases, both of its own stock as well as its other holdings, helped buoy the market. Announcements of insider buying at IBM and GE also helped soothe investor nerves. This, combined with better than expected non-manufacturing ISM numbers to start the first full week of November off on a mixed note. A lack of negative news on the tariff front did not hurt either, as hope begins to bloom that some positive progress will emerge out of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi at a G20 meeting later this month. Tuesday investors will head to the polls, but voting should have little impact on the markets until results are in for the Wednesday session.

Tomorrow earnings will roll in from Eli Lilly (LLY) and CVS Health Corp. (CVS). Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks has the company in restructuring mode, and thus far in 2018 investors have been pleased with his progress. The stock is up 26% so far this year, and analysts will be looking for the cost cutting and restructuring to continue. CVS earnings are expected to rise 14% on a sales increase of only 2%. CVS will be expected to give an update on its acquisition of Aetna (AET), which has been approved but has yet to close. Analysts would like an update on any additional synergies the company has identified as it works toward the closing.

The Tuesday economic calendar includes Redbook retail numbers as well as Labor Department job openings numbers. Job openings are expected to hold steady, but the number of people willing to quit their jobs, which can be an indicator of inflation, is expected to nudge higher. Tuesday is also mid-term election day with a number of high profile elections taking place across the country. With many races still too close to call, a change in control of Congress is still on the table, and may impact Wednesday’s trading. Wednesday kicks off a two day Fed meeting and also brings the release of mortgage application data Wednesday morning.

Qualcomm (QCOM), Prudential Financial (PRU) and Monster Beverage (MNST) all report earnings on Wednesday. Qualcomm earnings are expected to fall around 10% as the company is negatively impacted by its continuing dispute with Apple (AAPL). Qualcomm has accused Apple of sharing trade secrets with Intel (INTC) in the ongoing dispute between the two companies. Increasing the product offering base is expected to positively impact the bottom line at Prudential this quarter. The company is expected to report $3.14 per share, increasing earnings a little over 4%. The ability to bring in higher fees in its Annuities and Investment Management division is also expected to be a positive driver of revenue.     

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Markets traded Friday as if the White House and its inhabitants were engaged in the children’s game of telephone. Pre-market reports from Bloomberg that President Trump had directed White House staff to draw up a trade agreement with China saw DJIA futures sprint over 300 points to the plus side. After a CNBC reporter played part of his interview with White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow, stating a deal was not in the works but could happen at some point, futures fell quickly to up only 200 points. The release of the jobless number, which came in at a red hot 250,000, buoyed the futures market until investors realized the numbers gave the Fed more ammo to raise rates. Markets opened positive and then sold off as Apple (AAPL) earnings weighed especially heavy on tech. But, late in the afternoon markets rallied to pare losses as President Trump said a trade deal with China was closer. Investors can take one lesson from market movements on the first Friday of November, volatility appears to be here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Monday analysts will parse earnings from Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Marriott (MAR) and Sysco (SYY). Oil continued to slide Friday, but an Exxon Mobil (XOM) earnings beat kept the stock in positive territory. Investors will be anxious to see whether Occidental can match the good news out of Exxon and halt the damage in the stock inflicted over the past few weeks. Marriott beat and raised earnings estimates for the year last quarter, but currency headwinds may be taking a toll on the company as 2018 has marched on. Analysts will be looking for continued strong growth in the Starwood brand, which Marriott acquired in 2016.

In addition to earnings, economic numbers released on Monday will include PMI services data and the ISM non-manufacturing index. The ISM index came in at 61.6 for September. Any number above 50 indicates growth in the index components which include services, construction, and mining among others. Tuesday investors will see the release of weekly Redbook retail numbers as well as the Labor Department’s job openings data. Wednesday begins a two day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but no action on rates is expected from the Fed until December. Even so, the Fed statement to be released Thursday afternoon may rattle markets. Wednesday morning mortgage application numbers will be released followed by jobless claims on Thursday. Friday we’ll digest the Producer Price Index for October, which is expected to rise .2%. Also released Friday will be consumer sentiment and wholesale trade numbers.

As we are in the heart of earnings season, several large names report next week. Tuesday Eli Lilly (LLY) and CVS Health Corp. (CVS) are scheduled to report. Wednesday Qualcomm (QCOM), Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) and Prudential Financial (PRU) will all release earnings. Qualcomm was recently downgraded by BofA citing a lack of opportunity to cut costs and softening smartphone demand. Disney (DIS), Astrazeneca (AZN) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) release numbers on Thursday. Call of Duty 4, recently released by Activision, has broken sales records for the franchise, but the stock was not spared in the recent market selloff. GNC Holdings (GNC) and Potbelly (PBPB) close out the week with earnings on Friday.    

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Facebook (FB) earnings, combined with assurances from CEO Mark Zuckerberg that margins would stop shrinking in 2019, soothed investor angst Wednesday and made Halloween not so spooky for the markets. The social media giant, which crushed earnings estimates, but missed slightly on revenue, said plans to further monetize Instagram and Messenger are in the works. The fact that the company missed on revenue, but placed enough stock in Zuckerberg’s plans that the company rose over 4% Wednesday, could mark a major change in tone for the markets. Investors were grasping for any news that would stop the tech slide, and Facebook appears to have stepped into the breach for now. Stepping away from tech, General Motors (GM) did its part Wednesday to bolster the market rally. The company earned $1.87 per share when analysts had expected $1.25. GM noted that tariffs and rising commodity costs are hurting numbers, but said strength in all of its market segments was sufficient to offset those costs. The stock was up over 9% by the close.

Investors hope Apple (AAPL) continues to fuel the market bounce when it reports earnings after the bell Thursday. Analysts have been raising earnings expectations for Apple the past few months, believing the company is selling fewer phones but at a higher price point. Investors will be looking for an update on the impact of the trade war. Also reporting Thursday are DowDuPont (DWDP) and Starbucks (SBUX). Analysts will be looking for the impact of rising commodity prices on the chemical maker’s earnings. While Starbucks investors will be looking for a reversal of the declining foot traffic the company has encountered. Comp sales were up just 1% last quarter.

Thursday’s economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, Q3 productivity numbers, unit labor costs, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and construction spending. Productivity is expected to rise 2.3%, a slight decline from last quarter. Labor costs are expected to rise 1.1% after a 1% decline the previous quarter. The first Friday of November will usher in nonfarm payroll numbers and the unemployment rate. Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7% with nonfarm payroll numbers clocking in at just over 200k. Also on tap for Friday are average hourly earnings, trade deficit numbers and factory orders. The trade deficit is expected to remain almost unchanged at $53.6B.

Friday the markets will focus on energy when Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Duke Energy (DUK) all report earnings. With oil now down around 15% from highs set early in October,analysts will be looking for forecasts from these companies as to when they believe the decline will end. As a defensive stock, Duke Energy has performed well during the market selloff and is up just over 5% the past month. Also reporting Friday are Alibaba (BABA), Seagate Technology (STX) and Newell Brands (NWL).  

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Markets attempted to rally Monday morning on the news IBM (IBM) was purchasing Red Hat (RHT) for $34 billion to beef up its cloud business. The merger, combined with a bounce in beaten down financial stocks, had markets higher Monday morning. But the rally could not hold as the day wore on. Stocks were once again led lower by members of the FAANG cohort as Amazon (AMZN) dropped over 6%, followed closely by Netflix (NFLX) down almost 5%, and Facebook (FB) which dropped over 2%. Growth stocks continue to take the brunt of the market selloff, driving the Nasdaq down another 1.63% on Monday. Investors, who had hoped earnings season might turn the market higher again, have been disappointed thus far. With no trade war resolution on the horizon, it is not readily apparent where the next positive catalyst for the markets may appear.

Tuesday, earnings will be released by Facebook (FB), Pfizer (PFE), Mastercard (MA) and Coke (KO). Facebook has been under intense scrutiny for activity on its platform recently, including election tampering and unauthorized use of data. But analysts fear there is another shoe to drop for the social media company, slowing ad revenue. Investors should watch earnings, which are almost entirely from ad revenue, for any hint of a slowdown. Pfizer earnings may be more about the company’s drug roadmap moving forward than this quarter’s earnings. The company is looking for approval for several major drugs in the next few years as it loses patents on several of its current offerings. Analysts expect an update on the drugmaker’s progress in adhering to their current projections for approvals.

Economic reports kick off Tuesday morning with Redbook retail numbers, the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, consumer confidence, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index. The Case-Shiller monthly numbers fell off a cliff in late spring and have failed to recover the rest of the year. Analysts are expecting a .1% rise for August. Consumer confidence is expected to dip slightly after reaching an 18 year high in September. The ADP jobs number will headline Wednesday’s economic news. The report is expected to come in at 178k for October, a decline of 52k from the September number. MBA Mortgage Applications and the employment cost index will also be released Wednesday morning.  

October 31st earnings include numbers from General Motors (GM), Allstate (ALL), Express Scripts (ESRX), and Automatic Data Processing (ADP). General Motors guided lower for the year last quarter due to increasing commodity prices and a falloff in the Chinese market, and the stock paid the price. GM appeared to be riding the coattails of a Goldman Sachs upgrade of Ford (F) on Monday as the overall market faltered. Analysts will be looking for how the car company plans to address both continued tariffs and an apparently further weakening Chinese market. Investors will be looking to Allstate for an update on the ongoing success of its advertising campaigns. The stock jumped higher after last quarter’s earnings, which CEO Tom Wilson partially attributed to an enhanced ad campaign that allowed the company to more succinctly target potential customers.

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