Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) has continued its downtrend. Following its principal product achieving legal status across Canada, ACB stock and its peers have seen a brutal selloff.

With ACB losing about 50% of its value over the last six weeks, feelings of hunger for marijuana stocks have given way to paranoia. Legalization might have killed the buzz in Canada. Still, other countries appear poised to loosen their cannabis laws. With that, Aurora could benefit from new rounds of reefer stock madness, particularly if the United States rescinds marijuana’s Schedule I designation.

Legalization Killed the Buzz on ACB Stock

To be sure, official legal status in Canada has become a classic “sell the news” occurrence for ACB stock. ACB along with peers such as Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY) have sold off over the last six weeks.

This makes little sense on some levels. Canada finds itself in the midst of a shortage of weed that could last months. Interest has also emerged in unexpected places such as the cosmetics industry. Yet, these normally bullish signs have not stopped ACB from falling. As a result, ACB stock has begun to flirt with its 52-week lows.

This offers both good and bad news for owners of cannabis stocks. Investors need to accept the reality that marijuana hype for Canada has ended. Moreover, as more countries loosen regulations on cannabis, more marijuana stocks will emerge. With a greater supply of marijuana stocks, demand for the same few Canadian marijuana equities naturally falls.

Investors should also remember that legalization will make marijuana stocks boring. Their long-term future will probably resemble that of tobacco or alcohol stocks such as Altria (NYSE:MO) or Canopy-investor Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ). Such a future will likely consist of dividends, slow but steady profit growth and unremarkable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.

Countries Like the U.S. Could Bring Back the Hype

That said, every developed country has to first get to this point of legal status. I believe full legalization will sweep the developed world, including the U.S. I also expect this period will inspire a new wave of hype similar to what we saw in Canada before mid-October.

A removal of marijuana’s Schedule I designation in the United States could set that trend afire. Such a move coming from its neighbor to the south would offer a particular benefit to ACB stock and its Canadian peers. With that federal roadblock removed, foreign companies, such as Aurora could participate. This, of course, would probably inspire the interest needed to bring investors back into ACB stock.

So the question becomes when to buy? With the stock still trending downward, now may not serve as the best time. ACB stock currently trades at around $5.50 per share. With 11 Canadian cents (8.3 cents) per share in profit for this year, the stock may appear expensive. Still, the profits speak to the stability of Aurora Cannabis stock.

Also, Wall Street forecasts a profit growth rate of 145.8% for this fiscal year (2019) and 27.3% in 2020. This massive rate of increase lessens the risk of paying a high multiple. Once ACB stops selling off, it should position itself to benefit from the next wave of marijuana hype.

The Bottom Line on ACB Stock

Stock price growth could easily return to ACB stock, especially if the United States chills out on their strict marijuana laws. The massive drop in ACB and other Canadian cannabis stocks following legalization indicates that the stock growth in its home market has lost its buzz. While legalization tends to make cannabis stocks boring across the board, most countries have not yet achieved full legal status.

This brings opportunities for new rounds of reefer stock madness in other countries. With Aurora’s proximity to the U.S. market, this becomes especially true south of the Canadian border. A removal of Schedule I status in the U.S. would open up new production and sales in a nearby market nearly ten times its size. This could set up ACB stock for new highs.

As the stock continues to fall, investors need to watch and wait. However, if ACB forms a floor, or if the U.S. opens up on the federal level, prepare for new highs.

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The marijuana stocks have been smoking hot in 2018. Some of the wildest trades of the year happened in Tilray (NASDA:TLRY) for example. This is a sector that exploded on to the market and has immediately amassed a die-hard fan base. But trading pot stocks has not been for the faint of heart. These are momentum stocks and they move even faster than Amazon(Nasdaq:AMZN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) is no different. ACB stock as seen several moves over 50% in either direction. So it’s never going to give investors an easy point of entries or exits.

For decades, pot was taboo, so it has never was a topic of conversation on Wall Street. But now that legalization of marijuana is becoming more ubiquitous, the concept of commercializing its uses is a valid thesis. There are several companies that have attracted mainstream investments like Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) did with Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC). They invested $4 billion dollars so they can tap into the market.

Canada has been at the forefront of this movement. Some states in the U.S. have also been there but the big one would be at the federal level. Until that happens the risk in those stocks is still high. Therefore, I would only consider investing in ACB as a speculative thesis within a conservative portfolio.

From an evaluation perspective, the company sells at an 82 price-earnings ratio, which is almost Amazon territory. But unlike Amazon, its future is not as set in stone yet. But therein lies the opportunity.

This Canadian-based company is a legitimate competitor in the field. They are well diversified within it and already are in 20 countries. So it’s a matter of time as the legalization expands before they grow into their potential.

There’s not much expert opinion out on these companies, and in any case, I don’t think there are too many experts yet as the field is still too young for Wall Street to entirely grasp. So it’s a matter of picking a few of the potential winners and holding them for the long term.

In lieu of picking winners, one can invest in an ETF like the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (NYSEARCA:MJ). But sometimes a targeted investment in one company or two is perhaps a smarter decision than a blunderbuss approach.

Technically, ACB stock failed at $12 per share but has so far found hard support around $4.5 dollars per share. This is a wide range of short-term pricing. However, the bulk of the action has been around $7 per share with supports the concept that somewhere in the middle of two extremes lies the truth.

When committing to a long-term thesis, I don’t worry about pennies in order to snipe the perfect entry point. I learned long ago that I don’t aim to pick the very best point of entry in momentum stocks. As long as my thesis is correct over the long-term the goal will come.

So if the marijuana trade is a viable one, and if ACB stock market does not crash in the mid-term, Aurora Cannabis stock should be higher in 2019. For now, investors will have to contend with the headline threats that loom.

We have a tariff war between the U.S. and China, we also have a U.S. Fed that’s in a tightening phase, which could hamper equity investments into 2019. But still, the macroeconomic environment looks conducive for more upside.

There’s no sugar coating it: Cannabis stocks have had a tough ride in the second half of October. Collectively, the group was hammered as the overall markets took a hit. Surprisingly though, many cannabis names held up fairly well — Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) included.

That’s as recreational marijuana became legal in Canada in mid-October. Several stocks broke out just ahead of the event, only to reverse lower and join the major selling theme of the market. It set up as one great sell-the-news event, something we weren’t surprised about when we looked at Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) earlier in the month.

With many cannabis stocks making major moves lower, it no doubt brought some investors back to the table. They want to know, is it time to buy cannabis stocks, and specifically, is ACB stock a good one to buy?

Valuing Aurora Cannabis Stock

The company’s growth is actually pretty solid, with ACB stock racking up $55 million in sales for fiscal 2018, which ended on June 30. That was a tripling from the prior year’s $18 million in sales.

While that’s great from a sales perspective, I worry about cost control in getting to that point. For instance, cost of goods sold (COGS) increased nearly 6-fold, from $2 million to $11.7 million. SG&A expenses swelled from $17 million to $72 million and total operating expenses increased from $27.7 million to $135.3 million.

Because of “other income” on the income statement, it skews net income to the positive side, implying the company earned almost $72 million last year. On the surface, that looks like 46% net profit margins, but that’s not the case by any means. So investors need to be aware of that before they take these surface numbers at face value.

Between 2017 and 2018, total debt went from $63 million to over $200 million while total cash went the opposite direction, from $159 million to $89 million. However, current assets of $219.7 million do trump current liabilities by quite a bit, with the latter standing at $75.1 million.

So where does that leave us? With ACB stock commanding $6.7 billion market cap, it’s not cheap. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) has said it’s out as a buyer or partner to the industry right now, but could PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) be into cannabis? How about other alcohol giants like Boston Beer(NYSE:SAM), Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) and others, the way Constellation Brands(NYSE:STZ) took a massive stake in Canopy Growth?

For me, Canopy is the “surest” bet in the business and that’s why if I had to bet on one, it would be with them. But that doesn’t mean others can’t buy or take stakes in ABC, Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY) and others.

Trading the ACB Stock Price

Click to Enlarge

Even before the legalization pop in mid-October and even after the bounce from sub-$6 a few days ago, ACB stock is still down from early October. So where does that leave us?

Since it’s bumping into the underside of the 100-day and 200-day moving average, now may not be the best time to go long Aurora Cannabis if you are bullish. However, I would feel more comfortable stepping into this name in the mid-$5 range.

From there, the risk-reward is much, much better. First, there’s the backside of downtrend resistance (blue line), which has been significant over the past year. There’s also uptrend support (purple line) and a notable level of support between $5.50 and $5.75. Losing all three levels would be a sign that investors need to bail on their long position. Above all three major moving averages and the $10 mark is back in sight.

Thus, there is attractive risk/reward between $5.50 and $6.

It took pot stocks just a few weeks in August and September to become the hottest investments on Wall Street. Likewise, it has taken just a few weeks in October to make them some of the coldest investments.

In August and September, pot stocks went crazy. Almost all of them rallied by more than 50%. Some doubled. Some tripled. One rose by more 1,000%. The fundamental backdrop was that pot stocks were gearing up for their biggest catalyst yet — the legalization of cannabis in Canada on Oct. 17. Everyone wanted exposure to weed prior to that catalyst.

But, as was largely expected, the legalization of weed throughout Canada became a “sell the news” event. It has been a bumpy roll-out characterized by supply shortages and consumers turning to the black market. Pot stocks, which were priced for a perfect roll out, have dropped into bear market territory as the roll out has been far from perfect.

Indeed, most pot stocks are well into bear market territory now. As of this writing, most widely followed pot stocks are down more than 30% from recent highs.

But, the long-term growth narrative remains positive. Cannabis is becoming increasingly legal on a worldwide basis, and consumer trends indicate that once legal, recreational pot could be as widely consumed as alcoholic beverages. Throw in the medical applications of cannabis, and you are talking about a market that promises to be huge.

So, is it time to buy the dip in pot stocks?

Maybe. Because the momentum is gone and the focus is back on fundamentals, you should only buy into pot stocks when the valuation makes sense. For some of these names, the valuation is starting to make sense. For others, not so much.

With that in mind, here’s a list of three pot stocks investors should be watching during this selloff.

Canopy Growth (CGC)

Time and time again, I’ve claimed the best investment in the cannabis sector is Canopy Growth(NYSE:CGC).

Due to its early market leadership, distinguished track record, biggest production capacity, widest portfolio of brands and billion dollar partnership with alcoholic beverage giant Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), CGC stock is head-and-shoulders above other pot stocks when it comes to investment attractiveness. But, that didn’t make CGC stock immune to broad cannabis sector weakness. As I warned in mid-October, all pot stocks — CGC included — are due for weakness in the near term.

Fast forward a week. CGC stock has dropped more than 30% since then. Time to buy the dip?

I think so. There may be more weakness ahead as the Canadian cannabis roll out continues to be bumpy. But, CGC stock is now nearing levels it was at just after the STZ investment. Those levels seem fundamentally supported by STZ’s $4 billion investment, and as such, I don’t see the market sending CGC stock below the low $30’s any time soon.

Meanwhile, reasonably optimistic growth assumptions point to healthy long-term upside for CGC stock.

As such, now looks like a good time to start gradually buying the dip in CGC stock.

Tilray (TLRY)

Just as I’ve reiterated time and time again that Canopy Growth was the best investment in the cannabis sector, I have also warned time and time again that Tilray (NSDSAQ:TLRY) is the most overvalued.

Despite having lower sales than CGC, a less distinguished track record, smaller production capacity, a more narrow portfolio of brands and no billion dollar partnership, TLRY stock has been rewarded in the stock market with a bigger valuation than CGC stock. This discrepancy doesn’t make sense, and it’s why TLRY stock fell the hardest during this recent correction. Over the past few weeks, TLRY stock is down more than 35%. It’s also more than 50% off September highs.

Unfortunately, this valuation disconnect still hasn’t fixed itself. As of this writing, Canopy has a market cap of $7.5 billion. Tilray has a market cap of over $9 billion. That relative valuation disconnect shouldn’t exist, and so long as it does, Tilray stock will struggle.

As such, I don’t think this recent dip in TLRY is worth buying. The company has healthy long-term growth drivers. But, at a $9 billion-plus valuation with smaller market share than peers, all that growth is already priced in, and then some. With momentum now favoring the bears, investors can afford to wait for TLRY stock to come down further before speculating on long-term upside.

Cronos (CRON)

Next to Canopy, my second-favorite pot stock is Cronos (NASDAQ:CRON). But, even though I’ve favored this name over peers, I also warned in mid-October that buying then was dangerous.

Since then, CRON stock has come down about 30% to levels not seen since shortly after the big Constellation Brands investment into Canopy. That is a big wipe-out in a short amount of time. And, it has left CRON stock undervalued.

Cronos has a market cap of just $1.3 billion, versus $5 billion-plus market caps at Tilray and Canopy. A big reason for the lower valuation is lower production capacity. CRON has planned production capacity of roughly 1.2 million square feet, versus 3.8 million square feet for TLRY and 5.6 million for CGC.

But, each square foot of Cronos production capacity is being undervalued relative to Tilray and Canopy’s. The market cap per square foot of planned production is about $2,350 at TLRY and $1,350 at CGC. At CRON, it is just $1,100.

That doesn’t make much sense, especially considering Cronos is projecting yield of 110,000 kilograms of cannabis on those 1.2 million square feet. That equates to almost 100 grams of weed per square foot, which is a very attractive yield.

As such, once pot stocks stabilize from recent volatility, CRON stock could be a buy. I still think CGC stock is the best in class, but CRON stock offers relative valuation upside that is quite attractive.

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Pot stocks are as hot in 2018 as bitcoin was in 2017.

Advocates insist, however, that marijuana will not suffer the same fate because there is a real market to be served — and a real product to sell. Canadian legalization alone is expected to result in sales of $5-7 billion next year, and many U.S. states are looking enviously at Colorado, the first state to legalize recreational marijuana.

Thus, valuations in the cannabis sector are extremely high, and they have recently been correcting.

The Canadian market officially opens Wednesday, so speculation and excitement over pot stocks are at a fever pitch. It’s not just about smoking. Edibles, oils and the possibility of pharmaceuticals are also driving money into the market.

And in this still very speculative space, every pot stock has to have a gimmick, which lets it stand out and convinces investors that it’s less risky than those other marijuana stocks. This gimmick could be a corporate investment, it could be technology or it could be raw distribution power waiting for the U.S. market to open up.

Here are 3 pot stocks with less risk.

Canopy Growth (CGC)

What makes Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) stand out among pot stocks is the $4 billion Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) put into the company a few months ago.

Constellation is one of the largest — and smartest — liquor companies in the world, having begun as a small New York wine producer and grown into a giant with beer brands such as Modelo and liquor brands such as Svedka vodka.

Constellation is a legitimate player, with $7.5 billion in revenue, a dividend of nearly $3 per year, and a market cap of $42.66 billion. Their willingness to put a big portion of that into Canopy, for a 38% stake, put the whole sector into overdrive.

CGC stock’s $11.46 billion market cap, however, is built on sales of $77 million in 2017, $48 million for the first six months of 2018, and a lot of hype. On October 15, Canopy paid about $330 million to acquire the assets of Ebbu, a hemp research company in Colorado.

Cronos Group (CRON)

What sets Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) apart — besides its partnerships with pharmaceutical companies like Gingko Bioworks, which wants to produce cannabinoids through fermentation — is the fact that it was the first pot company to list on the Nasdaq. Also, since listing in Canada in 2016, CRON’s value has grown 6,500%.

CRON’s valuation is not built on sales, however. Cronos reported revenue of just over $4 million in 2017, and about $6 million for the first six months of 2018. The balance sheet showed just $5.3 million in debt in June, against $9.2 million in cash, and operating cash flow was approaching balance.

By pushing the idea of marijuana as a pharmaceutical, and as a raw material from which drugs can be extracted, Cronos hopes to enter the U.S. market with products before mass legalization, and thus gain scale it can use to grow into the market as it matures.

Of five analysts following the stock, two currently have it on their buy lists.

MedMen (MMNFF)

MedMen Enterprises (OTCMKTS:MMNFF), based in Culver City, CA, makes no pretense to being anything than what it is: a marijuana dispensary. It’s not a Canadian company, and it’s not a pharmaceutical company. It sells pot to medical marijuana patients who need it and recreational users — in locations where recreational use is legal.

The goal of MedMen is to gain distribution in the medical pot business that will let it expand into the recreational side as it develops. It has dispensaries in 4 U.S. states, including high-profile locations like Manhattan and Las Vegas.

MedMen went public in May but the stock didn’t see much action until last week. MedMen announced an acquisition of PharmaCann for a reported $682 million in stock. Buying medical will add licensed dispensaries in other states, mainly in the Midwest, to its network, giving it a total of 79 cannabis facilities in 12 states.

The deal sent MMNFF stock rocketing. Since the announcement, the stock is up 51%. While other pot stocks have been falling lately, MedMen is powering ahead.

CEO Adam Bierman said that the acquisition makes MedMen “the largest U.S. cannabis company in the world’s largest cannabis market” — and that sounds like a good place to be in as more U.S. states move toward full legalization.

Even in America’s reddest states, favorable conditions for medical marijuana stocks could emerge soon. A permissive medical marijuana law received voter approval in Oklahoma earlier this year. Also, Republicans in Texas recently approved medical marijuana in their party platform. Cannabis’ days as a Schedule I drug are likely numbered. When this status changes, investing in medically-related marijuana stocks could reach a fever pitch in the fourth quarter and beyond.

Right now, most pot stocks trade on the OTC market and base themselves in Canada. The thirst for American investment has led more marijuana stocks to list on the NYSE and Nasdaq already, but more will likely join them when cannabis’ Schedule I designation ceases to exist. Both the designation swith and increased U.S. listing should flood more investment capital into the marijuana industry, driving stock prices higher. While many of these marijuana stocks have already achieved high valuations, investors could still more gains.

These four medical marijuana stocks are perfect to get into now before the interest in pot stocks becomes even bigger:

CannTrust Holdings, Inc. (CNTTF)

Vaughan, Ontario-based CannTrust (OTCMKTS:CNTTF) exists as a federally-regulated medical marijuana producer within Canada. It produces a 100% pesticide-free medical-grade cannabis and cannabis oils. The company also conducts medical research on marijuana-related drug products. CannTrust partnered with McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences on medical research trials.

CannTrust just completed their first overseas shipment of cannabis oil to Denmark-based StenoCare. CannTrust’s cannabis oil is the first and only to gain acceptance on the Danish Medicine List thus far. Incidentally, StenoCare will launch Europe’s first IPO by a medical marijuana company next month. Such a move will likely expand CannTrust’s reach within Europe.

From a financial perspective, CannTrust outshines most other marijuana stocks in one area — making a profit. Analysts forecast it will earn 11 cents CAD (8.5 cents U.S.) per share in 2018. They expect that to grow to 38 cents CAD (29 cents) per share in 2019. While that brings the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 115, CNTTF still compares well to other profitable peers. Moreover, if the stock price were to stay the same over the next year, that P/E would fall to just over 33.

This marijuana stock’s profit should rise as its recreational brands also gain traction. With supply agreements in place in the Atlantic provinces, CannTrust now can sell across Canada. And with a schedule change in the U.S., its medical products could move south of the border. With the high growth potential and the financial stability, CNTTF one of the few cannabis stocks that will prosper under any conditions.

Hexo Corp. (HYYDF)

Hexo Corp. (OTCMKTS:HYYDF) develops and produces medical marijuana products for the Canadian market. Formerly known as Hydropothecary, this company offers a wide variety of cannabis-based products to treat various conditions.

Hexo has taken a slower approach than most of its peers. Unlike others, it has kept its focus to its core region, in this case, Quebec. However, that creates advantages. Through supply agreements, this should give the company a market share of about 34% within Quebec. Quebec also happens to border four pot-friendly U.S. states. If the U.S. market were to become available, Hexo could expand to New York and New England while keeping to its regional market.

Despite its smaller footprint, investors still need to look at HYYDF stock. It makes 24 different products ranging from tried products like cannabis flowers and cannabis powder to a fine cannabis mist. The company also works in conjunction with Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) on cannabis-infused drinks.

Since the company has not spent heavily on expansion, analysts expect the company will break even next quarter. This should make the company profitable by the fourth quarter of this year. Consensus estimates for 2019 place profits at five cents CAD (3.9 cents) per share.

That gives the company a 2019 forward P/E ratio of about 129. This ratio should come down in future years, and it still compares favorably to most marijuana stocks. With its forecasted profits and its go-it-slow approach, I think HYYDF will not only survive, but thrive.

MariMed Inc. (MRMD)

MariMed (OTCMKTS:MRMD) specializes in medical-marijuana consulting. As a company, it helps others optimize production and sales for both the medical and legal cannabis firms. It helps to design production facilities to grow safe medical cannabis. It also offers business planning services to cannabis companies. Additionally, MariMed produces its own proprietary products that it sells under the MariMed brand name.

Such a business could help medical marijuana companies in Canada bring product into the U.S. once marijuana ceases to be a Schedule I drug. Moreover, it should help cannabis enterprises produce more medical marijuana as legal roadblocks gradually disappear. According to their last quarterly report, the company has initiated plans to operate in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Also, when non-cash charges are excluded, MRMD could call itself one of the profitable marijuana stocks. The company earned $530,000 in the first six months of the year. Due to stock option issuance and payment of debt via stock sales, the company reported an $8.1 million loss.

However, this shows MariMed can earn money. Profits should move much higher once more markets open up as well. With its own product line and its consulting business positioned in multiple states, MRMD should grow along with the U.S.’s weed industry.

OrganiGram Holdings, Inc. (OGRMF)

Unlike its peers, OrganiGram (OTCMKTS:OGRMF) takes a unique approach to medical pot. It focuses on treatments for conditions such as PTSD and chronic pain.

The firm also emphasizes partnerships. The company will invest in Eviana Health Corporation, a European, cannabinoid-focused hemp company. With Europe more ready than ever to embrace legalization, this gives OrganiGram an early advantage.

OrganiGram also signed a deal with Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC). Under terms of the agreement, OrganiGram will provide Canopy’s Tweed retail locations in Newfoundland and Labrador with branded cannabis products. Since Canopy also made a deal with Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), this creates that much-needed U.S. connection. This agreement could lead to a medical marijuana agreement in the U.S. whenever the government permits Canadian medical cannabis products.

Analysts also expect OrganiGram to begin reporting profitability beginning in the fourth quarter. For 2019, consensus earnings stand at 14 cents CAD (11 cents) per share.

At current prices, this takes the 2019 forward P/E ratio to about 48.6. Given where other marijuana stocks trade, this makes OGRMF a safer bet than most. Also, with its connections to Europe and now, an indirect contact in the U.S., OrganiGram should place itself in a strong market position once sales in the U.S. and Europe take off.

As of this writing, Will Healy is long CNTTF stock.

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