7 Stocks to Buy for Big May Dividend Hikes

While most income investors are reaching for big yields right now, a small group of “hidden yield” stocks are quietly handing smart investors growing income streams plus annual returns of 12%, 27.1% and even 54% or more per year.

So if you want to double your money every few years – and double your income as well – then you need to focus on the seven stocks I’m about to share.

(All seven are about to hike their dividends. Yet the “forward-looking market” hasn’t yet priced in these payout raises. This is free money the market is giving us, thanks to the most “underrated” shareholder return vehicle.)

The Most Lucrative Way Shareholders Get Paid

There are three – and only three – ways a company’s stock can pay us:

  1. A cash dividend.
  2. A dividend hike.
  3. By repurchasing its own shares.

Everyone loves the dividend, but investors usually don’t give enough love to the dividend hike. Not only do these raises increase the yield on your initial capital, but also they often are reflected in a price increase for the stock.

For example, if a stock pays a 3% current yield and then hikes its payout by 10%, it’s unlikely that its stock price will stagnate for long. Investors will see the new 3.3% yield, and buy more shares.

They’ll drive the price up, and the yield back down – eventually towards 3%. This is why your favorite dividend “aristocrat” – a company everyone knows and has paid dividends forever – never pays a high current yield. Its stock price rises too fast!

For example let’s look at Verizon (VZ), it pays a generous dividend – but doesn’t raise it meaningfully. This lack of payout upside caps the stock’s price upside.

Frustrated Verizon investors need not look further than this chart for an illustration of why their money is underperforming:

Verizon’s Sleepy Dividend Slows the Stock

Verizon’s stock and dividend have increased by roughly the same amount. That’s no coincidence – it happens all the time.

You’ll also notice that the firm’s track record of “yearly dividend raises” means little because the raises themselves weren’t meaningful.

This a common mistake dividend aristocrat fans make when they flock to track records. They’re not that far off the scent of 100%+ gains, however. They just need to look ahead, rather than behind. Let me explain.

The Path to Fast 162% Gains From Safe Blue Chips

Have you always wanted to buy a safe blue chip stock like Coca-Cola (KO) and get rich from it like Warren Buffett?

It’s doable. But most investors “live in the past” and fixate on dividend track records rather than a payout’s forward prospects. And looking ahead is the key to yearly gains of 12%, 27.1% or even 54% or more with blue chip stocks.

Let’s first consider the case of Coke, which achieved its dividend royalty status in 1987 (its 25th straight year with a dividend hike). The firm hit its coronation with a head of steam, rewarding investors with a 362% payout hike in just five years (from 1986 to 1991). Its stock price raced to keep up with its dividend, rising 234% over the same time period:

Great Dividend Growth, Great Returns

It didn’t really matter if you bought shares before or after the company was officially a dividend aristocrat. The driving factor for profits was the dividend’s velocity – it was moving higher quickly, so its stock price followed.

Fast forward to the last five years, and we see that Coke’s youthful exuberance has slowed considerably. The firm still hikes its payout every year, but it’s a slower climb – totaling 45% over the past five years. Which means its stock price merely plods along too (+25% in five years):

Average Dividend Growth, Average Returns

If you’re looking for great dividend growth in 2018, you should focus on these seven firms about to raise their payouts.

Tiffany & Co. (TIF)
Dividend Yield: 2.1%

Luxury goods company Tiffany & Co. (TIF), like many other retail stocks, is struggling to find any positive momentum whatsoever in 2018. The stock is off more than 9% through the first few months of the year – far worse than the broader market’s 1.9% declines.

That said, it’s not all thorns for Tiffany.

Just a few months ago, the company reported a solid holiday-season quarter that included a 5% jump in comparable-store sales and an 8% improvement in the top line, largely bolstered by impressive performances from the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. That led Tiffany to upgrade its own outlook for the fiscal year’s profits.

Sometime near the end of May, shareholders should be on the receiving end of another dividend hike. Tiffany has upgraded its payout by nearly 50% over the past five years, and is likely to tack on an additional bump during the last week of the month.

Phillips 66 (PSX)
Dividend Yield: 2.9%

Phillips 66 (PSX) is a welcome breath of fresh air in the energy space. That’s because while many energy stocks were slowing dividend growth down to a trickle during the oil-price collapse starting in summer 2014 – or even cutting payouts – Phillips 66 has kept the income pipeline flowing.

Namely, since 2014, this refiner and midstream company has juiced its dividend by nearly 80%, including a substantial 11% hike last year.

PSX should have plenty of ammunition for another dividend increase come early May, when it typically makes an announcement. That’s because the company reported yet another excellent quarter a couple months ago that beat the pants off analyst estimates – profits of $1.07 per share were well ahead of the consensus estimate of 86 cents.

But the spending won’t end there. Phillips 66 also plans to spend $500 million more on capital expenditures in 2018 than it did in 2017, which should fuel growth over the coming years.

Southside Bancshares (SBSI)
Dividend Yield: 3.2%

While the run-up in banks has left yields in the financial space awfully dry, Southside Bancshares (SBSI) offers a respectable yield of above 3%. That’s in some part thanks to an aggressive dividend policy that has seen the company raise payouts multiple times a year over the past few years.

Southside, by the way, is the bank holding company behind Texas community bank Southside Bank, which controls about $6.5 billion in assets across 60 branches within the state. There’s nothing out of the ordinary about this bank – it provides typical services such as mortgages, personal loans, and checking and savings accounts.

What is unusual about SBSI is its dividend program, which has featured varying numbers of increases across the past few years. But one thing that’s pretty consistent is the company announcing a dividend hike sometime in mid-May.

Leggett & Platt (LEG)
Dividend Yield: 3.2%

What would a list of potential dividend increases be without a Dividend Aristocrat?

Leggett & Platt is one of the more diversified manufacturers out there, producing a swath of products used in businesses, in homes and even in transit. Just a few examples? Its residential products include bedding, carpet cushions and furniture fasteners; its industrial products include various types of wires and sterling steel rods; and it even boasts an aerospace division that includes tubes and ducts.

That diversification has allowed Leggett to build a 47-year history of interrupted dividend increases, and No. 48 should be on the way in May. The company typically makes an announcement during the middle of the month.

Agree Realty (ADC)
Dividend Yield: 4.2%

Agree Realty (ADC) is a net-lease retail real estate investment trust that owns 458 assets in 43 states, making up about 8.8 million square feet of gross leasable space. Tenants include the likes of Walgreens (WBA)McDonald’s (MCD) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

It’s also a dedicated dividend raiser. Agree Realty has actually doled out a pair of dividend increases in each of the past couple years, and if history repeats itself, the company should be due for another dividend hike sometime in May.

Of course, the question is “when”? The company’s declaration dates have been all over the place – sometimes at the end of the month, sometimes at the beginning, and it has even stretched the announcement out into June before.

Stag Industrial (STAG)
Dividend Yield: 5.9%

Stag Industrial (STAG) is a highly respected monthly dividend stock that plays in the single-tenant industrial real estate space. That includes warehouse, distribution and light manufacturing facilities.

At the moment, the portfolio includes 356 buildings in 37 states, spread across numerous industries, including automotive, air freight, containers & packaging, food & beverages and business services, among others. The tenant list is diverse, too, and spread out – the largest tenant (the U.S. General Services Administration) makes up just 2.6% of ABR. Other tenants include XPO Logistics (XPO)Deckers Outdoor (DECK) and Solo Cup.

While Stag’s dividend increases tend not to take effect until the dividend paid out in August, it tends to announce said increase sometime in the first week of May. The company typically hikes its payout twice a year, though it did keep it to “just”  one increase in 2016.

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP)
Dividend Yield: 8.7%

Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) is one of the largest energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) in the country, boasting more than 15,000 miles of transmission pipelines, 170 billion cubic feet of nat-gas storage and about 5.6 million barrels of crude oil storage, according to its own most recent data.

Spectra also is one of the more prolific payout raisers in energy.

The company has raised its distribution by about 50% over the past five years, which is plenty respectable. But Spectra has done it in style, announcing its 41st consecutive quarterly increase to its distribution in February.

No. 42 is likely coming sometime in the first week of the month.

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Source: Contrarian Outlook 

10 Stocks to Buy for the Perfect All-Cap Portfolio

best stocks

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When the average investor considers an all-cap ETF or mutual fund, it’s usually filled with large-cap stocks to buy with very little consideration for smaller companies despite the fact that small- and mid-cap stocks often deliver periods of excellent performance when large caps aren’t delivering the goods.

The point of an all-cap portfolio, as I see it, is to own a collection of stocks that represent companies of various sizes both large and small. Personally, in my experience, an all-cap portfolio equally weighted with large-, mid-, small- and micro-cap stocks tend to do better like a sports team than one that’s weighted to larger companies whose growth is generally slower.

However, many investors would be hesitant to include such a heavy weighting in stocks of less than $300 million in market cap so most all-cap ETFs and mutual funds tend to be large caps with a small helping of mid-caps.

These are the 10 stocks to buy for the perfect all-cap portfolio.

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Apple (AAPL)

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Apple (AAPL)

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In the past, I’ve mentioned Howard Lindzon in articles I’m discussing because I love the way he thinks about investing. One of his recent newsletter posts discussed how Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) isn’t one of the sexiest or most exciting stocks he owns but he’s keeping it for now.

As large-cap stocks go, you can get no bigger. It’s the largest publicly traded company in the world. Apple might not be innovating at the pace it once did, but it’s still delivering great products that do what they’re supposed to.

Except, Lindzon also pointed me to a review of Apple’s AirPods that suggests it still knows a thing or two about designing products customers want.

“Apple’s AirPods design, which I initially ridiculed, is actually the best and most functional one available for truly wireless buds today,” wrote Vlad Savov in The Verge March 19. “Because Apple moved the Bluetooth electronics and batteries to the stem, it was able to use the full cavity of each bud for sound reproduction. That’s how the AirPods reproduce a wider soundstage than most Bluetooth earbuds without being any thicker or protruding from the ear.”

It’s something when you can take a big-time audiophile like Savov is reputed to be and turn his opinion 180 degrees from negative to positive.

So, before you give up on AAPL stock, remember that it has plenty of cash to continue developing products consumers enjoy. You can’t put a price on that.

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK)

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Not quite as big a large cap as Apple, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.A, NYSE:BRK.B) probably has the best-known CEO of any S&P 500 company.

Who hasn’t heard of Warren Buffett?

Famously honest with his shareholders, I wouldn’t be surprised if ethics professors studied Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders. They’re classic re-tellings of the year that just was — the happenings both good and bad.

I recently highlighted what I thought was the best quote from the 2017 letter.

“In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price,” stated Buffett on page four of the 2017 letter. “That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high.”

Buffett’s not perfect.

His stubborn support for Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), a bank that faces up to $1 billion in fines from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for auto insurance and mortgage lending abuses, is a bit mystifying, but when you have the kind of assets Berkshire Hathaway has, it’s easier to be patient.

Personally, if you only could own two stocks, I’d recommend Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: JD.Com (JD)

A few months ago, I wrote an article about JD.Com Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:JDsuggesting that regarding value, JD stock was unquestionably a better buy than Alibaba Group Holding Ltd(NYSE:BABA).

Since that time, both stocks have flatlined.  While I like what Jack Ma’s done at Alibaba, I see what JD.com CEO Richard Liu is doing to build a global supply chain and can’t help think that is going to be the difference between success and failure for the company as it expands outside China.

I also see it growing faster than Jeff Bezos’s company did at the same time in its corporate history; I consider the risk to reward to be incredibly attractive.

Sure, it’s the riskiest of the large-cap stocks mentioned here, but JD.com also has the most upside.

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Large-Cap Stocks to Buy: Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Source: Shutterstock

The other day I happened to read an article about Symphony of the Seas, the world’s largest cruise ship that Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE:RCL) just launched. It’s a fascinating story of how cruise ships became the ultimate in modern hospitality and entertainment.

Since my wife and I got married on Majesty of the Seas in February 2005, one of RCL’s smaller, older ships, I’ve been fascinated by the cruising experience although we’ve never been on one since. I love the idea of visiting some ports without having to pack and unpack several times during a vacation. I suppose that’s why people also love motorhomes.

Anyway, CEO Richard Fain’s been the head of the cruise line since 1988, which is a long time to be in charge of any organization these days, but especially so at one built on the necessity of change.

His tenure is amazing.

Interestingly, millennials are said to like cruising more than boomers or Gen Xers, which means Fain might have to stick around for another 30 years to get the company through the changes bound to come down the pike.

I see smooth sailing ahead for RCL stock.

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Gildan (GIL)

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Gildan (GIL)

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If you love investing in dividend stocks, Gildan Activewear Inc. (NYSE:GIL) ought to have your attention, because the Montreal-based maker of t-shirts and underwear does a good job growing its annual dividend payment.

On April 4, I identified as a company increasing its annual dividend payment by double digits. It raised its quarterly dividend Feb. 22 by 20% to $0.112-a-share, the sixth consecutive year to raise its annual dividend by 20%.

Seven years ago, it paid an annual dividend of $0.11-a-share. Today, that’s up to $0.45-a-share. In that time, revenues have increased by a billion dollars to $2.8 billion, while operating income has almost doubled from $239 million to $424 million in 2017.

Down more than 8% year-to-date, you’re getting GIL at prices near its 52-week low.

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Axalta Coatings (AXTA)

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Axalta Coatings (AXTA)

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I was going to recommend Wabco Holdings Inc. (NYSE:WBC) as one of my three mid-cap stocks because I remember Warren Buffett owning it for the longest time. However, he sold off the last of the company’s shares in the second quarter of 2017.

Instead, I noticed Berkshire Hathaway owns a little more than 23 million shares of Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (NYSE:AXTA), which the company has owned since it bought most of them in a private deal in 2015 for $28 a share. Now finally making money on his investment, it’s possible that Buffett, as the largest shareholder, could buy the entire company to combine with its Benjamin Moore paint business.

Axalta’s fourth-quarter results were an improvement over the previous quarter providing a ray of hope for the manufacturer of performance coatings for commercial applications including vehicles and building facades to prevent corrosion.

“Axalta’s fourth quarter demonstrated a return to solid growth following our more challenged third quarter result, with net sales and Adjusted EBITDA performance both at or above our revised guidance ranges,” said Charles W. Shaver, Axalta’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Feb. 6. “Our stated expectation of improved financial performance beginning in the fourth quarter was met and was supported by the broad-based market strength and sound execution by our business teams.”

If Buffett didn’t own Axalta, I’d be less interested, but he does, and so I am.

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Nordstrom (JWN)

Mid-Cap Stocks to Buy: Nordstrom (JWN)

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Investors were disappointed March 20 by news from the special committee advising the Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) board that the Nordstrom family couldn’t pull together a decent deal to acquire the company they founded and still run.

Although it hasn’t been a good time for most department stores in the past three years, Nordstrom’s stock has held up slightly better than its peers over this period, who’ve seen annual losses of close to 13%.

Although the door has closed on the Nordstrom family buying its namesake, the company continues to push on with its future plans. In March, it announced that it had acquired two small tech companies — BevyUp and MessageYes — whose technology allows retail employees to keep in contact with customers when not in the store.

Nordstrom has always been about the customer experience; these two acquisitions will help it maintain its leadership position in this very important part of retailing.

And let’s not forget, Nordstrom generated record revenue of $15.1 billion in fiscal 2017, while also increasing EBIT profits by 15% to almost $1 billion. Department stores might be suffering more than usual but Nordstrom’s not exactly ready for the bargain bin just yet.

Up year-to-date by 2%, I expect the company’s Rack and e-commerce businesses to make up for any softness in the full-line stores.

Small-Cap Stocks to Buy: Callaway Golf (ELY)

Small-Cap Stocks to Buy: Callaway Golf (ELY)

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The Masters just finished up for another year delivering an exciting finish that saw Patrick Reed fend off Ricky Fowler by one stroke and the hard-charging Jordan Spieth by two.

Golf is getting exciting again and not just because Tiger Woods is starting to make some competitive noise. Parents are starting to come to the conclusion that violent sports such as football aren’t healthy for their children’s long-term cognitive skills and are pushing them into sports like golf and swimming.

A quick look at a five-year chart of Callaway Golf Co (NYSE:ELY) shows a gradual improvement that’s taken the stock from less than $7 in 2013 to almost $17 today. Up 21% year-to-date through April 6, a lot of that has to do with its improving financials.

In 2017, Callaway grew operating income by 78% to $79 million on revenue of $1.05 billion, itself a 20% increase over last year.

In December, I suggested that Callaway would produce a four straight year of positive returns. Although it’s early, my prediction is looking pretty good.

In my opinion, ELY is a small-cap stock to own beyond 2018.

Small-Cap Stocks to Buy: Restoration Hardware (RH)

Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE:RH) has got to be one of the most mercurial small-cap stocks trading on a U.S. exchange. It’s up and down by major chunks at a time — most recently, it jumped more than 20% after announcing better than expected Q4 2017 earnings — as investors try to figure out whether its move into higher-end furniture and interior design will generate sustainable earnings.

Well, if the fourth quarter is any indication, it will and it can.

The company announced $1.05 a share in Q4 2017 adjusted earnings, 46 cents higher than analysts were expecting. The retailer is doing better as a result of its move to a club membership where customers pay $100 per year to get 25% off everything sold in the store including interior design services.

In its earnings press release, CEO Gary Friedman stated that 95% of its revenue comes from members. Its move from a promotional business model to that of a club has delivered higher profits and free cash flow from lower inventory.

Not only that, but its first three stores with restaurants in Chicago, Toronto and West Palm Beach are all performing well above expectations generating significant traffic for the stores themselves. The West Palm restaurant is expected to generate $7 million in 2018, a huge number.

As InvestorPlace contributor Vince Martin recently suggested, RH shorts got caught in a short-squeeze of epic proportions. Long-term, I think this model makes a lot of sense. I said as much in 2016; nothing has changed in my opinion.

Micro-Cap Stocks to Buy: Red Lion Hotels (RLH)

Micro-Cap Stocks to Buy: Red Lion Hotels (RLH)

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Once upon a time, I wrote about micro-cap stocks more frequently; I found them to be a great addition to the typical portfolio filled with large-cap and mid-cap stocks. Today, micro-cap stocks (market cap less than $300 million) seem so foreign to me.

Of the 47 micro-cap stocks I found that had a PEG ratio higher than 1 and trading at less than 20 times operating cash flow, Red Lion Hotels Corporation (NYSE:RLH) appears to be the best bet to fill out my all-cap portfolio.

The Colorado hotel franchiser recently purchased the Knights Inn brand of hotels from Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:WYN) for $27 million. The deal gives Red Lion 350 additional properties and brings the total number of hotels it operates to almost 1,500 in the U.S. and Canada.

As a result of the purchase, Red Lion becomes one of the top 10 hotel franchisers in the world. Like many hotel companies these days, it runs an asset-light business model.

In 2017, RLH generated $172 million in revenue and operating income of $1.1 million, a significant improvement from 2016. The acquisition of the Knights Inn brand will continue to improve the top- and bottom-line.

Red Lion Hotels flies under the radar of most investors. You might want to check this hotel stock out a little closer.

Get up to 14 dividend paychecks per month from safe, reliable stocks with The Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar, an easy-to-use system that shows you which dividend stocks to pick, when to buy them, when you get paid your dividends, and how much.  All you have to do is buy the stocks you like and tell them where to send your dividend payments. For more information Click Here.


Source: Investor Place 

Spotify Technology SA’s First Hardware Release Could Be In-Car Player

Source: Spotify

Several days ago, Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) sent an invitation to media for an April 24th event. No clues as to what is on the itinerary, other than a vague “news announcement.”

However, the company had earlier sent some of its customers an offer for an in-car Spotify player –apparently by mistake, as the offers quickly disappeared. Given that hint and Spotify’s rumored interest in hardware, there’s a good chance that the Spotify event will be to announce this device.

Given that SPOT stock just started trading last week, the event coming so soon after could have a significant impact.

Spotify’s Hardware Ambitions

Spotify remains the world’s biggest music streaming service. That position has ensured that most smart speakers — with the notable exception of Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) HomePod — support the service. Each of these are, in effect, a Spotify player, but they are also one firmware update away from losing that support.

However, the company is clearly not content to rely on third party hardware. In February, job postings revealed that Spotify hardware was in the pipeline. Given the huge growth of the smart speaker market, and the involvement of so many tech companies (many of which also operate their own competing streaming music services), Spotify’s interest wasn’t unexpected.

In-Car Spotify Player Leaked

Another hint about what the company was up to also arrived in February, when a number of Spotify customers received an offer from the company. It showed a round device with an LED ring, several physical controls and it was clearly mounted on a dashboard. An in-car Spotify player.

According to The Verge, the offer of an in-car Spotify player went out to multiple subscribers. And there were variations. For some, the Spotify hardware was offered as part of a $12.99 subscription; for others, it was $14.99 per month. On some, the device offered a cellular connectivity option. Some customers were told it supported Amazon.com, Inc.’s(NASDAQ:AMZN) Alexa voice assistant.

The two things all of these occurrences had in common were that the hardware was clearly an in-car Spotify player, and the offers quickly disappeared.

April 24th Spotify Event

That brings us to the mysterious April 24 Spotify event. What news would the company be releasing that is important enough to justify summoning journalists to New York?

Spotify hardware seems like a safe bet. But the clues from February could be pointing to that in-car Spotify player instead of a smart speaker. And that would make sense from a strategic viewpoint as well. The smart speaker market is huge and growing rapidly, but it is dominated by Amazon. Trying to break in can be risky if everything is not perfect.

Apple’s HomePod is a good example of how your own streaming music service, a big name and quality hardware are no guarantee of making a big splash. Having a Spotify smart speaker debut and possibly flop would not be good news for SPOT stock.

The one place those smart speakers aren’t located, though, is in cars. Spotify listeners spend a lot of time in their cars, and while some newer models may include a system like Apple’s CarPlay, the majority of listeners are probably relying on a smartphone connected to the car stereo using Bluetooth to stream music. There’s an opportunity for Spotify to grab a leadership position by releasing a standalone in-car Spotify player that would let its customers stream music without having to use their smartphones.

It could possibly even boost its subscriber base — especially with those offers that were trialed that added a few dollars to a monthly Spotify subscription instead of requiring a cash outlay. It doesn’t have the same risk as going head-to-head with the mighty Amazon Echo, but could pave the way for doing so later.

We’ll have to wait until April 24 to find out for certain what the company has planned. But an in-car Spotify player seems like a leading contender at this point. And the entry into hardware — especially a market where competition isn’t as fierce as the living room — could have significant upside for SPOT stock.

Get up to 14 dividend paychecks per month from safe, reliable stocks with The Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar, an easy-to-use system that shows you which dividend stocks to pick, when to buy them, when you get paid your dividends, and how much.  All you have to do is buy the stocks you like and tell them where to send your dividend payments. For more information Click Here.


Source: Investors Place

The Hidden Beneficiary of the Electric Car Revolution

Ask the average investor the biggest beneficiary of the move around the world toward electric vehicles and the likely answer will be Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA). I only wish I could press a very loud buzzer informing them they are wrong. Tesla is just one ‘horse’ in a very crowded field of automakers.

I know that you know better, or else you wouldn’t be reading this right now. Surging demand for the technology metals that I bring to your attention promises to overturn the balance of power between mining companies and their customers. So says the billionaire mining entrepreneur and legend Robert Friedland that I introduced to you in the very first issue of Growth Stock Confidential.

I am total agreement with Friedland… electric vehicles are an extremely good long-term growth story for both the technology and industrial metals.

However, that doesn’t mean there still aren’t overlooked winners, hiding in plain sight that will be among the beneficiaries of the electric car revolution. Here’s a clue from an Elon Musk quote, “Our lithium-ion batteries should be called nickel-graphite.”

Yes, the industrial metal nickel is poised to be a big winner in the electric car revolution. Most people think nickel is just used in the making of stainless steel. But there is one particular form of nickel (more on that later) though that is crucial to the lithium-ion batteries that power electric cars.

Related: 3 Electric Car Winners That Don’t Sell Electric Cars… Or Batteries Either

And while stainless steel still accounts for 85% of nickel consumption and batteries only 3%, demand from battery makers for nickel this year has soared 44% this year. Demand from battery makers is where nickel’s future growth will come from.

Nickel and Electric Cars

Nickel has been a terrible investment for the past few years, as it has been weighed down by excess mine supplies and bulging inventories. Nickel collapsed from its high in 2007 of $51,600 a ton to around $8,000 a ton in 2015. Just look at this 15-year chart.

This is all about to change and in a major way, thanks to electric vehicles. We are already seeing hints of this as in early November nickel had rallied to a two-year high.

The excitement is building for nickel among metals industry insiders. In fact, the biggest buzz at this year’s annual LME (London Metal Exchange) week in London in early October was surrounding stodgy nickel. It emerging as one of the favored ways to play the electric vehicle supply chain. The expectation is that nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries may gain a lot of market share because of their ability to allow motorists to drive further on a single charge.

Among the topics at the conference was a very conservative forecast for the number of electric vehicles on the road by 2025 is 14.2 million from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie. In 2016, there were 2.4 million electric vehicles on the road.

If this happens, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that demand from the auto industry will rise from 40,000 metric tons in 2016 to 220,000 tons in 2025. The global nickel market is only 2.1 million tons in size. And when you consider other components needed by electric cars outside of the battery, the Wood Mackenzie figure climbs to 275,000 tons – 12% of global supply.

This is an eye-opening in the light of the fact that nickel inventories are finally shrinking. Most of that is due to high demand coming from China. Estimates are that demand there is up 3.8% to 1.1 million tons through the first 10 months of 2017.

Analysts at the investment bank UBS say that there will be a 71,000 ton deficit this year, while others say the nickel deficit is as high as 150,000 tons. Whatever the correct amount of the deficit is, one thing is certain – it is eating into the amount of inventory overhang.

Mining companies will just be able to crank up the amount of nickel they mine, so it’s no problem, right? That’s what some Wall Street analysts say that really don’t know what they’re talking about.

Nickel Sulphate

You see, the majority of nickel production coming onstream through 2025 is of the low-quality variety – ferronickel or nickel pig iron. Both of which cannot supply the much-needed nickel sulphate for electric car batteries.

Nickel sulphate is produced by dissolving pure high-grade nickel metal, called Class 1, in sulphuric acid. That is why nickel sulphate prices this year have traded at a premium of up to 35% over the LME price of nickel.

To bring home the point about the importance of nickel sulphate, I turned to one of the many contacts I have in the technology metals industry, Simon Moores. He founded Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in the U.K. a few years as a source of information on the technology metals markets. He and his firm have quickly become the source for such information for Bloomberg, CNBC, and all the other financial media outlets.

When I asked him about the importance of nickel sulfate, Simon wanted me to pass this on to you:

“Nickel sulphate is the second largest input into a cathode after lithium and is set to become even more important with the advent of high nickel lower cobalt containing chemistries. While nickel is mined in the millions of tonnes, only 75,000 tonnes of nickel chemical was consumed in batteries in 2016. The industry will need to restructure to produce anywhere from four to five times this in the next seven years to meet lithium ion battery demand. We expect 2018 to be the year major nickel metal suppliers start enacting this battery pivot to their business models.”

Other experts are pretty much in agreement in agreement with Simon…

The chief economist at commodities trading firm Trafigura, Saad Rahim, told Bloomberg that demand for nickel sulfate will soar 50% to 3 million metric tons by 2030. Portfolio member Glencore is largely in agreement – it forecast a need to boost nickel output by 1.2 million tons by 2030 in order to meet demand. That is more than half of current global production.

And keep in mind that most of this increase in nickel output needs to be of the high-quality ore.

That demand for higher-grade ores is already being reflected in the marketplace. The spread between high-grade and low-grade iron ore has widened to more than $20 a ton this year, from only $5 to $8 a ton 18 months ago.

The consultancy McKinsey was quoted in the Financial Times as saying, “The global nickel industry may enter a period of change driven by a shift in end-use demand and the emergence of two distant markets.”

Since only about half the world’s nickel is suitable for batteries, we need to stock to that part of the nickel market with our investment selection. And we want to stick with the major players, not some speculative exploration company.

That leaves us with the two largest nickel miners in the world – Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (OTC: NILSY) and Brazil’s Vale SA (NYSE: VALE). You may recall that Vale got into nickel in a big way when it purchased Canada’s Inco in 2006 for C$19 billion.

Vale SA – the Broad Picture

While there are political and geopolitical concerns with both countries, I’m opting for the slightly safer choice and going with Vale. In addition to being a powerhouse in nickel, Vale is the world’s largest producer of iron ore, most of which is of the highest quality.

But like its Brazilian peers, Vale was a company in a lot of trouble, not only because of falling commodity prices, but also because of direct interference in its operations from the prior Dilma Rousseff (who was impeached) government.

The first step out of the wilderness was taken by Vale in March when it named 63-year old Fabio Schvartsman as its new CEO. He is a commodities industry veteran, having run companies for four decades, with the latest being Brazilian paper giant Klabin.

In late June, the first phase of a restructuring plan to reduce government influence was put into place. As part of that process, the plan is to list Vale on Brazil’s Novo Mercado, which has higher corporate governance requirements.

But most importantly, Schvartsman is tackling the company’s debt problem. Vale’s debt hit a peak of $25 billion – a lot for a company with a market capitalization of less than $60 billion. He is targeting a halving of Vale’s current debt of about $21.1 billion to less than $10 billion in order to become a “results-orientated” company. Net debt at the end of the third quarter of 2017 came in at $21.066 million, down 18.9% year-over-year.

Schvartsman is also ‘running the slide rule’ over all projects. For example, he is looking for a partner to invest in one of the world’s biggest nickel mines, which is located on the remote South Pacific island of New Caledonia. Discussions are underway with a number of possible Chinese partners that are in the battery industry. If he doesn’t fund a partner, Schvartsman will shutter the mine.

Vale SA – the Numbers

Now let me show you a closer at Vale’s numbers.

The majority of its business – about 75% – is centered around iron ore. Vale operates two world-class integrated systems (the Northern System and the Southern System) in Brazil for mining and distributing iron ore, which consists of mines, railroads, port and terminal facilities.

But roughly 20% (and growing) of Vale’s business consists of non-ferrous metals like nickel and copper (it is Brazil’s biggest producer). It is also the country’s sole producer of potash and the world’s third largest producer of kaolin (a clay industrial mineral).

The remaining 5% or so are scattered around assets like coal. In a presentation to shareholders in November, Vale said it will unload $1.5 billion worth of non-core assets from 2018 to 2020.

The rally in metals prices in 2017 (iron ore is soaring again in China) gave a huge boost to the efforts of Schvartsman to turn the company around. Just look at Vale’s latest results…

I fully expect these positives will continue to boost the company’s results in the quarters ahead. And once you add in the promise of an electric vehicle future for nickel, Vale should make a nice addition to any wealth creation portfolio.

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Source: Investors Alley 

10 Safe Dividend Stocks for the Second Quarter

Source: Shutterstock

With the U.S. stock market fresh off its first quarterly loss since 2015, many conservative  investors are in need of dividend stock ideas that can provide safe income and preserve their capital over the long term.

Using Dividend Safety Scores, a system created by Simply Safe Dividends to help investors avoid dividend cuts in their portfolios, we identified 10 high-quality dividend stocks from traditionally defensive sectors like telecom, healthcare and consumer staples.

These stocks have an impeccable record of paying continuous dividends over the years given their durable business models, strong cash flows and disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Many of these companies are also in Simply Safe Dividends’ list of the best high dividend stocks here and trade at yields above their five-year averages, providing an attractive combination of current income and growth.

Let’s take a look at 10 of the best safe dividend stocks for the second quarter.

Safe Dividend Stocks: AT&T (T)

Sector: Telecom Services
Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Dividend Yield: 5.6%
5-Year Average Yield: 5.2%

AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) is a global leader in telecommunications, media and technology. The company provides wireless and wireline communications services, including data, broadband and voice, digital video services, telecommunications equipment and other services.

AT&T has a huge customer base consisting of 157 million wireless subscribers, over 12 million internet subscribers and around 25 million video customers.

Few companies can compete with AT&T’s massive scale, which allows it to invest heavily in the quality and coverage of its cable, wireless, and satellite networks. In fact, AT&T is planning to deploy the next generation 5G wireless technology in 12 U.S. markets by late 2018.

Should AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner be completed, the deal has potential to create value for shareholders and customers by combining its strong distribution capabilities with Time Warner’s large content portfolio.

While this deal will increase AT&T’s debt burden, Simply Safe Dividends estimates that the combined company’s free cash flow payout ratio will sit around 70% to 80%, which is sustainable for a cash cow with recession-resistant services like AT&T. Investors can read the firm’s in-depth dividend stock analysis on AT&T here.

AT&T has recorded 34 consecutive years of quarterly dividend growth and last raised its payout by 2% in late 2017. An improving balance sheet and moderately growing demand for faster delivery of video and data services should enable the company to continue raising its dividend at a low single-digit pace.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Pfizer (PFE)

Safe Dividend Stocks: Pfizer (PFE)

Source: Shutterstock

Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Dividend Yield: 3.8%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.5%

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) is a global biopharmaceutical giant engaged in the development and manufacture of healthcare products. It is one of the largest global pharmaceuticals companies, with 2017 revenues exceeding $52 billion.

Founded in 1849, Pfizer has come a long way to become a leading healthcare company, with manufacturing sites in 63 locations and sales in 125 countries. The company has a wide portfolio of medicines, vaccines and consumer healthcare products and is known for popular drugs like Prevnar and Viagra, among others.

The company’s business can be divided into two distinct business segments — Pfizer Innovative Health (focusing on six therapeutic areas like oncology) which accounted for 60% of 2017 revenues and Pfizer Essential Health (legacy drugs that have lost patent protection) comprising the remaining 40%.

A relatively recession-proof business model, diversified portfolio of R&D intensive products, and global scale create a competitive moat around the company.

Pfizer is also benefiting from U.S. tax reform, which has driven the firm to repatriate most of its cash held overseas and aggressively return cash to shareholders.

The company last raised its dividend by 6.3% in December 2017, and mid-single-digit growth is likely to continue. In fact, management expects 11% earnings growth in 2018, and rising global demand for healthcare should continue to serve as a long-term tailwind.

Income investors can read Simply Safe Dividends’ comprehensive analysis on Pfizer’s business here.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Procter & Gamble (PG)

Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Household Products
Dividend Yield: 3.5%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.1%

Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) is a leading global consumer goods company. With more than 180 years of existence, the company is today an international household name, selling products in more than 175 countries.

Accounting for 32% of total sales in 2017, fabric and home care is Procter & Gamble’s biggest segment, followed by baby, feminine and family care (28%), beauty (18%), grooming (11%) and health (11%) segments.

By geography, North America is P&G’s largest market (45% of sales) while developing economies account for 35% of its total sales.

A diverse portfolio of iconic brands (Ariel, Bounty, Braun, Olay, Pantene etc.),  strong consumer loyalty, and a global sales network have made P&G one of strongest consumer goods companies in the world.

In recent years the company has restructured its brand portfolio (from 170 in 2013 to 65 today) to focus more on stronger product lines with faster growth and greater profitability. The company also has targeted to save $10 billion in operating costs between fiscal year 2017 and 2021.

Despite its modest growth profile, Procter & Gamble has an impeccable record of paying consecutive dividends over the last 127 years. It last raised its dividend by 3% in 2017, marking it the 61st consecutive dividend increase and reinforcing its status as a dividend king (see all the dividend kings here).

The company is targeting up to $70 billion in capital returns through fiscal 2019 and 5% to 7% in core earnings per share growth. This should enable the company to comfortably continue its dividend growth streak.

Safe Dividend Stocks: United Parcel Services (UPS)

Sector: Industrials
Industry: Air Freight and Logistics
Dividend Yield: 3.4%
5-Year Average Yield: 2.9%

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) is a holding in Warren Buffett’s dividend portfolio hereand is the world’s largest package delivery and logistics company. It is also a premier provider of global supply chain management solutions.

The company operates through three segments: U.S. Domestic Package (62% of 2017 revenue), International Package (20%) and Supply Chain & Freight (18%).

UPS has a balanced presence globally delivering 20 million packages and documents each day in more than 220 countries. The US is its largest market with 79% of sales while Europe is the largest among international markets (21%).

The company has an extensive global logistics and distribution system consisting of 2,500 worldwide operating facilities, 119,000 vehicles and over 500 aircraft. Upstarts and smaller rivals cannot afford to invest in such a transportation network, and they lack UPS’s package volumes which help the company achieve meaningful cost efficiencies.

Thanks to its advantages, UPS has been paying generous cash dividends for the last 50 years. The company’s recent payout boost in late 2017 represented a 10% increase over the prior year, and analysts expect 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow by 20% thanks largely to tax reform.

Given the continued surge in global online shopping trends and long-term growth in global trade, the company should be able to continue  increasing its dividend comfortably in the high single to low double-digit range.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Verizon Communications (VZ)

Sector: Telecom Services
Industry: Integrated Telecommunication Services
Dividend Yield: 4.9%
5-Year Average Yield: 4.5%

Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) is the biggest provider of wireless service in the U.S. with 116.3 million retail customers and enjoys a duopoly position with AT&T, Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) and T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS).

The company has the largest 4G LTE network (with 97.9 million retail postpaid connections) and is available to over 98% of the U.S. population. Although wireless operations generate over 80% of the company’s cash flow, Verizon’s superior fiber-optic technology also enables high speed broadband internet and has been ranked No.1 for internet speed ten years in a row by PC Magazine.

Customers prefer Verizon for its highly reliable wireless services, which are made possible by substantial investments in its network each year. The company also owns highly valuable and scarce telecom spectrum licenses, which form a strong entry barrier for new entrants.

Verizon is also leading the 5G wireless technology development over the last few years to reinforce its strong position, and it has plans to launch 5G wireless residential broadband services in three to five U.S. markets this year.

With tax reform freeing up several billion dollars more of cash flow this year, and management’s plans to cut $10 billion in costs by 2022, Verizon’s dividend remains on solid ground.

Verizon recorded its 11th consecutive dividend increase in 2017 with a 2.2% raise, and low-single-digit growth is likely to continue in the years ahead as the company trims its cost base and benefits from growing demand for high speed data and internet.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Coca-Cola (KO)

Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Soft Drinks
Dividend Yield: 3.5%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.2%

The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) is one of the largest beverage companies in the world, manufacturing and distributing more than 500 non-alcoholic drink brands. It owns four of the world’s top five sparkling soft drink brands — Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite.

Coca-Cola’s activities can be grouped into five operating segments — Europe, Middle East and Africa (21% of 2017 revenues); Latin America (11%); North America (24%); Asia Pacific (14%); and Bottling Investments (30%).

Coca-Cola owns the world’s largest distribution system that enables seamless sales to 27 million customer outlets in more than 200 international markets. This distribution network serves as a major advantage as the company evolves its product mix.

As a result of increased customer health awareness, the company is focusing on constructing a healthier portfolio by introducing products like Coca-Cola zero sugar.

The Coca-Cola Company is a dividend aristocrat (see all the aristocrats here) that has increased dividends in each of the last 56 years and last raised its payout by 5%. The company has a target of a 75% payout ratio and 7% to 9% earnings growth over the long term.

Given its industry leading position, strong brands, and huge international presence, Coca-Cola should be able to continue delivering mid-single-digit dividend growth in future.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Merck (MRK)

Safe Dividend Stocks: Merck (MRK)

Source: Shutterstock

Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Dividend Yield: 3.6%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.1%

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) is a global healthcare company with a rich operating history exceeding 120 years. The company provides a host of prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies and animal health products.

Geographically, the U.S. is its largest market with 43% of 2017 revenues, followed by EMEA, Asia Pacific, Japan, Latin America and others.

Merck’s core product categories include drugs for diabetes and cancer as well as vaccines and hospital acute care. A few of Merck’s best-selling products are Januvia (industry leading diabetic drug), Keytruda (cancer drug), Zetia and Remicade. The company’s 12 main drugs accounted for 53% of total sales in 2017.

The company spends heavily on R&D (18% of sales in 2017) to continuously rebuild its drug pipeline and deliver innovative health solutions. As a result, Merck is in a solid position to benefit from the growing demand for oncology treatments. The company has also been restructuring its business to cut long-term costs.

Merck has a rich history of paying uninterrupted dividends for nearly three decades and has increased dividends for seven years in a row. Its last dividend was raised by 2%, which is in line with its 10-year annual dividend growth rate.

Given the company’s disciplined capital allocation and reasonable payout ratio below 50%, Merck is poised to continue growing its payout in the future.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Altria (MO)

Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Tobacco
Dividend Yield: 4.4%
5-Year Average Yield: 4.0%

Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO) is the undisputed market leader in the U.S. tobacco industry. The company has exclusive rights to sell cigarettes under a handful of leading brands including Marlboro, Virginia Slims, Parliament and Benson & Hedges. Altria also sells cigars, chewing tobacco and wine.

Marlboro has been the leading U.S. cigarette brand for over 40 years, and Copenhagen and Skoal account for more than 50% of the smokeless products category. Cigarette brands tend to have a high degree of stickiness, with customers having a very low preference to switch to other brands and a greater tolerance to pay higher prices given the addictive nature of tobacco.

With a long history of manufacturing cigarettes dating back 180 years, Altria has built a dominant market position over the years, resulting in a steady and growing stream of cash flow that has funded solid dividend growth.

In fact, Altria’s latest dividend raise earlier this year was 6%, representing its 52nd dividend increase in the past 49 years. Altria has a target dividend payout ratio of 80% with annual earnings growth of 7% to 9% expected over the long term. This should  allow the company to keep growing dividends at a mid to high single-digit clip going forward.

Safe Dividend Stocks: AbbVie (ABBV)

AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) is a research-driven global healthcare company, focusing on developing and delivering drugs in therapeutic areas like immunology, oncology, neuroscience, virology and general medicine. The company generates over 60% of its revenue (and an even greater share of profits) from its arthritis drug Humira.Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Biotechnology
Dividend Yield: 4.2%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.5%

Humira’s revenue stream in the U.S. is expected to be largely protected from competition through 2022 thanks to a number of patents owned by AbbVie. Meanwhile, AbbVie’s R&D expertise has helped the company develop a strong late-stage pipeline of promising medicines across several therapeutic areas which could potentially be converted into successful products in the near future.

The company recently experienced a setback as Rova-T, a lung cancer drug that was a key part of AbbVie’s plans to diversify its future profits, experienced achieved disappointing trial results, suggesting its overall impact on the company’s future results would be somewhat muted.

However, the company remains a cash cow with a handful of growth drivers and a reasonable payout ratio near 50%. Management continues cranking up the dividend, most recently announcing a 35% boost earlier this year.

New product launches and increasing demand for medicines both from developed and developing economies should help AbbVie grow its dividends at a solid rate going forward, but investors considering the stock do need to have a stomach for volatility given AbbVie’s drug concentration.

Safe Dividend Stocks: Cisco (CSCO)

Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment
Dividend Yield: 3.2%
5-Year Average Yield: 3.2%

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) is a leading global technology company inventing new technologies and products that have been powering the internet for more than three decades.

Product sales account for approximately 75% of total sales while services comprise the remainder of the business. Switching and routing are the most prominent product categories followed by collaboration, data center, wireless, security and service provider video.

The company’s service revenue is composed of software, subscriptions, and technical support offered across its different segments. Cisco’s customers are highly diversified and include businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments and service providers.

Cisco has a large worldwide sales and marketing network with field offices in 95 countries, strong R&D capabilities, and a massive patent portfolio. Market leadership, breadth of portfolio, global scale and customer loyalty are its key competitive advantages. Investors can read in-depth analysis of Cisco’s business here.

Cisco is also shifting its business towards a software and subscriptions model which will lead to a higher visibility of its cash flows. Currently, recurring revenue accounts for 33% of total sales, and more than half of software revenue is subscription based revenue.

Cisco recently increased its dividend by 14% and has targeted to return at least half of its free cash flow to shareholders annually. The company’s solid cash flow and sub-50% payout ratio should allow for continued dividend growth in the years ahead.

Get up to 14 dividend paychecks per month from safe, reliable stocks with The Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar, an easy-to-use system that shows you which dividend stocks to pick, when to buy them, when you get paid your dividends, and how much.  All you have to do is buy the stocks you like and tell them where to send your dividend payments. For more information Click Here.


Source: Investors Alley 

The Last Time I Saw This Chart, It Was 2007

I recall the presentation vividly.

It was November 2007 and I was standing in front of a packed room at a really swank resort along the Mexican Riviera. Money Map Press was in its infancy, and I was making my first public appearance as its chief investment strategist.

The markets were rocketing higher, the money was easy, and investors were greedy.

Until I got on stage.

I dropped a financial bomb of epic proportions by telling my audience two things: 1) the rally they were counting on was about to come screeching to a halt; and, 2) they’d best shift their attention to harvesting profits.

You could have heard a pin drop.

I made my case as simply as I knew how… a “compressed range since 2005 shows [the] market ready to snap just like [it did] in early 2000.”

Then, I threw the following chart up on the projector, knowing full well that a picture is worth a thousand words… or at least a few million dollars in the hands of savvy folks.

Pay particular attention to the yellow circle.

My analysis suggested that the S&P 500 would fall to 1,329.26 by March 1, 2008, before making a brief stand and collapsing further.

It was tough stuff made doubly so because conventional Wall Street analysts would have sugarcoated the news… that is, if they had even seen it coming in the first place. Most, as you know, did not… which is why the financial carnage that followed was so very painful for many.

In my capacity as chief investment strategist, though, I had no choice but to tell investors three things, even if they were unexpected and uncomfortable: 1) exactly what my analysis showed, 2) why it was happening, and most importantly, 3) how to profit from a market collapse that I believed was going to catch millions of unsuspecting investors by surprise.

You see, my success is derived directly from your success, not Wall Street’s special interests or corporate sponsors. That’s why I take the trust you place in me and in my team very, very seriously and why, today, we are the No. 1 independent financial research firm in the world.

But, getting back to the point, you know how the story ends just as well as I do.

The S&P 500 actually closed at 1330.45 on Feb. 29, 2008… before falling off a cliff as the Global Financial Crisis hit. Ultimately, the S&P 500 would tumble 56.4% from the peak it set on Oct. 9, 2007, and shave a staggering $15 trillion from global markets.

Investors who went to the sidelines – as I advocated – made “bank” by harvesting profits. More aggressive readers did even better by purchasing inverse funds like the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy – Investor Class (RYURX) and put options.

Critically, they also began redeploying those gains into rock-solid companies almost immediately. Choices I recommended like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) would go on to triple-digit returns before subscribers were done with ’em.

Those who didn’t and who struggled to “buy the dips” may as well have been rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic because their portfolios still got decimated.

You Must Act Now: America is headed for an economic disaster bigger than anything since the Great Depression. If you lost out when the markets crashed in 2008, then you are going to want to see this special presentation…

Could I have been wrong?

Absolutely.

I am NOT telling you this today to make myself look smart, nor to create the opinion that I am the greatest financial analyst since sliced bread. I am not – I put my shoes on one foot at a time, every day, just like you do.

The advantage I have is one drawn from 35 years of experience in global markets as a consultant, analyst, and trader and tens of thousands of hours studying the worldwide financial markets.

I could care less about being “right” (which is how most amateurs approach the markets). What I do care deeply about, though, is helping you find the world’s best investment opportunities and showing you how to profit handsomely in all kinds of market conditions (which is how legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers do things).

I’m telling you all this for a reason.

I recently updated that same chart I showed my audience more than a decade ago and, once again, I see a potentially very nasty turn of events ahead.

The compression that was present back in 2007 has reared its ugly head again. Technically speaking, prices have fallen off since January and are now trading just above a critical line of “last resort,” which I’ve highlighted in yellow.

At the same time, emotions are running high, which confirms a change in sentiment I noted during an appearance on “Varney & Co.” this past Monday morning, where I made the same point in response to anchor Stuart Varney’s question about the possibility of a correction.

The next stop is 2,476.79 in May if the markets cannot hold at the lows set Feb. 9, 2018. Or, sooner.

From there, chances are good it’ll be another white-knuckle ride… a “Great Reckoning,” if you will.

The vast majority of folks don’t see this coming, and those few who do are not preparing properly… nor profitably.

If you’re like me, you’ve felt a sense of market turmoil ahead. This chart should be all the proof you need to take action. The last time it looked like this it was just months before the epic 2008 crash that pushed our financial system to the brink.

Ask yourself, right now, in light of what I’ve just laid out: Are you where you want to be financially?

If the answer is yes, that’s great.

If the answer is no, then you are NOT alone, and you need to click here.

So, Now What?

As always, a little perspective is in order.

Millions of investors fear information like that which I’ve just shared with you because they have no idea what to make of it nor how to handle the fact that what I’m telling you is just around the proverbial bend.

Thankfully, you’re not in that crowd.

As a member of the Total Wealth family, you’ve got a number of significant advantages – not the least of which is a very different perspective from traditional investors who risk having their 401(k)s turned into 201(k)s for the third time in less than 20 years.

As we have discussed many times, the right perspective is also the most profitable perspective. Here’s what that means…

Right now, it means you’re still after profits, but you want to take a moment to don the psychological armor needed to protect your money against the emotional inputs that will destroy other investors as conditions deteriorate in the face of a trade war, increasingly tense international relations, and disjointed politics on both sides of the aisle.

This makes sense when you think about.

When the markets are running higher, our emphasis is on loss prevention because we want to make money with every stock we own, every day we own it. When they’re running lower or losing gas, as is the case now, your primary focus becomes harvesting profits – a subtle distinction lost on most investors.

To be clear, I am not suggesting you time the markets – doing so never works out the way people think, despite their best intentions.

A rules-based approach, like the one I advocate, is always more effective, which is why it’s at the heart of every investing service I offer and a crucial part of the Total Wealth investing process.

I want you to start taking profits as fast as the markets want to hand them to you by doing three things. Chances are good that you will have a bunch – of profits, that is – if you’ve been following along for any length of time:

  • Use Total Wealth tactics like trailing stops and profit targets to calmly and systematically harvest profits like clockwork without the emotional interference that cripples most investors who sell in a panic when the you know what hits the fan. This guarantees that you are constantly raising cash you can put to work later, even as other unsuspecting investors burn theirs. Again, this is how legends like Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers approach markets and how Sir John Templeton, one of the greatest market masters in history, did.
  • Buy a short-term 1:1 inverse fund like the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy – Investor Class (RYURX) or an ETF like the ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE Arca: SH). Both will rise as the S&P 500 falls, which means you can profit from the sting that will devastate other investors. Buying put options is also a great way to go if you’re options-savvy, but what I’m talking about today is protecting your core investments, not speculating.
  • Put new money to work in ONLY those holdings like the Triple Compounders we’ve talked about recently, or the world’s best Global Growth and Income plays like NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE), Baidu Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU), and Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), which still have solid business cases and even more solid profits ahead.

In closing, I know a column like this one can be scary.

Believe me, I certainly think twice every time I have to write one, which thankfully isn’t very often.

But, don’t let that stop you from investing.

Growth may slow but it will not stop.

Get up to 14 dividend paychecks per month from safe, reliable stocks with The Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar, an easy-to-use system that shows you which dividend stocks to pick, when to buy them, when you get paid your dividends, and how much.  All you have to do is buy the stocks you like and tell them where to send your dividend payments. For more information Click Here.


Source: Money Morning

7 Best Platform Stocks to Buy Now

Source: Shutterstock

What are platform stocks? Which are the best platform stocks to buy and how can they make you rich?

Uber is a platform business. So is Airbnb. At its core, a platform businesses connect consumers of products and services with producers of those products and services through a marketplace created and managed by the platform company.

The general idea is to build something so useful that you create a platform that turns into a quasi-monopoly.

CEO Alex Moazed of Platform consultant Applico defines a platform company as follows:

Successful platforms facilitate exchanges by reducing transaction costs and/or by enabling externalized innovation. With the advent of connected technology, these ecosystems enable platforms to scale in ways that traditional businesses cannot.”

Moazed points out that S&P 500 pure-play platform businesses are valued at an average of 8.9 times revenue, significantly higher than traditional companies at 2-4 times sales.

It’s this reality that makes the Applico Platform Index (API) — a group of 27 platform companies that each have a market cap higher than $2 billion — so successful.

Over the past ten years, the API generated an annualized total return of 15.6%, 510 basis points higher than the tech-heavy NASDAQ, and a testament to the success of platform businesses.

Here are the 7 best platform stocks to buy right now.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Ritchie Bros. (RBA)

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Before I get into the more obvious platform stocks, I thought I’d go with a couple of index constituents that most investors wouldn’t name when rattling off platform companies.

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc (NYSE:RBA) is a Canadian company that got its start in the auction business in 1958 and has grown to annual revenues of $611 million by bringing buyers and sellers together to carry out transactions. In 2017, RBA transacted $4.5 billion in business by connecting these buyers and sellers, online and in person.

In the company’s fourth quarter, it saw revenues increase by 22% to $178.8 million as a result of its May 2017 acquisition for $777 million of IronPlanet, a California company that specializes in the sale of used heavy construction equipment.

On March 27, it launched Marketplace-E, a user-friendly digital platform that will make it easier for businesses to dispose of their assets.

Up 7.4% year to date through April 4, Ritchie Bros. platform solutions should continue to grow the business for years to come.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: American Express (AXP)

American Express stock

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American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), along with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), were the APIs first two platform companies back in 1984, the date of the index’s inception.

American Express qualifies as a platform company because it operates a closed-loop networkwhere it acts as both card issuer and bank cutting out the middleman.

Additionally, AXP launched Serve in 2011, a platform that enabled its customers to make person-to-person payments using their phone. In 2017, American Express announced that it was selling the U.S. distribution rights and technology of its prepaid reloadable and gift card products — including Serve —  to InComm Holdings.

The platform technology was useful to AXP’s prepaid business. But it turns out the low-end customer didn’t generate enough revenue for it to keep distributing the Serve prepaid cards.

2017 was a transformative year for American Express for two reasons.

First, Ken Chenault retired as CEO of the company in October after 16 years in the job, passing the reins to Stephen Squeri. Secondly, it grew its business at a nice pace over the past year. Highlights include growing the total number of cards in force by 2.9 million and increasing the number of cardmember loans by 12% while adding 1.5 million new merchant locations.

All of that added up to total revenues of $33.5 billion and $7.4 billion in pretax income. Both numbers decent, if not spectacular results. As it continues to work on generating more revenue from each cardholder, I’d expect both the top- and bottom-line to improve in 2018 and beyond.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Apple (AAPL)

How Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Could Benefit by Being More Like IBM

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Apple is the other original platform stock in the index. It operates a number of different platforms that connect the Apple user to the iOS ecosystem. If you own an iPhone, you know what I’m talking about. Whether it be the App Store, iTunes, Apple Music, iCloud or any of its other services, Apple products are tied into all of these.

I’ve recently considered buying a laptop. Most likely, I’ll buy an Apple product because of the iOS platform. It might be more expensive, but already owning an iPhone and iPad mini, I’m committed to it.

To get me off the Apple platforms the company either has to mess up the ecosystem and products colossally, or the competition delivers something so unbelievably useful I want to switch.

Personally, I don’t think either of those is going to happen. I’m not saying the competition is bad; just that they’re not lights out great. Tim Cook’s job is to deliver new products that are solid, if not spectacular, to feed the platforms, which continue to grow by double digits in terms of revenue.

People like myself will always be okay with just good, and that’s why Apple has the highest market cap in the world. Of all the platform stocks to buy, Apple is the one I’d recommend to buy-and-hold investors.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Microsoft (MSFT)

You can’t include Apple in a discussion about platform stocks without also talking about Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT). When it comes to platforms, they’re tied at the hip.

With Microsoft’s cloud and AI initiatives taking center stage at the company, the original Windows platform is looking like a tiny fraction of its overall business. It’s still an essential component through Office 365, but less so than a decade or even five years ago.

Microsoft just announced that it’s spending $5 billion over the next four years on the Internet of Things (IoT) devices. The key to any good platform is the level of connectedness it provides its customers and Microsoft knows it.

In an April 4 blog post, Microsoft Corporate Vice President Julia White  wrote .

“Microsoft’s IoT offerings today include what businesses need to get started, ranging from operating systems for devices, cloud services to control and secure them, advanced analytics to gain insights, and business applications to enable intelligent action. We’ve seen great traction with customers and partners who continue to come up with new ideas and execute them on our platform.”

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Redfin (RDFN)

Redfin (RDFN)

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In November 2013, I recommended Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:ZG), suggesting “if you want to make a lot of money in 3 to 5 years, buying Zillow stock is a smart move.”

Over the past five years, its stock price has doubled, a good, if not spectacular return. Now considered relatively pricey, I thought I’d turn my attention to another real-estate stock on the index — Redfin Corp (NASDAQ:RDFN).

The company’s business model is simple.

It offers real estate agents a technology-enabled, vertically integrated real estate brokerage. It provides buyers and sellers a better experience for less. According to Redfin’s latest March presentation, if you sell a $500,000 home through them and then buy a $500,000 house through them, you’ll save $12,000 assuming the traditional listing-agent and buying agent fees are both 3%.

Houses sell faster through Redfin and for a better price. It’s technology disruption to the max.

“We expect the competitively compelling value prop and simplicity of the ‘1 percent’ product to resonate with consumers this year and potentially accelerate RDFN share gains,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom White recently told clients in a note.

A good business always makes or saves people money. Redfin does both making it a winner in my books.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon Stock Is a Raging Bull You Don’t Want to Mess With!

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Despite President Trump’s assertion that Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is scamming the Post Office out of billions and cheating the Treasury Department out of significant taxes, it’s hard not to appreciate the platform Jeff Bezos has built since its founding in 1994.

People think Jeff Bezos wants to own online retail. And Amazon certainly has a big chunk of the market — the company generated 44% of the U.S. e-commerce sales in 2017. But that’s just a small part of a bigger picture.

Amazon doesn’t want to own online retail; it wants to own your home — figuratively, not literally.

wrote March 2:

“Costco’s business model allows it to survive on razor-thin margins because of its annual membership. Through Prime, Amazon could do the same. Instead of offering just speakers, video streaming, doorbell cameras and all the other things it sells online, why not provide everything a homeowner (and renter) could need to keep the household functioning.

“Amazon could provide insurance, mortgages, wealth management, travel, legal advice, healthcare insurance (it’s on that), actual healthcare, the list goes on.”

Amazon’s biggest platform is Prime. That single membership will take the company much farther than merely focusing on e-commerce. Soon, Prime members are said to be getting a 10% discount when they shop at Whole Foods.

It’s not about online sales. It’s about total sales to the homeowner or renter. That’s exponentially larger.

7 Platform Stocks to Buy: Alibaba (BABA)

What to Expect From BABA Stock Earnings

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 Amazon is all about the home, but Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) goes at this from a slightly different angle. It wants to provide all the platforms and big data necessary for small businesses to compete and thrive — both in its home country of China and around the world.

I neglected to mention AWS in the section about Amazon, the highly profitable piece of its business that helps businesses compete more effectively. I did so, in part, because I believe AWS got its start to provide the infrastructure necessary for AMZN to be a big player in e-commerce retail and moved beyond its walls when it realized it had more capacity at its data centers than it needed in-house.

Suffice to say, Amazon hasn’t forgotten about its business clients, but I digress.

Last May, I called Ma the next Jeff Bezos. Like Bezos, he wants to reinvent retail by owning the consumer, but he knows he can’t do that without successful small businesses.  So, he’s building the same infrastructure that Amazon has such as the cloud, AI, data analytics, whatever it takes to understand what the consumer wants and needs and get it to them.

Eventually, the two companies could be only dominant global players in the business-to-consumer space. Amazon’s well ahead of Alibaba, but Jack Ma’s closing the gap. The next ten years should be exciting.

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Source: Investors Alley 

FAANG Stocks: Two to Dump Now and Two to Buy

In what was a very poor April Fool’s joke, the stock market took a tumble on Monday, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 2016. U.S. stocks had their worst start to an April in many decades as measured by the S&P index. The 2.2% plunge was exceeded by only the 2.5% dive in 1929 when the index only consisted of 90 stocks. This drop followed the worst three month period for global stocks in more than two years.

This selloff was once again led by technology stocks – the Nasdaq 100 index lost 2.9% – as more reasons to sell tech outweighed expected stellar earnings reports (average gains of 22%) later this month. The so-called FAANG stocks extended their recent fall. On Monday, they lost $78.7 billion in market value, bringing the total decline in value to $397 billion just from March 12.

The reasons behind the tech selloff were many and included: the continuing worries over regulation of social media, thanks to Facebook; a stupid April Fool tweet from Tesla’s Elon Musk joking about bankruptcy; tweets from President Trump continuing his rants about Amazon; further tweets from the President threatening the future of NAFTA, reigniting the market’s worries about a global trade war; and finally a report that Apple may use chips of its own design in Macs rather than Intel’s chips.

Hopefully, the political worries coming from the White House will eventually fade: if so, then that means the main long-term worry surrounds the social media stocks and in particular, Facebook.

The Anti-Social Network

There are now clever articles being written calling Facebook the anti-social network. And with good reason.

A June 2016 internal memo written by Facebook vice-president and long-time employee Andrew Bosworth entitled “The Ugly” was an eye-opener. It said that the company must pursue its aim of connecting people using “questionable” means even if it costs lives. In other words, anything and everything Facebook does in pursuit of growth was “justified”. What hubris!

Bosworth said this justified “questionable contact importing practices” where users give up their friends’ data, and implied that the privacy policy language was meant to deceive with “the subtle language that helps people stay searchable by friends”. He also suggested Facebook was prepared to use even more “questionable” practices in order to break in to the Chinese market.

This is what happens when only dollars matter. As the author of The Facebook Effect, David Kirkpatrick, told the Financial Times, “They simply allowed an advertising based system to get out of control. “You could use the word greed if you wanted to be uncharitable. They clearly prioritized growing profits over cautionary controls [over users’ privacy].”

The Consequences

As a result of these Facebook failures, lawmakers and regulators in both Europe and the U.S., where Facebook signed a privacy deal with the Federal Trade Commission in 2011, are now scrutinizing the problems posed by data-hungry businesses. The question is how to regulate these fast-changing technologies without ruining their business model.

The underlying problem is that Facebook’s business model, like Google’s, is based on constant commercial surveillance. These companies have massive amounts of personal data on users… in effect, they have a psychological profile on each user. Think about how Google is a ‘data miner’ too. When you search using Google or use Google’s Chrome browser, all that data goes to Google so it can target ads to you. In effect, like Facebook it has a profile on you based on your searches and location.

Related: Facebook, We Have a Problem

Beginning in May, Europe’s GPDR (General Data Protection Regulation) will limit how companies store, process and share personal data. The consent to collect and use personal data will have to be specific and unambiguous, not buried inside many pages of legalese and a user must consent every time. This law alone caused Google to warn its shareholders the reforms could “cause us to change our business practices”. The EU I believe will also pass an e-privacy directive, which if passed, would likely have an impact on both firms’ business, because it would significantly restrict the tracking of users’ behavior online.

Go With Microsoft and Apple Instead

As for the investment implications of all this, I would steer clear of both Alphabet and Facebook as well as other social media stocks even though I suspect Congress will punt on imposing regulation on them. Instead of investing into these companies, I would opt for other blue chip technology companies – Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).

Of course, Apple also collects data on its customers, perhaps even more than Facebook. But it has a much better track record of respecting its customers’ privacy than Facebook. Apple has imposed some voluntary restrictions on itself. For example, it makes location data anonymous (unless you’re using the “Find My iPhone” feature) and generally employs “differential privacy” — a cryptography-based practice of obtaining usage and preference data without linking it to specific users.

And there are more differences between the two pairs of companies. Neither Google nor Facebook will make the same commitment as Microsoft that no ads will be targeted based on a user’s email and chat contents. Nor will they make it as easy as Apple and Microsoft make to shut off ad personalization. That’s because their business model won’t work without vast data collection and then ad targeting.

To put it bluntly, the business models of Microsoft and Apple are quite different from Google and Facebook and not reliant on ads. Apple is a hardware company that also sells content and software on commission or subscription basis. And Microsoft, with its cloud, software licensing and subscription businesses, is even less likely to be interested in your data since it no longer has a mobile platform to speak of.

These are the companies to buy on any market weakness, while Facebook and Alphabet should be sold on any rallies.

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Source: Investors Alley 

Warren Buffett Loves the Industry of this Beaten Down High-Yield Stock. You Should Too.

Last year at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, billionaire Warren Buffett stated: “We have got a big appetite for wind or solar.” This high-yield stock is a pure play wind and solar energy producer that was just upgraded by Goldman Sachs. View the recent share price decline as an opportunity to invest in the renewable energy sector at a great buy-in price.

Pattern Energy Group (Nasdaq: PEGI) is an owner/operator of 20 wind power facilities, including one project it has agreed to acquire, with a total owned interest of 2,736 MW in the United States, Canada and Chile. Each power facility is contracted to sell all its energy output, or a majority, on a long-term, fixed-price power sale agreement. Ninety-two percent of the electricity to be generated by the facilities will be sold under these power sale agreements, which have a weighted average remaining contract life of approximately 14 years.

The company has been focused on growing its portfolio since the 2013 IPO. At that time the company owned 1,041 MW of energy production capacity. The added and future acquisitions for Pattern Energy Group are sourced and developed by a related private investment company called Pattern Development. Pattern Development is more like an investment fund that searches out renewable energy production projects to fund. Management has a stated goal of reaching 5,000 MW of owned capacity by 2020. At this time the company already has over 1,000 MW of new projects where PEGI has the right of first offer to purchase the projects when they are ready to come on line. In its long-term development pipeline, management claims visibility on up to 10,000 MW.

Related: Sell This Popular High-Yield Clean Energy Stock ASAP

Investors have participated in the growth, with the PEGI dividend increasing every quarter until the most recent announcement. From 2014 through the end of 2017 the dividend grew by 35%. On March 1, 2018 the company chose for the first time to not increase the dividend. It was kept level with the previous rate. While the market did not like the lack of dividend increase, it was a prudent move by the Board of Directors to not announce an increase. Cash flow from recent acquisitions had not kicked in to boost free cash flow to pay a higher dividend. In February the company announced the purchase of a 206 MW portfolio of wind and solar projects in Japan. The portfolio has three operating facilities and two under construction. It is an almost certainty that PEGI will soon resume dividend growth.

The PEGI share price peaked above $24 in September 2017. The shares now trade at $17 and change with a 9.75% current yield. This is a dividend growth stock, in the growing renewable energy sector. The current sell-off of the stock is not justified by fundamentals. When the dividend again starts to grow this stock could be bid up again into the mid-$20’s.

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Source: Investors Alley

Is this the Best High Yield Stock?

What is likely the best performing high-yield stock just went ex-dividend. I recommend adding to big dividend stock positions after the ex-dividend dates, to usually pick up shares at a cheaper price. While I highly encourage income-focused investors to make sure they diversify into at least 20 dividend stocks, there is one that is a must-own, 11% yielding REIT that is also growing its dividend payments.

New Residential Investment Corp. (NYSE: NRZ) is a finance REIT that invests in products that are on the financial fringe of the residential mortgage industry. The largest investment is in mortgage servicing rights –MSRs. These are the contractual fees the mortgage servicing company receives out of the interest paid on a home mortgage. MSRs are typically 25 basis points (0.25%) per year. The cost to service a mortgage is typically less than 10 bp. The rest is profit to the company that owns the MSRs. New Residential owns full or excess MSRs on over half a trillion dollars of unpaid mortgage balances. 25 basis points of that much loan balance is a lot of cash flow!

Recently NRZ has been buying up call rights on non-agency mortgage backed securities. Currently the company owns rights on $145 billion of unpaid balance MBS. This is 30% of the entire non-agency MBS market. New Residential executes what it calls “clean up” calls on the MBS, repackaging the loans into new securities. It is a profitable business.

The company owns a portfolio of opportunistic residential mortgage and consumer loan portfolios. New Residential has been very successful at finding opportunities for great returns from loan portfolios that don’t fit into the needs of traditional buyers of these products. For example, the company has earned an 89% annual internal rate of return on a portfolio of consumer loans purchased in 2013. Target returns are 15% to 20%, and the results have often exceeded the targets.

In 2017, NRZ became an approved mortgage servicing company in all 50 states. On November 29, 2017, New Residential announced definitive agreements to acquire Shellpoint, a non-bank mortgage originator and servicer. These moves allow the company to keep MSR servicing internal or contract it out, depending on what makes the most sense financially and profitably.

As an investment, NRZ has been a great dividend paying stock. Over the last three-and-a-half years, the quarterly payout has grown from $0.35 per share to the current $0.50 per share. Last year the dividend was increased twice, and the stock produced a 27% total return. For the 2017 fourth quarter, the company reported core earnings of $0.61 per share. This was the third consecutive with earnings above $0.60 and it has been three quarters since the last dividend boost. Each quarter of outstanding earnings makes the next increase more likely.

The danger for New Residential, and the likely reason why it yields over 11%, is that all the different investments in the portfolio are depleting assets. Mortgages get paid down or off. Clean up call transactions are one-time events. This means that the management and investment team must find a continuous stream of investment opportunities that will generate the company’s target 15% to 18% returns on equity. This requires a high level of expertise. So far in its five years as a public company, NRZ has surpassed all expectations and continues to do so. Investors do need to be aware that the company needs to be monitored to make sure it keeps the pipeline of investments full.

Get up to 14 dividend paychecks per month from safe, reliable stocks with The Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar, an easy-to-use system that shows you which dividend stocks to pick, when to buy them, when you get paid your dividends, and how much.  All you have to do is buy the stocks you like and tell them where to send your dividend payments. For more information Click Here.


Source: Investors Alley 

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