This Indicator Could Signal a Top

Stress. To us, it is measured by our pulse. Our economy, however, isn’t as easily tracked.

That’s why the St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.

The stress index, which is comprised of 12 weekly data indicators, is used to show when the economy is in certain stress situations — either above- or below-average stress.

Take a look:

The St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.

(Source: Federal Reserve)

The average is the zero line, so if the index is above zero, it’s above-average financial stress. Below zero, and below-average financial stress.

Right now, the index is at a reading of about -1.5, well below the zero line. In fact, it’s only been this low twice before, once in 2013 and once in 2014.

When the financial stress of the economy is higher, there’s a threat of a pullback in the stock market.

Take a look at the inverse relationship between the index and the S&P 500.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve has done its best to create a Financial Stress Index that tells the stress level of the economy.

Clearly, as the stress index (orange line) spikes higher, there’s almost always a pullback in the S&P 500 (black line).

Since we are at very low levels for the index, we know at some point financial stress will get worse.

So, what are some possible reasons for it to be worse?

Well, based on the indicators it uses, interest rates and yield spreads are the biggest factors. And President Donald Trump is eyeing John Taylor as the new Fed chair. Taylor is considered to be the most hawkish candidate on policy, meaning he is looking to raise rates at a more rapid pace than we have seen.

Trump’s decision will create moves in the interest-rate market over the next three to six months, so it could easily be the catalyst that creates a bottom in the stress index — and therefore a possible top in the stock market.


Chad Shoop, CMT
Editor, Automatic Profits Alert

It’s not silver or platinum. It’s not aluminum, nickel or lithium, either. But this “magic” METAL is found in everything from cars to airplanes, smartphones and computers, even batteries and cosmetics. It even has the power to fight diabetes, depression, weight loss and cancer. It’s worth billions, even trillions. But here’s the problem—this metal is disappearing. The world’s reserves are quickly being sucked dry. But a group of geologists have just struck the motherlode, and the one company behind it could earn investors an absolute fortune as they solve the greatest commodity crisis in human history. [FOR MORE INFORMATION CLICK HERE]

Source: Banyan Hill

Why Bitcoin Should Be in Your Retirement Portfolio

Dear Early Investor,

People think you should buy bitcoin because the price might go up.

But the real reason you should own bitcoin – especially in your retirement portfolio – is that it’s a bet on a monetary revolution.

Crypto assets are all about cutting out the banks, middlemen, financiers and academics who control our current monetary system.

The monetary policy of today’s world is a mess rife with conflicts of interest and bad incentives. Every country does it similarly. And government is always tempted to print money. It punishes savers and rewards borrowers.

A well-constructed cryptocurrency, on the other hand, has a hard cap on the number of “coins” in existence.

There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. You can’t change that number. There are a little more than 15 million available today.

So if we’re looking at bitcoin as a competitor to the dollar, there’s no contest. The U.S. government, for example, borrows more than $1 million each minute… printing money like crazy all the while.

That’s why bitcoin has risen from around $0.005 in 2010 to more than $5,000 today.

Bitcoin is a call option on a future where it is mainstream money. You don’t sell for double or triple what you put in; you hold on and hope it keeps going up. Less than 1% of people own bitcoin today, and if it becomes mainstream money, today’s bitcoin owners may be tomorrow’s new 1% of earners.

But it’s not just bitcoin anymore. There are hundreds of interesting cryptocurrencies out there – all competing against each other, sharing code and breaking new ground.

Here’s what’s really revolutionary about it…

All these “coins” or “tokens” (digital assets) have their own funding mechanism – the initial coin offering, or ICO – in which well-run projects raise tens of millions of dollars each week… hundreds of millions in many weeks, actually.

So they don’t need the stock market or venture capitalists. Crypto is its own funding source.

These crypto projects are trying to do big things like overthrow large incumbent financial institutions, software companies and (in some ways) governments – or at least loosen their monopoly on money.

After all, there’s no good reason a government should have a monopoly on legal tender. Libertarians like Ron Paul have long been calling for “currency competition.” We shouldn’t be forced to use dollars that erode in value.

The stakes are high.

Crypto has the potential to be a better form of money, compared to the current (barbaric) methods employed by most governments.

So that’s why you would want to own at least a little bitcoin in your retirement account. Capital gains taxes can be major there. Because if the crazy revolution happens, you’ll do very, very well, as long as you buy before half of the country gets in.

If it becomes popular as a way to store value for even 10% of the population, that’s more than enough to take it to at least $100,000 per coin by my rough estimates. It’s hard to say exactly, but demand is high and rising fast.

Each bitcoin is divisible into 100 million pieces. Each piece is one “satoshi.”

If bitcoin continues to rise in value, we may start thinking about prices in satoshis, not bitcoins. Bitcoins will be for very large purchases, and satoshis will be for everything else.

This is already happening in the crypto community. When we buy other cryptocurrencies, we usually buy them with bitcoin. It’s easier to think about thousands of satoshis than it is to think about tiny fractions of a bitcoin.

You don’t need to buy a whole bitcoin. Start small, and it could still turn into a great deal of money one day.

If you’re looking to do it in a retirement account, the most well-known player in the space is fittingly called Bitcoin IRA. The company takes a 15% upfront fee, but the tax savings down the road could be tremendous if bitcoin goes mainstream.

If you’re intrigued by bitcoin and the idea of investing in smaller (new) cryptocurrencies, watch my new presentation and join First Stage Investor. It includes my top four coins, all of which are brimming with potential.

Good investing,

Adam Sharp
Co-Founder, Early Investing

Can a $10 Bill Really Fund Your Retirement? The digital currency markets are delivering profits unlike anything we’ve ever seen. ​23 recently doubled in a single week. And some like DubaiCoin have jumped as much as 8,200X in value in 18 months. It’ unprecedented... but you won’t receive any of the rewards unless you put a little money in the game. Find out how $10 could make you rich HERE. ​

Source: Early Investing