Daily Archives: December 21, 2017

Technology

Apple Is Doomed

Apple is doomed. And 2018 is the year where I believe you’ll start to see that this once-great American company has peaked and the Apple stock price is ready to decline.

Truthfully, I’ve been wrong on Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stock for a year now.

Driven by Warren Buffett’s huge buying spree — over $20 billion in shares — the Apple stock price has gone up, up and up.

This has happened despite its business being stagnant or in slight decline, depending on which quarter you look at.

 To me, most people buying Apple stock are buying into a memory.

That memory is of Steve Jobs introducing truly revolutionary products.

Like the iPod in October 2001, which by allowing you to carry tens of thousands of songs in your pocket transformed the way you listen to music.

Like the iPhone in June 2007, which shrunk a computer so that you could have access to everything you used to use your desktop computer for.

Like the iPad in April 2010, which perfected the tablet computer as an alternative to laptops.

But then Jobs died in October 2011. Since then, Apple has introduced no new revolutionary products.

Instead, Apple now tinkers with models, sizes and colors. Apple sells five different models of its iPhone. You can get them in six colors and in multiple sizes.

Apple’s latest phone, the iPhone X, has facial recognition and an OLED display.

Some people think this is a big deal. Steve Wozniak, one of the co-founders of Apple, thinks it’s no big deal at all.

“I’d rather wait and watch that one. I’m happy with my iPhone 8, which is the same as the iPhone 7, which is the same as the iPhone 6, to me,” says Wozniak.

Now there’s an even bigger thing happening. One that guarantees that Apple’s future is one that’s going to disappoint the people who have been buying its stock.

An Incredible Red Flag for the Apple Stock Price

That thing is the Chromebook. A Chromebook is a cloud-based computer that uses Google’s software.

Chromebook sales are on fire in a market that Apple used to dominate: schools.

Chromebooks now have an astonishing 58% market share in K-12 schools.

Even my kids use Chromebooks. Their school uses Google’s cloud-based word processing, spreadsheet and presentation apps.

People looking at the Apple stock price through the eyes of iPhone sales are going to miss this incredible red flag.

You see, Apple’s brand, reputation and customer loyalty begin with kids using its products.

I believe that Apple’s seeding schools with computers set the platform for Apple’s success. By the 2000s, those kids had jobs and money, and had formed a connection to Apple because their first exposure was through the company’s computers.

Steve Jobs confirmed this in a 1995 interview:

One of the things that built Apple IIs was schools buying Apple IIs. … We realized that a whole generation of kids was going to go through the school before they even got their first computer, so we thought the kids can’t wait.

Now Google is forming that relationship with kids. Already my kids and their classmates are learning to use Google by using voice commands instead of typing.

Amazon is forming that relationship with kids as well through the use of its Echo devices and Alexa platform.

The Innovation Race

Using voice instead of a keyboard is a revolutionary shift in how we use computers. This is a revolution you can see unfolding slowly right now through the sales of speakers that connect to cloud platforms like Google Assistant and Amazon’s Alexa.

Apple had the lead in this market when it introduced Siri in October 2011. However, since then, it stopped innovating and improving Siri. It let Amazon and now Google overtake it.

And I believe that because Apple’s focusing on tinkering rather than innovation, Amazon and Google’s lead are only going to increase while the price of Apple stock declines.

Apple wiped out the old cellphone leaders — Nokia, BlackBerry and others — because those companies sat on their lead and tinkered instead of innovating. I believe the same thing is going to happen to Apple.

Now, the Apple stock price continues to go up because investors like Warren Buffett are willing to bid it up. Plus, the company is buying back billions of dollars in stock each quarter.

However, this doesn’t change the fact that Apple is now losing “mind share” among the customers of the future — kids — and losing the innovation race by falling behind in the next wave of computing, which is going to be in voice-based cloud platforms. Watch in 2018 for the decline in the Apple stock price.

Regards,

Paul Mampilly

Editor, Profits Unlimited

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My Prediction for 2018 — This Forgotten Metal Will Soar

It was a brutal six years for the mining industry. While some metals saw their prices rebound in 2017, others didn’t.

There is a formula for rising prices — demand must exceed supply. In some cases, like zinc, a lack of investment meant supply fell below demand. Copper, whose price rose 27%since early 2016, is another metal that will struggle to meet demand.

In 2018, a different metal’s price will begin its rise…

Platinum’s New Trend

Here’s a six-year price chart of platinum:

Despite a 6-year decline in the price of platinum, it wouldn’t surprise me to see platinum prices rise 25% next year. Here's why it will happen.

You can see the steady decline from 2011 to 2016. The price fell by more than half to January 2016. There was a brief rebound that year. Then the price collapsed to its lowest price in two years earlier this month.

The question is: Why do I think this trend will change in 2018?

The answer is simple … supply can’t keep up with demand. In 2017, the supply/demand number was almost even. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, 2017 will end with a small deficit, around 15,000 ounces.

However, that same group expects the gap to expand. In 2018, demand for platinum will rise 2% to 8 million ounces. Supply will fall by 1% to 7.75 million ounces. That means the deficit will be 250,000 ounces.

An Extreme Low for Platinum Prices

In the past, this kind of deficit was enough to draw platinum sellers out. However, the platinum price is sitting at an extreme low. Without a significant increase in price, there won’t be an incentive for sellers. That’s one reason I expect platinum prices to rise in 2018.

But there’s another reason … sentiment.

One of the reasons that copper prices rose so rapidly in 2017 was the idea that electric vehicles would spur demand. That’s right, the price of copper rose because of expected demand. On the opposite side of the coin, platinum prices fell because of a lack of expected demand.

Platinum’s main commercial use is in diesel catalytic converters. In the wake of the Volkswagen scandal, where the company admitted to faking diesel efficiency, the perception of diesel cars fell. And so did the perception of platinum.

In other words, investors didn’t think demand for platinum would come, so they didn’t buy platinum. And so, the price fell.

From a supply perspective, platinum is far worse off than either zinc or copper. Platinum isn’t widespread. Most of the existing mines are deep, old and running out of metal. There aren’t many new platinum mines on the horizon.

Add that to low prices (which spur demand) and a stronger European economy (that prefers diesel cars). That will change platinum’s fortunes in 2018. It wouldn’t surprise me to see platinum prices rise 25% next year.

Good investing,

Matt Badiali

Editor, Real Wealth Strategist

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