Markets finished the first week of December on more of a Grinch footing than in a hoped for Santa Claus rally. Suffering another beating across the board, all the major indices finished in the red with the DJIA down 2.24%, the S&P 500 off 2.33%, and the Nasdaq faltering 3.05%. The arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, who is also the daughter of the Chinese company’s founder, threw a wrench into U.S./China trade negotiations. Ms. Meng, CFO of one of China’s largest companies, has been charged with fraud in misleading U.S. banks regarding transactions executed by them on Huawei’s behalf. The transactions were in direct violation of U.S. sanctions on Iran. The surprise arrest, as Ms. Meng changed planes in Canada, throws into turmoil yet again talks on trade tariffs between the two superpowers. It did not help markets when early Friday separate high level White House representatives, both involved in the trade talks, gave opposite views on what the 90 day freeze on tariffs means to the overall negotiations. It appears investors are in for a rocky ride into 2019 as the trade issue seems to become murkier by the day.  

Monday will bring earnings from Casey’s General Stores (CASY) and Stitch Fix (SFIX). Casey’s has missed earnings estimates 6 of the last 8 quarters, and the market is in an unforgiving mood for companies that miss estimates lately. Positive results last quarter, as reported by CEO Terry Handley, were driven by higher fuel margins, operating 105 more stores and cutting employee hours worked. As the company grows analysts will be looking for a stabilization of operating margins which have been in a steady decline since 2016. Stitch Fix will be looking to redeem itself after an early October earnings report that basically cut the stock in half over the next few trading sessions. While sales and active customer growth metrics both increased by over 20% last quarter, expectations were for much higher numbers. Though the company grew profit margins in the quarter, investors were more concerned with the active customer growth rate. Analysts will again be focusing more on customer growth than earnings when the company reports Monday.

The Labor Department will release the JOLTS numbers, which track job openings and offer rates on Monday. With somewhat weaker than expected job numbers on Friday, the JOLTS number will take on added emphasis. Scheduled for a 12:30pm release Monday is the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index. The index measures investor sentiment by looking at what activity retail investors are engaging in within their brokerage accounts. The report will be especially telling this time around given the extreme volatility in the market the past few weeks. Tuesday we’ll see small business optimism data, PPI, and Redbook retail data. Mortgage application data, CPI, and Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations will all be released on Wednesday. Inflation expectations, which came in at 2.2% year-over-year last month, may be falling as growth is expected to slow. Thursday investors will see the release of jobless claims, import and export prices, and the EIA natural gas report. We’ll close out the week Friday with industrial production numbers, retail sales, PMI composite flash numbers, and business inventories. Manufacturing is expected to pick up an additional .3% month-over-month.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Dave and Buster’s (PLAY) and DSW, Inc. (DSW) will give us a feel for the retail market when they report earnings on Tuesday. DSW broke through support levels Friday reaching prices it has not seen since June. Wednesday Nordson Corp. (NDSN), Tailored Brands (TLRD) and Oxford Industries (OXM) will take the earnings stage. Thursday, heavy-hitters Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST) and Cienna (CIEN) will take the center ring. Adobe has rewarded investors handsomely this year, up around 40% even after the recent pullback in the stock. Lee Enterprises (LEE) is scheduled to close out the earnings week on Friday.

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