Market Preview: Markets Open 2019 With Volatility Eerily Similar to Q4 2018

Markets continued to digest divergent economic and trade data, which is making it tough for investors to determine if a bottom is in place, or if there is more pain to come in 2019. Market futures plunged before the open on the first trading day of 2019 as manufacturing data out of China indicated the worst month for manufacturing in 19 months. The December data indicated China manufacturing actually contracted the last month of the year. This was followed by Redbook retail data in the U.S., which showed the strongest uptick in year-over-year spending in over 13 years. The weekly number for the week of December 29 showed a sizzling hot 9.3% increase in same store sales, far exceeding the 7.8% increase the prior week.

Add to that comments from President Trump that a deal could be done with China, combined with reported contradictory comments from his Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, that additional tariffs may be needed to bring China to the bargaining table. And, you had what has become the typical rollercoaster day with the markets plunging in the morning, only to recover to positive territory, and then finish the day nearly flat.

Earnings resume Thursday with numbers coming in from The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) and Landec Corporation (LNDC). Landec, a fresh foods focused company, recently acquired guacamole producer Yucatan Foods in early December. Analysts will be looking for an update on synergies with the new acquisition, and new earnings projections given a guacamole market in the U.S. growing at 20% per year. Simply Good Foods has been pouring money into building brand recognition recently. The stock was a winner for investors in 2018 rising from the mid-$14s to close the year around $19 per share.

It’s back to business as usual, apart from economic numbers not reported due to the partial government shutdown, on Thursday with the economic numbers coming fast and furious. Analysts will digest MBA mortgage applications data, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and a slew of jobs data. Set to be released is the Challenger Job-Cut Report, the ADP Employment Report, and jobless claims. The jobs numbers are expected to remain steady, with jobless claims holding at 217K from a prior 216K last week. Investors will be more focused on the drama playing out in Washington, as Democrats in the House are scheduled to present a budget which does not include funding for President Trump’s border wall.   

Friday brings employment situation data as well as PMI numbers for the services industry. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% with non-farm payroll numbers increasing 180K in December. The PMI services number is expected to drop over a point from November levels to 53.4. December has seen drops in both new orders and output numbers.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) will take to the earnings stage the final day of the first week of January. Lamb Weston, producer of frozen potatoes and other vegetables for retail and restaurants, was a buoy in the investing storm for investors in 2018. The company’s shares rose from the $56 level to finish near $73 on the year. Cal-Maine, the country’s largest egg producer, has been hampered recently by rising feed costs and a consumer turning to cage-free or other specialty eggs. A recent acquisition of Featherland Egg Farms will be on tap for discussion with analysts on Friday.  

7 Stocks to Sell In January

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The stock market ended 2018 on a sour note. Back in September, stocks were flying at record highs. Since then, they’ve dropped 20% amid a flurry of concerns ranging from higher rates to bigger tariffs to slowing growth. Yet, most Wall Street analysts view the selloff as overdone, and the consensus 2019 S&P 500 price target still sits around 3,000, representing a whopping 25% upside for stocks next year.

In other words, Wall Street is saying that the recent correction is simply near-term pain that will be replaced by long-term gain in 2019.

This consensus thesis seems rationale. The headwinds that are plaguing markets (falling oil prices, trade war tensions and rising rates) are all fixable, and will likely be fixed in 2019. OPEC is cutting production. China and the U.S. are starting to make cessations, and will likely continue to do so to stop from “over-hurting” their respective economies. And, the Fed will likely go more dovish in 2019, as the economy slows.

If those headwinds disappear in 2019, and growth remains stable, stocks should rally here, with the S&P 500 trading at its lowest trailing twelve month P/E multiple since 2012 and highest dividend yield since early 2016.

But, that doesn’t mean the rally will start in January, nor does it mean that this rising tide will lift all boats. Instead, there are a handful of stocks investors should continue to avoid, even in the new year.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at seven stocks to sell in January.

Tilray (TLRY)

Stocks To Sell In January: Tilray (TLRY)

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If you had to pick one stock to characterize the 2018 cannabis craze, it would have to be Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY). The Canadian pot company saw its stock go from $20 to $300 to $90 to $150 to $70, all in the matter of just five months.

The problem with Tilray heading into 2019 is that this stock’s biggest potential catalyst (a big investment from a big beverage or tobacco company) is now in the rear-view mirror. Global beverage giant and the world’s largest beer maker, AB InBev (NYSE:BUD), put in $50 million to help facilitate cannabis beverage research with Tilray. The deal was underwhelming. The initial pop in TLRY stock was faded. Now, it seems all the dry powder has been used up.

Meanwhile, the valuation is still extended and the Canadian cannabis market is still suffering from supply shortages. Overall, the near-term fundamentals here aren’t great, meaning TLRY stock should remain weak in early 2019.

Micron (MU)

Stocks To Sell In January: Micron (MU)

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Chipmaker Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is the type of stock you buy when the music is playing, and sell when the music isn’t playing. For the past several months, the music hasn’t been playing for Micron. It doesn’t look like it’s going to start playing anytime soon, either.

Demand across the memory space is stagnating due to global economic concerns. Meanwhile, supply is building. Thus, the current memory market dynamic is one defined by rising supply and falling demand, and that ultimately results in lower chip prices and lower margins for Micron. When margins fall, MU stock falls, too.

The problem here is that we are early in this down-cycle, and no one knows how long it will last. Thus, until the market gets confirmation that margins are turning a corner, MU stock will remain depressed, regardless of valuation, because no one knows exactly how far earnings will fall (prior down cycles have wiped out earnings entirely).

Yelp (YELP)

Stocks To Sell In January: Yelp (YELP)

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Over the past several years, Yelp (NASDAQ:YELP) has under performed its digital ad peers in a big way because the company’s digital ad business simply hasn’t gained the traction that the ad businesses at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FBAlphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) or Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) have.

Yet, despite this relatively weak ad business performance, Yelp stock has found a floor recently around $30 due to rumored M&A prospects. I don’t buy these prospects. Who would want to buy Yelp? The potential suitors include Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet. But, each of them are expanding an in-house recommendations and rating system, and those in-house systems are arguably already better than Yelp. Thus, there really isn’t a compelling M&A motive here.

Consequently, the M&A catalyst should fall out in 2019. Once it does, Yelp stock will drop.

Snap (SNAP)

Stocks To Sell In January: Snap (SNAP)

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If anything became crystal clear in 2018 in the digital ad space, it is that once trending Snap(NYSE:SNAP) is now an afterthought for users and advertisers.

The story here is simple. Snap pioneered a new way method of ephemeral photo sharing. Everyone loved it, and everyone joined Snapchat. But, Snap didn’t protect this method, and so everyone else copied it. Everyone else had more resources, too, so they actually made better versions of Snapchat. Those better versions stole all the users. Now, Snap is left with a maxed out user base that isn’t big enough to attract advertisers in bulk.

If advertisers don’t flock to Snap in bulk, ad prices will remain cheap and margins will remain depressed. Advertisers won’t flock to Snap until user growth picks back up. Thus, until user growth turns around, this is certainly one of the key stocks to sell in January and one that investors should avoid.

JCPenney (JCP)

Stocks To Sell In January: J.C. Penney (JCP)

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By now, it is well known that retailers had a really strong 2018 holiday showing. According to Mastercard, holiday retail sales rose 5% to their best level in six years, driven largely by a near 20% increase in digital shopping. But, not all retailers were big winners this holiday season. One retailer that appears to have struggled in a big way is JCPenney (NYSE:JCP).

JCP has struggled to compete in the hyper-competitive retail industry for several years. As other companies have built out omni-channel capabilities and improved product assortment, JCP has been too burdened by a debt-heavy balance sheet and falling margins to invest much of anything back into the business. As such, JCP has turned into the eyesore of retail.

This holiday season was more of the same. According to retail analytics firm Placer.ai, Black Friday weekend shopping traffic rose 10% this year. But, JCP under performed, with foot traffic rising just 1%. That’s a bearish read, and it underscores that even in a healthy economy, JCP continues to struggle. If JCP’s holiday numbers disappoint (as I expect them to), you could see JCP stock fall in a big way in early 2019.

Starbucks (SBUX)

Stocks To Sell In January: Starbucks (SBUX)

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The problem with retail coffee giant Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) is three fold. First, the entire growth narrative at Starbucks is centered around expansion in China. But, the Chinese economy is cooling, and is expected to keep cooling in 2019. The more it cools, the more Starbucks’ 2019 growth rates will be impacted, and the more of a drag that will have on SBUX stock.

Second, Starbucks is a premium-priced coffee house that is anything but recession resilient. Coffee is easy to get anywhere. But, coffee at Starbucks is more expensive than coffee at McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD). Thus, if the economy does slow in 2019 and the consumer starts to feel the impact, that means that morning Starbucks runs will be replaced by morning McDonald’s runs.

Third, SBUX stock trades at around 24 forward earnings. That’s a big multiple. It hardly takes into account the aforementioned risks. Thus, if those risks rear their ugly head in 2019, SBUX stock could drop in a big way.

Proctor & Gamble (PG)

During the market selloff, defense has become the new offense, and investors have rushed into defensive consumer staples names like Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG). But, this rush has inflated defensive stock valuations to levels that aren’t sustainable. In 2019, as clarity and stability emerge out of the ashes of the late 2018 selloff, defensive stocks like PG will likely suffer, which lands it on this list of stocks to sell.

At the current moment, PG stock trades at an above-average valuation with a below-average yield. The big valuation is the result of broad economic uncertainty. That uncertainty won’t last forever. Either we enter a recession in 2019, or we don’t. If we do, PG stock will drop because, while it’s recession resilient, it isn’t recession proof (during the 2008 recession, PG stock still fell about 40%). If we don’t, PG stock will fall because investors will stop playing defense, and will roll money back into growth names.

Overall, the current uncertainty that’s inflating PG stock won’t last forever. Indeed, it will likely come to an end in 2019. When it does, PG stock is liable to drop.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN, FB, GOOG and TWTR. 

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