Market Preview: Jobs Data Lifts Market


After gains earlier in the week, markets were somewhat mellow on Friday. The Dow and S&P 500 were up slightly, and the Nasdaq was off a quarter of a percent. Good jobs data earlier in the day buoyed markets, after less than stellar projections out of Amazon (AMZN). The online retailer said that 2019 will be a big investment year for the company, which was already anticipated. But news that the company was facing regulatory headwinds in India, and was projecting lighter sales, drove the stock down to finish off just over 5% on the day.  

Sysco (SYY) and Clorox (CLX) report before the bell bright and early Monday, but investors will be waiting for the closing bell to ring for Alphabet (GOOGL) to report. Even after coming off of 2018 highs, the search company is still a $783 billion market cap behemoth. After Facebook’s (FB) much better than anticipated numbers, analysts will be looking for good news on the advertising front from Google as well. The company is expected to make $11.08 a share, up on a year-over-year basis from $9.70.

Tuesday we’ll have a range of earnings reports from Walt Disney (DIS), British Petroleum (BP), and Estee Lauder (EL). Disney is back to the low end of the trading range it experienced for most of 2018, and has recovered from the end of year swoon it experienced. Wednesday is pharma day when Eli Lilly (LLY), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) all report.

Thursday the earnings spotlight will turn to Phillip Morris (PM), Sanofi (SNY) and Yum! Brands (YUM). Philip Morris made headlines early this year when it said it wants to eventually stop selling cigarettes. Investors will be looking for an update on the business plan moving forward if the company wishes to turn away from its main product. Friday we’ll hear from Exelon (EXC), Phillips 66 (PSX) and Hasbro (HAS).  

The economic calendar Monday, to begin the first full week of February, starts with motor vehicle sales, factory orders and the TD Ameritrade IMX, or investor sentiment survey. Investors who jumped ship in late 2018 as the market faced uncertainty may be coming off the sidelines after one of the best Januarys in 30 years. Factory orders for November, which are delayed from an original early January release schedule, are expected to come in up .4%. This follows a 2.1% decline in October.

Redbook retail data, PMI services and ISM non-manufacturing data will all be released Tuesday. The Purchasing Managers Index, made up of over 400 companies, last came in at 54.4 for December. Also slated for Tuesday is President Trump’s State of the Union address. Any news out of the speech, especially an update on how the Chinese trade situation is progressing, may impact markets Wednesday.

Mortgage applications, international trade data, and productivity and cost numbers will be scrutinized by analysts Wednesday. The composite mortgage numbers were down 3% last week, with refis coming in particularly weak, down 6%. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to host a town hall meeting at 7 pm Wednesday evening, taking questions from educators across the U.S..  

Thursday is a big day for economic data. Jobless claims and the EIA natural gas report will both be released Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon will find investors looking over consumer credit numbers, the Fed balance sheet, and money supply data. With the Fed projected to tap the brakes on quantitative tightening, analysts will be pouring over the Fed balance sheet numbers when they are released at 4:30 pm. Baker-Hughes rig count data comes out on Friday.