As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point from 2.00% to 2.25%. The Fed had done an excellent job of telegraphing the move, as the CME reported that 95% of traders expected the quarter point increase. With no surprises, the markets took the raise in stride, and finished flat. The only notable change to the Fed’s policy statement language was the removal of the word “accommodative” to describe Fed policy. With the rate increase out of the way, the market will likely turn back to trade tariffs as the main headline for the rest of the week. James Hackett, CEO of Ford (F), rekindled the tariff discussion Wednesday afternoon when he stated the tariffs on aluminum and steel have now cost the automobile manufacturer $1 billion in profit. It’s likely we’ll hear from several more companies in the days ahead as to the negative impact of the tariffs on their bottom lines.

Thursday morning Accenture  (ACN) and Carnival (CCL) will report earnings. The consulting and outsourcing company has put in a good showing this year with continued growth in both its business lines. Accenture has expanded its offerings in recent years by acquiring cloud and internet of things (IOT) companies that can augment its core business. Analysts are watching margins closely at the $110 billion company, as competition has been steadily increasing in both consulting and outsourcing. This is the biggest quarter of the year for Carnival. The company generates a disproportionate amount of its revenue and operating income in Q3. The stock has basically traded flat thus far in 2018. The main focus for investors as the company reports is whether Carnival can contain expenses as revenue rises. This quarter will definitely set the tone for the remainder of the year for the cruise company.

While the market was focused on the Fed and its Wednesday afternoon announcement, the remainder of the week is full of economic numbers to chew on. Thursday we’ll get reports on durable goods, GDP, international trade, jobless claims, pending home sales, wholesale inventories, retail inventories and corporate profits. Corporate profits are expected to jump to a healthy 6.7% year-over-year for Q2 ‘18. That’s a major uptick from .1% reported in Q1. On Friday we’ll see personal income and outlays, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment. The consumer sentiment number is expected to come in at 100.8, an important reversal of the downward trend in place since March of ‘18. The survey of 600 households measures both current conditions and expectations for future economic opportunity.

Friday earnings will include Vail Resorts (MTN) and BlackBerry (BB). While the summer earnings report from ski operator Vail Resorts may not be the most important of the year, it does give the company a chance to report on infrastructure improvements headed into the busy winter season. The company can also preview early season pass sales numbers for investors. BlackBerry isn’t your old BlackBerry anymore. But, the transformation has been long and arduous, and the accounting for old businesses along the way has clouded earnings. This may be the quarter the company’s connected car business comes into focus. Analysts are looking for a strong showing from the BlackBerry Technology Solutions (BTS) unit which houses the connected car operating system.

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A combination of U.S. and Chinese tariffs going into effect, and an expected rate hike later this week, drove the DJIA lower Monday. The Nasdaq held onto a slight gain following the introduction of the new S&P Communications Services sector. Trade and interest rates will continue to be the focus of the markets midweek. Any positive news on the trade front could send the markets higher, as an interest rate hike is baked in at this point. Markets are not expecting any surprises from the Fed on Wednesday as the economic numbers continue to be strong. Any deviation from the script by Chairman Powell would likely have a major impact.    

Tuesday the market will focus on Nike (NKE) as the company reports earnings for the first time following the airing of their latest advertising campaign, which includes Colin Kaepernick. In the current political climate many companies have chosen to distance themselves from controversial issues fearing a boycott of their products. Though Kaepernick is just one element of the ad campaign, analysts will be interested to hear how the company has performed since the campaign began, and what the company’s strategy was as they contemplated the pros and cons. Also reporting on Tuesday is Cintas (CTAS). The uniform rental company has been riding the surging economy and is up over 35% so far in 2018. Investors are looking for an earnings beat, and for some insight into what the company sees near term as the economy appears to be maintaining its positive trend.

Tuesday also kicks off the first day of a two day Fed meeting. Economic data released on Tuesday includes the Redbook retail sales numbers, the Case-Schiller home price index, the FHFA house price index, and consumer confidence. The confidence number is expected to fall slightly in September to 131.7 after a big increase in the August number. Wednesday will begin with mortgage applications and new home sales numbers, but everyone will be focused on the 2pm Fed announcement on interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates a quarter point. This announcement also includes a press conference by Fed Chair Powell. Markets will be listening closely for any clues of future rate increases.

Reporting earnings on Wednesday before the open is CarMax (KMX). The car retailer’s comparable store sales have been on a positive trend the past few quarters, but both numbers were on the negative side of the ledger. Analysts would like to see a return to positive comp sales, and ideally the company can show improvement on the bottom line as well. Joining CarMax is Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The home goods retailer has seen earnings drop for several years, and is facing stiff competition from Amazon and Walmart. Investors are looking to see if strong numbers from companies like Target (TGT) are translating to the discount retailer. If the company can produce an increase in margins we may see a bump in the stock, but analysts aren’t expecting much from the company as evidenced by the 13% decline so far this year.

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The Dow and S&P both hit record highs intraday on Friday thumbing their noses at trade concerns with China. The Nasdaq was off slightly. A sector change set to take place on Monday in which S&P telecom stocks will be combined with stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB) into a new sector dubbed communications services drove some market volatility late in the day. There may be more trade barbs exchanged over the weekend, but the main focus for investors next week will be the Fed. While it is widely expected the Fed will raise interest rates next week, the commentary that accompanies their actions will drive the markets. The statement will be dissected and compared to their last release which lauded the strong economy.

Only two companies are scheduled to release earnings on Monday. Amalgamated Bank (AMAL) and Ascena Retail Group (ASNA). This will mark Amalgamated’s second earnings release after the bank joined the Nasdaq earlier this year. As the number of banks has diminished, investors have shown their appetite for the socially responsible lender pushing the stock higher since its IPO. Analysts will be interested to see how rising interest rates will benefit the bank. Ascena, the parent of retailers Justice and Lane Bryant, has been focusing on reducing cost as its low end brands, like Dressbarn, stumble. Investors will be itching to hear how CEO David Jaffe plans to continue the stocks upward momentum after a 75% gain so far in 2018.

The Fed meeting isn’t the only game in town next week. The economic calendar is brimming with data for everyone. Monday the Chicago and Dallas Feds release industrial activity reports. Tuesday kicks off the Fed meeting, but we’ll also get some retail and housing data. Redbook retail data will be released, and we’ll see the Case-Shiller Home Price Index as well as the FHFA House Price Index. The FHFA Index, which covers only Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loans, is expected to rise 6.5% year over year. Wednesday afternoon the Fed makes its announcement on interest rates, but earlier in the day mortgage applications and new home sales numbers will be released. Thursday will bring durable goods numbers, GDP and jobless claims. GDP is expected to hold at 4.2%. Friday will close down the week with personal income numbers and consumer sentiment.

The most interesting earnings news next week will be from Nike (NKE). The company has been under a microscope lately after hiring Colin Kaepernick for an advertising campaign. Joining Nike on Tuesday will be Cintas (CTAS) and Manchester United (MANU). Wednesday Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and CarMax (KMX) will release their quarterly earnings. On Thursday Accenture (ACN) and Carnival (CCL) will take to the earnings stage. After falling post-earnings last quarter the cruise line has rallied back and is now trading above the pre-earnings number. BlackBerry (BB) and Vail Resorts (MTN) will wrap up the week’s earnings on Friday.

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Increasingly heated trade rhetoric between the U.S. and China did not dissuade the DJIA from a .61% rally on Wednesday. Pressure from Amazon (AMZN) held back the Nasdaq. Financials drove the Dow higher, even with financial analysts from companies like JP Morgan and BofA beginning to sharpen their knives when it comes to the bull market. Financials offset the increasingly negative outlook for utility stocks as rates have begun rising. While trade remains the main focus of market pundits, strong fundamentals continue to shine through in price action.  

Micron (MU) headlines Thursday’s earnings calendar. Investors in the stock have been on a wild ride in 2018. The company twice breached the $60 level only to fall back into the low $40s where it began the year. Analysts will be looking for a cheerier outlook from the company than the one it presented last quarter. Cautious management comments about the future sent the stock reeling. Also reporting on Thursday is Darden Restaurants (DRI). The Olive Garden owner has been on a roll with positive same store sales increasing quarter after quarter. Cheddar’s, Darden’s newest acquisition, was the lone black sheep last quarter. Analysts will be anxious to hear how the chain has improved.

Finally, Thor Industries (THO) will report on Thursday as well. The announced acquisition this week of Erwin Hymer, a European RV maker, gave the stock a small lift after falling throughout most of 2018. The company hopes growth in Europe will lift it out of the doldrums. Analysts will be looking for a report of integration plans and what the outlook is for the newly purchased company. The Friday earnings calendar is clear at this time.

The Thursday economic numbers will provide investors with a range of items from which to pick. The news includes jobless claims, the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, existing home sales, and leading economic indicators. After four months of slowing, existing home sales are expected to rise slightly from 5.34M to 5.36M in August. Economists are keeping a close eye on the housing market for signs of deterioration they fear may spill over into the general economy. Friday is a quadruple witching day with market index futures, market index options, stock options, and stock futures all expiring. These days are often more volatile than usual. Economic numbers Friday include PMI composite flash numbers and the Baker-Hughes rig count. Composite PMI is expected to come in at 55.1 almost unchanged from last month’s 55 level.

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News that President Trump is not happy with how China is responding to the threat of sanctions on $200B of Chinese goods sent the markets lower Monday. Larry Kudlow, the President’s National Economics Council head, said an announcement from the White House is likely very soon. This was followed by a White House statement that an announcement would be made after the markets closed Monday. Kudlow, in a CNBC interview, went on to say the Republicans likely will not pass a second tax cut before the midterms. Talk of an announcement of more cuts had buoyed the markets the past few weeks. While tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods is nothing new, the market may be beginning to doubt the President’s strategy. The fear that a full blown trade war with China will erupt should at a minimum keep the market in check, and may signal increased volatility short term.

General Mills (GIS) reports earnings on Tuesday. The packaged goods company is struggling to dig out of a hole in 2018. The stock is down almost 20% on the year, and has struggled with competition from private label on the low end and boutique operators on the high end. Analysts will be looking for a plan moving forward that addresses competition and compressing margins. Also reporting on Tuesday is Autozone (AZO). Automotive parts companies have done quite well this year, but competitors like Advance Auto Parts (AAP) look a little vulnerable at these levels. Investors should watch Autozone carefully for its impact on the overall sector.

Redbook retail numbers and the housing market index will both be released Tuesday morning. The housing market index, which measures sentiment among homebuilders, is expected to remain flat due to rising costs and a lack of workers. Wednesday, investors will examine housing starts, mortgage applications, the current account for trade, and petroleum inventories. The current account numbers will be closely scrutinized in this trade environment, and petroleum numbers will be closely watched to determine what the impact of Florence has been. Housing starts are expected to bounce back after a weak June and July. The consensus is at the high end of the range, and calls for 1.24 million new home starts. A miss will definitely be a negative for the market.     

Wednesday investors will hear earnings reports from Red Hat (RHT) and Copart (CPRT). Red Hat had a great first half of 2018, but then came crashing down after its last earnings call. Slowing growth was the culprit last quarter. Analysts are looking for additional business moving to the cloud, and how that transition is progressing for the open source company. As the economy has ratcheted higher in 2018, so has Copart. The online auto auctioneer reported increased revenue last quarter of almost 28%. The stock may be priced for perfection at this point. Investors may be interested to hear of any impacts from Hurricane Florence on future earnings for the company.

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Not even the announcement by President Trump that he is ready to levy tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods could keep the market down for long Friday. Maybe the market is catching on to the President’s hard-nosed negotiation style which has resulted in a new deal with Mexico and has Canada at the table? If the Chinese agree to the high level talks the administration has proposed, the market may take it as a green light that a deal will be reached. But, if they push back over the weekend, and return the tough stance with one of their own, investors could interpret it as going too far. Either way, all eyes have turned back to monitoring the proposed trade talks, and their direction is likely to drive market sentiment short term.

Two heavyweights, both of which stand to be impacted by trade talks, report on Monday. Oracle (ORCL) is in the midst of a business model change, and the market did not take kindly to transition problems it announced last quarter. The stock has since recovered, but analysts will expect more positive progress in the move to the cloud and Oracle’s new subscription model. Also reporting on Monday is Fedex (FDX). The package delivery company also took a beating after it’s last earnings report, but like ORCL has recovered much of that ground. Investors will be looking closely at the Fedex numbers to see if they indicate a cooling economy, or if competition from UPS, and Amazon’s growing delivery service, are eating into profits.

Monday we’ll get a look at the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Analysts will chew on the number more than usual, as it’s the only economic release on Monday. The survey of over 200 executives in New York State provides both numbers from the past month, as well as an outlook on what is coming in the next six months. The rest of the week has Redbook retail numbers, and the housing market index on Tuesday. Wednesday’s focus will be on housing, as we get mortgage applications and housing starts. Thursday is the busiest day of the week with jobless claims, the Philly Fed Outlook, existing home sales, leading indicators, and the EIA Nat Gas Report. Friday wraps up the week with PMI flash numbers and the Baker-Hughes Rig Count Report.

While the onslaught of earnings season has waned, there are still some large market moving companies reporting next week. Tuesday investors will examine numbers from General Mills (GIS) and Autozone (AZO). Wednesday we’ll see software maker Red Hat (RHT) report, along with $15B Copart (CPRT).Thursday, Micron (MU), which is trading near it’s lows for the year, will report. The semiconductor provider may have a comment on the potential tariff dispute, and how it is projected to impact future earnings. Also reporting Thursday is Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Thor Industries (THO). Currently the slate is clean for Friday of next week.

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The market went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride Wednesday. News that high level conversations with China may begin soon sparked a morning rally. But the exuberance wore off later in the day, with markets finishing relatively flat. Weighing heavily on the Dow was 3M (MMM). The CFO, speaking at an investor conference, complained of rising input costs and the stock began to fall. The stock finished the day down over 2%. Apple, announcing its new lineup of phones, did not spark a rally of enthusiasm, and also finished down over 1%. New tariffs on China, which many thought might be announced this week, appear to be delayed, as the government is focusing on Florence and what response may be necessary as the monster storm hits the Carolinas.

Thursday morning Kroger (KR) will report earnings. The $25B company gapped up and has continued to run into this latest release. In order to remain competitive the company has been on a buying and partnering spree to introduce meal kits, grocery pickup at your car, and online ordering. The conference call should provide an interesting update on how the company is innovating and where management sees their progress. Brady Corp. (BRC) will also announce earnings on Thursday. The identification and workplace safety company has been expanding margins, but growth has remained relatively flat. Analysts would like to hear where growth is going to come from when margin expansion runs its course.

The economic calendar on Thursday brings CPI and jobless claims. Following the 3M announcement CPI may be of more concern than was thought earlier in the week. Economists are expecting a moderate month-over-month rise of .3%. Friday the action picks up as we get retail sales, import export prices, industrial production, business inventories and consumer sentiment. Industrial production is expected to bounce back after a somewhat disturbing July number. August is projected to increase .4%, more in line with what the economy appears to be demanding.

The second full week of September will close out with earnings from Dave and Buster’s (PLAY) and MAM Software Group (MAM). Dave and Buster’s should provide an update on how its new store opening plan is coming along. The stock has been solidly to the upside this year. PLAY jumped substantially after its last earnings report, sold off, and is now back to those post earnings levels. MAM, the micro-cap company that provides software to aftermarket automotive suppliers, last quarter reported stable growth and a strengthening balance sheet. The company is transitioning to a SaaS model, and analysts will would like to hear the SaaS business continued at, or even outpaced, the 33% growth provided last quarter.

 

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Although still hundreds of miles off the east coast of the U.S., hurricane Florence was already impacting the markets on Monday. With the hurricane predicted to be a major event in the southeast, insurance companies Traveller’s and Allstate were each down around 2% Monday. Overall the markets were in an optimistic mood anticipating new tax cuts to be proposed later this week by a Republican held Congress. There was little worry about the tariff wars on Monday outside of Apple (AAPL), which said the tariff battle with China would impact products sold there, resulting in a pullback in the stock.

Tuesday the market will get earnings from Peak Resorts (SKIS). The owner of multiple ski properties has been on a roll this past winter. Fighting fickle weather patterns in the eastern U.S. the company invested heavily in additional snowmaking equipment and provided a multi-property lift pass. The bet paid off with record earnings last year. Analysts will be looking for additional innovative actions from the ski operator going forward. Also reporting on Tuesday will be Farmer Brothers (FARM). The coffee bean roaster had a difficult time pinpointing growth in its customer base last quarter. Investors would like to hear if that issue has been remedied, and if the company can now more accurately provide future growth data.

On Tuesday the market will hear how optimistic small businesses are in the current environment. Ten years after the anniversary of the financial meltdown, which is being revisited by multiple news outlets this week, the July small business optimism index stood at the second highest reading in 45 years. The index is expected to tick up slightly for August. We’ll also get Redbook retail data, wholesale trade numbers, and job openings data on Tuesday. The housing market will be in focus on Wednesday with new mortgage applications data being released. Other than trade issues, housing still tops the list of many economists as the sector which may slow the current market run. Purchases are expected to rise slightly but be offset by a slight decline in refinancing. Wednesday we’ll also get PPI, Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, and a petroleum status report. With Florence closer to the U.S. by Wednesday, the petroleum status report may take on added significance.

Jumping into the earnings ring on Wednesday is Oxford Industries (OXM) The owner of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer is expected to far outstrip earnings from a year ago. Last quarter Oxford’s direct-to-consumer ecommerce business was hitting on all cylinders. Analysts will be questioning the growth prospects for the company as competition continues to rise. Sticking with the same theme, Tailored Brands (TLRD) will also report on Wednesday. The owner of Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank provided preliminary earnings guidance on August 28th, so the market isn’t expecting any big surprises. Investors would like an update on the performance of the company’s new LIVE! strategy which connects online shoppers with in-store wardrobe consultants.    

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Markets were off slightly Friday. The jobs numbers were good, with 201,000 jobs created last month, but downward revisions of 50,000 the past two months lowered the monthly average. The market was slightly spooked by a spike in wages, the highest increase since 2009. That kept a lid on market action as investors worry a tightening labor market may be driving wages higher, leading to additional increases in interest rates. But the action seemed more of a pause after recent gains than concern by the market that there would be a selloff near term.

Monday the newly minted Sonos (SONO) reports for the first time after going public early last month. Early comparisons to Fitbit (FIT) and Gopro (GPRO) have some worried that the stock is headed lower after its IPO. Analysts will be anxious to hear what the growth prospects look like going forward. The citrus agribusiness company Limoneira (LMNR) also reports on Monday. The company is expected to report higher earnings, but on a lower revenue number. Analysts will want to know where new growth is coming from, not only about cost cutting measures.

Economic releases for next week begin Monday with the TD Ameritrade investor sentiment index. The index will provide a gauge on individual investor activity, and let the market know what the man on the street thinks of the recent rally. Has he been selling into it or putting money to work? Tuesday we’ll get Redbook retail numbers as well as job openings from the Labor Department. Wednesday analysts will see mortgage application numbers, along with the latest producer price index (PPI). The PPI is expected to be unchanged month-over-month. Thursday the market will focus on consumer price index (CPI) numbers, as well as weekly jobless claims. The week closes out with a busy Friday. Numbers include retail sales, import / export prices, industrial production, business inventories and consumer sentiment.

The rest of the week in earnings begins Tuesday morning when Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) kicks things off, followed by Farmer Brothers (FARM) Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday investors will weigh earnings from Pivotal Software (PVTL) and consulting firm Scientific Applications International (SAIC). We’ll learn if government spending is currently helping or hurting the beltway bandit. Thursday analysts will feast on the earnings of Kroger (KR) and The Lovesac (LOVE). And on Friday, Dave and Buster’s (PLAY) will entertain the market with their latest earnings release. The stock has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride this year. Analysts are expecting $.67 a share in earnings.

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Buffett could see this new asset run 2,524% in 2018. And he's not the only one... Mark Cuban says "it's the most exciting thing I've ever seen." Mark Zuckerberg threw down $19 billion to get a piece... Bill Gates wagered $26 billion trying to control it...
What is it?
It's not gold, crypto or any mainstream investment. But these mega-billionaires have bet the farm it's about to be the most valuable asset on Earth. Wall Street and the financial media have no clue what's about to happen...And if you act fast, you could earn as much as 2,524% before the year is up.
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