Tense negotiations between the U.S. and Canada stunted the week long rally in the markets, but so far it looks like a small pause as opposed to a reversal. The Nasdaq largely ignored the trade issues, which appear to be hung up on dairy farming subsidies, with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) leading the tech heavy index higher. Amazon is making a push to become the second trillion dollar market cap company after Apple reached that lofty valuation.  Monday may bring a different story if the Canada discussions continue with rancor, and EU tariff troubles make it back into the headlines. Thursday President Trump rekindled the smoldering trade war with the EU saying the European Union was not doing enough when they offered to remove tariffs on autos.

Monday is the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., and markets are closed. But the rest of the week brings plenty of earnings action. Tuesday Workday (WDAY), HealthEquity (HQY) and the business spend management company, Coupa Software (COUP) all report earnings numbers. Analysts will dissect earnings from Ctrip.com (CTRP) info security firm Zscaler (ZS), as well as data management company Cloudera (CLDR) on Wednesday. Some heavy hitters step to the plate on Thursday. Broadcom (AVGO), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) all report after the close. Dell Technologies (DVMT) will lead off on Thursday morning. Closing out the first week of September on Friday are Genesco (GCO) and Greece based Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP).  

Due to the holiday, no economic numbers will be reported on Monday. But for the rest of the week it’s back to business as usual. Tuesday kicks off with ISM manufacturing, PMI manufacturing, and construction spending. Wednesday investors will pick through motor vehicle sales, mortgage applications, Redbook data, and international trade. The trade numbers may be of particular interest if the tariff wars heat back up next week. Thursday is all about jobs, jobs, jobs. Analysts will decipher the job cut report, ADP employment report, and jobless claims. New claims last week came in at 213K. Also on tap for Thursday are productivity and cost numbers, the PMI Services Index, factory orders, and the ISM Non-manufacturing Index. And finally, Friday continues the jobs theme when the employment situation numbers are released. This includes the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and the month-over-month change in non-farm payrolls.

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Good news on several fronts is keeping the market in rally mode this week. A trade deal with Mexico, and what appears to be an imminent deal with Canada, have come much quicker than most pundits believed possible. GDP numbers released Wednesday morning revealed a 4.2% growth rate, the highest in 4 years. With Apple (AAPL) up on the trade news, Morgan Stanley fueled the fire even more by raising price targets on both Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN). Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs for the fourth straight session.

Thursday morning Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) trot into the earnings arena. While Dollar General has done well this year, bouncing back from an earnings disappointment at the end of May, Dollar Tree has been hammered after earnings reports in both March and May. Both companies blamed the weather for last quarter’s disappointment, which apparently contributed to lower sales and raised costs. Lululemon will report earnings after the close. The stock has been on a major run this year, and will need to report a perfect quarter to continue the blistering pace. Analysts expect new CEO Calvin McDonald to report an earnings increase of just over 25% when the athletic retailer takes the spotlight.

Thursday’s economic calendar includes jobless claims, the EIA natural gas report, and personal income and outlays. Income is expected to rise .3% and spending is expected to rise .4%. The core PCE Core Price Index, which is closely watched by the Fed as it sets interest rates, is expected to rise .2% for a year-on-year gain of 2%, which happens to be the Fed’s target. Friday, the last day of August, investors will see Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, and Baker-Hughes rig count numbers. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise slightly after a sharp downturn in July. The preliminary August report was the lowest since September of last year, with consumers still fretting over the then unsettling trade tariff news.

The lone earnings report delivered Friday morning will come from discount retailer Big Lots (BIG). Last quarter same-store sales fell a whopping 3%, and the stock breached a two year low before recovering and staging a rally. Analysts will be watching to see if the Big Lots earnings are on the mend, or if the retailer will continue to stumble through the rest of 2018. Traders may want to keep an eye on what technicians call a cup and handle pattern which could be forming in the stock.

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Good news on trade between the U.S. and Mexico kept a fire under the market that won’t quit on Monday. The two countries announced they had reached a deal on NAFTA, and it is expected that Canada will join the renegotiated deal, perhaps as early as the end of this week. The new deal would require that 75% of automobile content be made in the NAFTA region, compared to the current requirement for 62.5%. Automakers Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) both jumped on the news. Markets set new record highs, and the Dow reclaimed the 26,000 level.

As earnings season is in its final weeks, Tuesday morning the market will see earnings from Best Buy (BBY) and close the day with Hewlett Packard (HPE) . Best Buy is expected to increase quarterly earnings by approximately 20%. Analysts want to know if the electronics retailer is keeping pace with apparel retailers, and that consumers are not just opening their wallets for new clothes. Hewlett Packard fell after earnings last quarter and has yet to regain levels set earlier in the year. Analysts have a price target of $19.47 on the company, but they’ll likely need to have a large beat to propel the stock back toward those levels.   

Tuesday’s economic calendar will have investors hopping. The full calendar includes international trade in goods, retail inventories, advanced wholesale inventories, Redbook numbers, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and investor confidence numbers. The Case-Shiller number will be a major focus, as housing is currently seen as one of the few possible wrenches that could be thrown into the U.S. economy. Wednesday, analysts will get to see new mortgage applications, corporate profits after taxes, which are expected to be up 2.7% year-over-year, the pending home sales index, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report. But the real conversation will be around the GDP number released at 8:30AM. GDP is expected to come in at 4.0%, a slight decrease from last quarter’s 4.1%.

On Wednesday morning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will take center stage. This trendy teen outpost has been on fire this year, and analysts expect nothing less than a stellar quarter. CEO Jay Schottenstein would like to announce a repeat of last quarter when the retailer beat on both earnings and sales. After the close the customer relationship management monster Salesforce (CRM) will report earnings. The $113 billion company has been on an acquisition spree, gobbling up smaller CRM companies to add to its offerings. With its stock at an all time highs, investors are expecting a very friendly report out of the company.

The market continued its winning ways on Friday, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing at all time highs. Not even a firm stance on rising interests rates from Fed Chairman Powell could dampen the spirits of this aging bull market. Good economic news and even better earnings appear to be trumping political scandals and trade issues as we head into the waning days of summer. The CEO of Target may have put it best when discussing his company’s earnings earlier this week on CNBC, he said, “I think this is the healthiest environment I’ve ever seen.” The market apparently agrees.

Next week’s earnings calendar will give investors a wide range of stocks to parse. There will be additional retail numbers from Best Buy (BBY) on Tuesday, as well as a chance to check on the high end consumer when Tiffany (TIF) reports. Wednesday Salesforce (CRM) will detail their latest quarter in the customer management space, and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) will step onto the earnings stage. Thursday we’ll hear from two of the biggest discount retailers when both Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) report. They’ll be joined by apparel seller lululemon (LULU). The earnings calendar is clear for the last Friday in August. 

Monday we’ll get earnings from Heico (HEI) and Bilibili (BILI). Heico recently went through a stock split, and the industrial parts supplier increased its semiannual dividend by 7%. Analysts will be keen to hear how the aircraft parts supply business is fairing in a bumpy plane market. Last quarter BILI doubled its sales and had double-digit growth in its mobile business. Analysts are looking to see if BILI is keeping the pulse of the young Chinese consumer which makes up most of its market.

The economic calendar next week is chock full of data, but the biggest focus for analysts will be the GDP number on Wednesday. We’ll also get international trade in goods and consumer confidence on Tuesday. Later in the week we’ll take a look at personal income, jobless claims, and the latest consumer sentiment numbers. Monday analysts will be focused on two Fed numbers. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are both released Monday morning. The Chicago number tracks nationwide economic activity and inflation, while the Dallas Survey provides data out of Texas. Both numbers are expected to rise.

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The market went on a wild ride this week, with investors trying to navigate the crisis in Turkey combined with some conflicting economic numbers in the U.S. Productivity and retail sales were strong, but he housing market may be starting to weigh on the economy. A dearth of inventory, combined with a flight to safety in the bond market, is driving down mortgage rates. Home buyers are finding it difficult to find homes to purchase, which is starting to negatively impact businesses around the housing sector. Think home remodeling companies, real estate agents, and mortgage brokers.

As investors catch up over the weekend with what is happening in Turkey and whether Elon Musk violated securities laws via social media, analysts are preparing for earnings next week from Estee Lauder (EL), BHP Billiton (BBL), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Gap (GPS), and Foot Locker (FL). The wave of retail earnings should give some indication of how consumers are feeling about the economy, after some surprisingly low recent consumer sentiment numbers.

The economic calendar is clear on Monday, but Tuesday investors will examine the Redbook weekly retail sales numbers juxtaposed with the retail earnings coming next week. Wednesday the market will focus on new mortgage applications and existing home sales numbers to determine what impact the housing market is having on overall economic health. The housing focus will continue on Thursday when new home sales numbers are released along with the FHFA House Price Index. Last month the index was up .2 percent. Thursday also sees the release of weekly jobless claims, and kicks off the Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium. Friday the focus will be on durable goods orders and any news out of the Jackson Hole gathering.

When Estee Lauder releases earnings on Monday analysts are expecting a slowing of both top and bottomline growth. Oppenheimer recently put out a note explaining their long-term upbeat stance on the stock, but warned of near term headwinds. Investors will be interested in any prognostication from management for direction headed into Q3. Investors will also hear from Sasol (SSL) on Monday. The company ran into power outage issues last quarter which impacted production and earnings. The company projected the second half of the year would be much better than the first, with rising oil prices aiding the bottom line. Analysts will not want a repeat of last quarter’s excuse-filled conference call.

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In a tumultuous week for the markets amid tit-for-tat tariff actions by the U.S. and Turkey, economic numbers released so far this week have been quite good. Retail sales numbers exceeded expectations with consumers more freely opening their wallets. Productivity numbers also blew away estimates. The 2.9% rise in productivity was the largest quarterly gain in three years. And the Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 3 points to 25.6, when economists had expected a decline to 20. When the market turned briefly turned away from the Turkey crisis on Tuesday, the economic numbers actually had the indexes moving up.

Thursday morning investors will get earnings from Walmart (WMT) and then Nvidia (NVDA) reports after the close. Analysts are expecting Walmart to report growing revenue, but that growth is coming at the cost of additional investments in their e-commerce business. Keeping pace with rival Amazon is more expensive than management predicted last year. With low margin groceries a staple of Walmart’s online business, it is difficult for earnings to outstrip investment costs. Although the growth rate in Nvidia’s largest market, gaming, appears to be slowing slightly, and cryptocurrency has taken a beating, analysts still expect the company to report a good Q2. With a new chip set architecture just announced, and growth in the datacenter business accelerating, the company appears to be on pace for a good second half of the year.

The economic calendar for Thursday and Friday doesn’t give investors much downtime after the onslaught of releases Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday brings housing starts, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed Business Survey, all before the market opens. Economists expect a slightly higher housing starts number in July after an unexpected sharp decline in June. Friday investors will examine consumer sentiment and e-commerce retail numbers. They’ll also get a look at the index of leading economic indicators. The index was up .2 percent in June, but analysts expect a pick-up in the second half of the year, and July is predicted to jump .4 percent to kick things off.

Deere (DE)  will report earnings on Friday. The company disappointed analysts last quarter due to rising costs and the early impact of trade tariffs. J.P. Morgan recently cut its price target on the farm equipment maker, lowering expectations further for Q2. Investors will be looking for further impact from trade tariffs, which may be delaying purchases of equipment by farmers.

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Tuesday investors will continue to watch the currency crisis in Turkey unfold, and try to decipher what, if any, impact it will have on U.S. markets. While viewed in isolation, the crisis has little impact on U.S. companies. But, analysts fear a domino effect from the weakening lira. On Friday the market suffered its largest one day decline since early June, and investors don’t want to be left holding the bag if decisions in Turkey begin spilling into other markets. Protecting gains and hiding in quality may be the buzzwords most used for the remainder of the week.

On Tuesday Home Depot (HD) reports earnings. Analysts are looking for the home building and remodeling stock to put up good numbers. After missing earnings projections earlier this year, due to cold and severe weather, HD is expected to rebound in the second quarter and benefit from an upward remodeling trend. The trend has been fueled by construction costs outpacing home appreciation numbers, which are forcing homeowners to postpone new home purchases. Also reporting on Tuesday is Advance Auto Parts (AAP). Tom Greco, Advance CEO, also blamed weather for the auto parts retailer’s numbers earlier this year. Analysts will be looking for the company to continue to increase operational efficiency numbers this quarter, and improve the top-line as well.

Tuesday’s economic calendar brings import and export prices. Analysts are looking for July import prices to rebound after an unexpected .4 percent decline in June. Wednesday investors will focus on retail sales numbers. The headline number is expected to be a relatively weak .1 percent gain, but that is due to weakness in auto sales. The ex-auto numbers are expected at a more healthy .4 percent increase. Productivity and cost numbers for 2Q will also be released on Wednesday. High unit costs in the first quarter limited productivity gains, but those numbers are expected to rebound in 2Q with productivity projected to jump 2.5%, holding down labor costs. Investors will also have to digest new mortgage application numbers, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and industrial production, all Wednesday morning.

Earnings are on tap from Macy’s (M) Wednesday morning and Cisco Systems (CSCO) after the close. After excellent inventory control measures buoyed the stock last quarter, analysts are looking for a continuation of the turnaround story at Macy’s this quarter. Momentum gained earlier in the year is expected to vault the retailer to another earnings beat on Wednesday. Analysts are giving Cisco a pass on earnings this quarter. With European weakness and the recent announced acquisition of Duo (a network security company) analysts believe CSCO may miss earnings this quarter, But, consensus is that the networking provider is on the right strategic path and that the upcoming quarter will be the real litmus test for the San Jose based tech company.

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Though earnings season is winding down, there are still a few market-moving companies to report next week. Home Depot (HD), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Walmart (WMT) and Deere (DE) all will be reporting earnings. From these reports investors will interpret data on consumer spending, the health of the tech rally, and how U.S. companies are being treated internationally as the tariff standoffs continue. Most expect good numbers from these stalwarts as reporting on second quarter earnings winds down.   

While this week’s economic calendar was light, next week brings a bevy of economic numbers for analysts to chew on. We’ll start off lite with nothing Monday and only import and export prices on Tuesday. But, hold onto your economic hats as Wednesday brings new mortgage applications, retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey, productivity and unit costs, industrial production, and business inventories. Needless to say there will be a plethora of analysts spouting opinions as the economic numbers fly. Thursday we’ll get housing starts and jobless claims, and we’ll wrap up the week with consumer sentiment on Friday

Monday investors will digest earnings from foodservice supplier Sysco (SYY). Analysts are looking for Sysco to continue its winning ways, with the stock up over 40% the past year. The main question for management will be how they are planning on handling rising commodity costs going forward. Also reporting Monday is JinkoSolar (JKS). Named the number one supplier of solar panels in China by Fortune, the stock has been in a steady decline. Analysts will want to know if rising oil prices are improving the prospects for solar. But, there will also be questions around U.S. tariffs on solar products and how that will impact Jinko.

With no economic numbers Monday, the market may also focus on earnings from YY, Inc. (YY). Fortnite has been blowing up streaming services like Twitch, a subsidiary of Amazon (AMZN). Analysts  will be eager to hear how the Chinese streaming service is faring, and how they perceive the competitive landscape in this evolving sector.

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Thursday morning investors will hear earnings from Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH). The company preannounced a strong quarter last month, so analysts will be looking for a positive outlook from the company. Cruise industry stocks have been under pressure this year as investors fear too many ships are coming online outstripping demand. In the afternoon investors will hear from Dropbox (DBX). The storage company recently increased the storage size available to business customers without raising prices. Analysts are generally positive on the stock which went public earlier this year, spiked up 50%, and then traded back to its IPO price.

Thursday will also bring Jobless Claims which have been hovering at the lowest level seen in decades. Investors will be looking for any hint of an unexpected trend change. The Producer Price Index for July will also be released. The expectation is for a 0.3 percent increase, after increases in May and June were attributed to trade services and trade tariff expectations. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will also be speaking Thursday morning. Fed watchers will be parsing Mr. Evan’s speech for any hint that he is moving even further into the camp that believes interest rates must rise.

The earnings calendar is relatively light on Friday, as earnings season is in its final weeks. Investors will hear from Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) and Ruth’s Hospitality Group (RUTH). Analysts are expecting Applied to increase earnings almost 30% year-over-year. The almost 100 year old industrial supply company should give some color on general industrial health in the U.S. Ruth’s, owner of Ruth’s Chris Steak House, will also announce earnings on Friday. The stock has been on an upward trajectory for the past year. Investors will be waiting to hear of any changes from incoming CEO Cheryl Henry. Ms. Henry has been the President and Chief Operating Officer of the company, and is replacing outgoing CEO Michael P. O’Donnell.

On the economic front, Friday’s conversation will be around the Consumer Price Index numbers released Friday morning. Economists are expecting a 0.2 percent gain in July, following a 0.1 percent gain in June. The number is closely watched as a gauge of inflation, and will feed the conversation around whether the Fed is raising interest rates too quickly. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count numbers will be released at 1pm. Investors will be watching this number closely to see if the rig count is rising and if that number is high enough to slow the steady increase in the price of oil. The prior week’s numbers stood at 1,267 active rigs in North America.