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4 Stocks Profiting From Amazon’s Decline

ecommerce stocks

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The stock market rout has left no victims, least of all secular growth giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN). Mostly thanks to a rapid slowdown in the e-commerce business, Amazon stock has dropped into bear market territory recently and is having trouble staging a reversal.

The rapid slowdown in Amazon’s e-commerce business isn’t a good thing for Amazon stock. But it also isn’t that much of a surprise. After all, the business had been growing at ridiculous rates over the past several years, and expanded to control 50% of the U.S. e-commerce market. That wasn’t sustainable. Eventually, other retailers would pivot en masse to the digital channel, market share would be more evenly distributed and Amazon’s e-commerce growth would slow.

That is happening now. Amazon’s e-retail growth rates are coming off the rails. But, other retailer’s e-commerce growth rates are actually improving. That means that while Amazon stock falls, there actually a group of stocks out there that are consequently winning.

Which stocks belong in this group? Let’s take a closer look at four stocks that are winning as a result of Amazon’s e-commerce slowdown.

Pros and Cons to Buying Walmart Stock Ahead of the Holidays

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Stocks Winning as Amazon Stock Falls: Walmart (WMT)

The first pick on this list is an obvious one. Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is the 400-pound elephant in the retail world that has gradually ceded share to Amazon over the years. But, that trend has sharply reversed course recently.

Over the past several quarters, Amazon’s total e-commerce growth rates (online store sales plus third-party sellers services) have decelerated from the mid-20’s to just 15% last quarter. Given the weak Q4 guide, that growth rate will presumably slow to below 15% in Q4.

Meanwhile, during that stretch, Walmart’s e-commerce growth rates have consistently hovered north of 20% and often closer to 40%. Last quarter, for example, Walmart’s e-commerce sales rose by 40%. Thus, as Amazon’s e-commerce growth has cooled to sub 20% rates, Walmart’s e-commerce growth has sustained itself around 40%.

That means Walmart is rapidly stealing share from Amazon in the e-commerce world. This shifting of market share from Amazon to Walmart was inevitable. Amazon controlled 50% of the U.S. e-commerce market in 2017. Walmart controlled just 4%. In terms of total retail sales, though, Walmart dwarfs Amazon, so as Walmart pivots to e-commerce, its share will naturally grow and Amazon’s share will naturally fall.

Investors should expect this dynamic to persist for the foreseeable future. Consequently, Walmart stock should rise due to sustained robust e-commerce growth as Amazon’s e-commerce business cools.

Stocks Winning as Amazon Stock Falls: Target (TGT)

The second pick on this list is just as obvious as the first pick. If Walmart is the 400-pound elephant in the retail world, Target (NYSE:TGT) is its 50-pound little brother. Just as Walmart has gradually ceded share to Amazon over the past several years, Target, too, has ceded share. But, just as is the case at Walmart, this market share erosion trend at Target has reversed course recently.

Over the past several quarters, as Amazon’s e-commerce growth rates have slowed to 15%, Target’s e-commerce growth rates have not just remained robust like they have at Walmart, but actually accelerated higher. A year ago, Target’s e-commerce business was growing at a 30% rate. Last quarter, the e-commerce business grew at a 40%-plus rate.

Overall, as Amazon’s e-commerce growth has cooled, Target’s e-commerce growth rate has heated up to industry-leading levels. Among the retail Big 3 of Amazon, Walmart and Target, Target posted the highest e-commerce growth rate last quarter.

This dynamic will persist. In 2017, Amazon had 50% share of the U.S. e-commerce market to Target’s sub-1% share. But, Amazon’s North America retail operations aren’t 50 times as large as Target’s North America retail operations. Instead, Amazon North America retail has about twice the sales volume of Target.

Thus, as the e-commerce market continues to democratize over the next several years, Target will gradually gain share. These share gains will come at the expense of Amazon, so as Amazon’s e-commerce business cools, Target stock should rise.

etsy stock

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Stocks Winning as Amazon Stock Falls: Etsy (ETSY)

This pick is less obvious than the first two picks. Nonetheless, Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) is an undeniable winner as Amazon’s e-commerce business slows. The biggest knock against ETSY stock over the past several years is that it doesn’t deserve its valuation because of inevitable “Amazonification.” Eventually, Amazon would copy exactly what Etsy does, and replicate it with greater scale and at lower prices. Sellers would quickly leave Etsy. Buyers would follow suit. The whole Etsy platform would collapse, and ETSY stock would drop.

That hasn’t happened.

Instead, Amazon’s e-commerce business has cooled. In particular, the company’s third-party services growth rate has cooled form 40% and up a few quarters ago, to 30% and slowing last quarter. Meanwhile, during that stretch, gross merchandise sales growth on Etsy has accelerated for four consecutive quarters and registered at a multi-quarter high of over 20% last quarter.

Thus, while Amazon’s third-party e-commerce growth has cooled, Etsy’s gross merchandise sales growth has accelerated.

I don’t think this is a coincidence. Etsy has clearly established a niche for itself as a trusted digital marketplace for the buying and selling of handmade arts and crafts. Amazon has tried to penetrate this market. But, they haven’t had great success. Now, Amazon’s growth is slowing. Etsy’s growth is ramping. Ultimately, that means that as Amazon’s e-commerce business continues to slow, ETSY stock will benefit.

Stocks Winning as Amazon Stock Falls: Shopify (SHOP)

This may be the least obvious pick on this list, but it also may be the biggest beneficiary of Amazon’s slowing e-commerce growth. Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), which provides e-commerce tools and solutions for retailers of all shapes and sizes, benefits tremendously when e-retail gets democratized.

Ultimately, the Shopify business model hinges on this aforementioned democratization of e-retail. Shopify provides e-commerce tools and solutions for all retailers, but with a heavy emphasis on smaller retailers who aren’t equipped to sell efficiently through digital channels. If there are only 10 retailers in the whole e-commerce world, Shopify’s market is small. But, if the e-retail world starts to look like the physical retail world with millions of retailers, then Shopify’s market becomes quite big.

Right now, we are in the process of Shopify’s market going from relatively small, to huge. In 2017, the top 10 e-commerce retailers controlled upwards of 70% of total e-commerce sales. That is exceptionally uneven distribution. In the total retail world, the top 10 retailers account for just 30%of the total retail sales among the top 250 retailers, and presumably a much smaller share of total retail sales among all retailers.

The biggest driver behind this uneven distribution? Amazon. Now, though, Amazon e-retail is cooling. By a whole bunch. Meanwhile, e-commerce growth rates throughout the U.S. remain as robust as they were a year ago, so that means most of the growth in e-commerce is coming from players not named Amazon, and that the number of retailers with e-commerce operations is growing.

That is a great thing for Shopify. In the long-term, the e-retail environment should look a lot like the brick-and-mortar retail environment in terms of sales distribution, and that means we have lot more democratizing to do. From this perspective, Shopify stock is a big winner as a result of Amazon’s slowing e-commerce business.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN, WMT and SHOP.

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10 Stocks to Buy for a Midterm Rally

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After too many long months of campaign ads and political bickering, the end is in sight. That is, as of Wednesday morning we’ll have chosen our next batch of elected officials, thrilling roughly one half of the country while simultaneously disappointing the other half. So what are the best stocks to buy?

As investors, none of us should really care too much about the outcome despite the fear-mongering from both sides of the table. The third year of any presidency, or the year following midterm elections, tends to be a good one no matter which party is in control and which party loses control of at least one congressional house. Since 1928, the third year of a presidential term averages a gain of just under 14%, making it the most fruitful year of any of the four years of a presidency.

Assuming President Donald Trump’s third year is going to be the typically bullish one regardless of how much representation the Democrats are able to claw back from Republicans, you may want to make sure you’ve got exposure to the equity market sooner than later. Here’s a run-down of ten stocks to buy, as they look particularly well-positioned for strong 2019.

Source: Shutterstock

Alaska Air Group (ALK)

In its long-term industry outlook, aircraft maker Boeing (NYSE:BA) indicated that demand for air travel would grow at an average annualized pace of 4.7% for the next 20 years. Although intended to point to demand for new aircraft purchases, it’s also encouraging for airline investors. After all, it’s the carriers that will be buying these planes to meet that demand.

In most cases, it’s a major name like Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) an investor would opt to own. In this case, though, a smaller player like Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) might be a better choice. And, if the Trump-driven economy continues to grow as it has, Alaska Air is apt to report solid 2019 numbers.

Last quarter’s margins and earnings were both much better than expected, and it looks like the company’s costs-surge are finally starting to abate for good.

Why the Big Rally in PayPal Stock Can Continue

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Paypal (PYPL)

Paypal (NASDAQ:PYPL) isn’t a company that needs an introduction. It’s still the biggest name in online payments, and deals with partners like Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA) mean it’s also making headway within the all-important point of purchase (POP) market. And, it’s also a direct beneficiary of the convergence of economic growth and an increasingly-digital consumer.

There are a couple of kickers, however, that could make 2019 a huge year for PayPal. One of them is the fact that PayPal has finally started to seriously monetize its peer-to-peer money transfer platform Venmo … something it had been slow to do, wanting to draw people into the ecosystem.

The other bullish argument for the coming year is that the company has earmarked $3 billion per year just to make acquisitions. Each bolt-on bolster’s PayPal’s dominance of the industry.

bank of America stock

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Bank of America (BAC)

This year hasn’t been a particularly good one for Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) shareholders, with BAC stock down roughly 5% year-to-date versus the broad market’s modest gain. Investors are concerned the adverse impact of higher interest rates is more potent than the benefit of higher interest rates.

So far that hasn’t actually been a merited concern. In its third quarter, lending activity was up 1.4%, and margins topped expectations.

To the extent fear of rising rates is the key culprit though, the coming year could be an easier one for shareholders to stomach, making BofA one of several top stocks to buy. Against a backdrop of a rock-solid economy, the market’s only planning on two or three rate hikes for 2019, versus what will almost certainly be four increases this year when all is said and done.

Waste Management (WM)

It often goes unnoticed, just because of the nature of the industry. But, in times of economic growth, the nation’s capacity to create garbage swells. Enter Waste Management (NYSE:WM) … the company that turns garbage into money.

Although revenue is only projected to grow a little less than 3% this year, per-share earnings are expected to swell by 28%. Next year’s projected sales growth of almost 5% should improve the bottom line by a little more than 7%.

Waste Management CEO Jim Fish explained following the release of the company’s third-quarter numbers “those [dumpster rentals] are a really good proxy for how small business is doing, and small business seems to be doing well based on that [last quarter’s rental revenue].

The industrial side of our business is more a proxy for manufacturing, and that’s doing really well too.”

Why Nvidia Stock Could Rally to $400

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Nvidia (NVDA)

One of the early criticisms of the Trump White House has been a lack of a strong government-encouraged plan to advance the development of artificial intelligence technologies.

It’s since been addressed, though the noise of political campaigns has proven distracting. Once the midterms are over though, voters and consumers may be surprised at how close the country’s artificial intelligence players are to reaching something of a critical mass.

It’s a development that bodes well for many hardware and software companies, but arguablyNvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is among the best of the best stocks to plug into AI mania.

It’s one of the few outfits that’s built artificial intelligence machines from the ground up to do just that, and last quarter’s 83% growth in its data center business largely reflects the young swell of demand for AI architecture.

The coming year could be a huge one for artificial intelligence now that Washington is also on board with its cultivation.

CSX Corp. (CSX)

Regardless of your opinion of him, it’s impossible to deny that Donald Trump has rekindled America’s manufacturing industry. He’s also revived the country’s natural resources industries. Both have, in turn, proven to be a boon for the nation’s transportation industry, which is about as busy as they’ve been in a while hauling newly mined or freshly manufactured goods from one coast to the other.

Rail carrier CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. Railroads have been busier this year than they’ve been since 2015, and CSX itself is projected to improve its top line by 7.3% this year once the final tally is taken.

The carrier’s real growth, though, is on the bottom line. Last year’s per-share profit of $2.30 is expected to reach $3.82 this year and grow to $4.23 next year, riding the wave of the nation’s revived industrial machine.

Source: Shutterstock

Raytheon (RTN)

Contrary to what it’s looked and felt like of late, there is one thing Democrats and Republicans mostly agree on — the nation needs a strong defense, even if it requires a massive amount of money to muster it.

There are plenty of defense contractors to choose from, but it’s Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) may quietly be one of the top stocks to invest in from the sector. It offers everything from training services to missile systems to cyber warfare to mission control platforms, and more. It’s not only a highly diversified company, it’s a company that’s very much in tune with the nuances of modern-day warfare.

More than anything though, it’s a company on the right side of governmental spending plans. Washington has already budgeted $688.6 billion for military spending in 2019, up 3.5% from 2018’s budget of $664.7 billion. And better still, the government is working with tentative military spending plans of $732.4 billion for 2020.

Makeup brush and beauty supplies

Source: iStockphoto

AptarGroup (ATR)

AptarGroup (NYSE:ATR) isn’t exactly a household name. But, maybe it should be … considering the likelihood that there’s something in every U.S. household wrapped in a package made by Aptar.

Yes, AptarGroup makes a variety of packaging solutions, from pieces of cosmetics containers to condiment bottle flip lids to medical inhalers, and more. It’s another one of the names like Waste Management and CSX. That is, everybody benefits from it, but nobody realizes it. That is, they wouldn’t realize how important Aptar is until the company was gone.

The good news is, Aptar isn’t apt to be going anywhere. This year’s sales are projected to grow nearly 12%, driving more than a 13% improvement in the company’s bottom line. Next year’s expected 8% growth in revenue should bolster the bottom line by 12%.

Source: Shutterstock

FireEye (FEYE)

For years cybersecurity company FireEye (NASDAQ:FEYE) was questioned for spending so heavily on acquisitions, and booking steady GAAP losses as a result.

In retrospect though, there may have been a method to the madness. With so many marketable weapons now at its disposal available in one cloud-based suite called Helix, FireEye has a recurring-revenue machine that’s not only up and running, but running in high gear.

That still doesn’t fully make the case that FireEye is read to end 2018 on a high note and set the stage for a huge 2019. But, this will. Thanks to all the new recurring-revenue customers that have been added of late, last year’s per-share loss of 16 cents is on pace to be a full-year profit of eight cents this year, and grow to earnings of 169 cents per share in 2019. That’s a huge validation of everything the company’s been doing for a long while now.

Dick's stock

Source: Shutterstock

Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS)

Last but not least, add Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) to your list of stocks to buy after the midterm elections are over.

There was a time not too long ago when Dicks Sporting Goods’ future looked bleak. A cyclical wave of sneaker mania and athletic apparel demand peaked a couple of years back, marked by a string of athletic shoe and clothing store closures. Sports Authority’s bankruptcy and Finish Line’s shuttering of 150 locales in 2016 speaks volumes on the matter.

In some ways though, that industry headwind left Dicks Sporting Goods even better positioned to ride the wave of renewed consumerism. With much less competition to contend with, the retailer is expected to start growing its top line again next year.

It’s only projected growth of 2.4%, but the small improvement in sales is also expected to improve the company’s per-share earnings figures at an even faster clip.

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2 Dividends Over 10% That Are Actually Worth Buying

When it comes to dividends, any stock yielding more than 10% these days needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That’s because bigger isn’t usually better when you’re talking about dividend yields.

Any income investment can be priced relative to government interest rates, currently between 2% and 3%, depending on how much extra risk you’re willing to take on. Historically-speaking, any time a stock is paying more than seven percentage points above the AAA-rated, government-secured debt, investors begin to worry if the dividend could be cut.

However, following the 7% loss suffered by the S&P 500 in October, more stocks are sporting a double-digit yield that at any other point in 2018. With that in mind, I’ve highlighted two dividends above 10% that appear secure enough to buy, following the recent market decline.

Worthwhile 10%+ Yielder No. 1: Demand and Dividend Rising

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) is a coal limited partnership that is the largest operator in the Illinois Basin, where the product naturally burns cleaner for the amount of energy that’s created.

The stock offers investors a rare opportunity. The company pays a quarterly distribution $0.525 a share (10.8% dividend yield) that management has actually boosted the payout six straight quarters.

Any commodity business boils down to supply and demand and Alliance Resource is currently in the catbird seat. Management is planning to set increase production by 8% this year and another 6% to 10% in 2019, to keep up with higher coal demand outside of the U.S.

The company earned $0.55 a share in the third quarter, which covered the dividend, aided by higher coal demand. Management has also been buying back shares, but history shows the supply/demand balance is delicate in all commodity markets and can quickly reverse.

Worthwhile 10%+ Yielder No. 2: Savvy Investor Leveraged to Rising Rates

New Mountain Finance (NMFC) is a business development company (BDC) that invests primarily in technology, healthcare and other non-cyclical industries.  The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.34 a share (10.2% yield) that management has covered every quarter with net investment income (NII) since going public in 2011.

In addition, New Mountain is leveraged to benefit from rising interest rates. 86% of the company’s debt investments are floating-rate and the majority of its debt financing is at fixed rates. As a result, management estimates that annual NII will grow by $0.10 a share, for every 100 basis-point rate increase.

Like a lot of BDC’s, New Mountain will soon increase its maximum capital leverage to 2:1, thanks to favorable government regulations. This coupled with the company’s exposure to rising interest rates, has led to a consensus profit expectation for 6% average annual earnings growth over the next three years.

It’s also worth noting that chief operating officer John Kline bought 17,250 shares of New Mountain on the open market back in September. There are several reasons why company insiders may sell shares, but they usually only buy when they believe the business is headed in the right direction.

The sharp market selloff in October has created some potential buying opportunities, but chasing double-digit yields remains a risky business. A stable dividend yield of 10% is nice, but there are far more landmines than potential winners in this space.

The good news is: there’s a better way. There are better bargains to be had, for secure 7% to 8% yields with upside potential and monthly payouts to boot.

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Source: Contrarian Outlook

Fear and Doubt Are Running the Stock Market – Here’s How to Profit

It’s the start of a brand-new week… and much more importantly, the start of an entirely new stock market.

That’s right: Everything’s changed.

The overriding bullish sentiment that powered markets higher for nine years died last week.

It was at death’s door the week of Oct. 15, but the bull had a pulse at least.

Not anymore. It’s flatlined. R.I.P.

The action last week… ouch; it was ugly. Particularly the Nasdaq, which is well on track for its worst October since 2008.

In fact, that may have been the decisive “death blow.”

Why was that so bad?

Well, for years, the tech darlings, chiefly the FAANG stocks – Facebook Inc.(NASDAQ: FB), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), Google’s parent company, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) – would routinely lead markets higher.

Not anymore.

Don’t let Monday’s rally fool you. There’s just not enough there to change the inevitable fact that there’s a new boss in town…

The Mega-Cap Tech Leaders Are Gasping for Air

The Street is talking. Good times or bad, that’ll never change, but there’s a new topic of conversation on the table.

See, the Street isn’t buzzing about record earnings, or record profit margins, or inflows into passive investment funds anymore.

It’s about peak earnings, stretched profit margins, and outflows from indexed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Fear and skepticism are the flavor of the day.

As far as I’m concerned, there’s no magic potion investors can take to mask the bad taste they have in their mouths now.

When companies come out with good earnings, they go up then collapse back. When they miss on the top line, the bottom line, or pare back future guidance, the get pummeled mercilessly.

The hell of it is, nothing’s changed, fundamentally speaking. Misses aren’t bad; beats have been convincing.

It’s just that the market isn’t looking healthy. Technically, it looks like there’s a huge weight breaking its back.

That’s sentiment and psychology. And that’s what’s changed.

We’ll respond to it with a classic from my playbook, though…

Even a Downtrend Is Still Your Friend

And it always will be, whether the bulls are running or the bears are rampaging.

Go with the flow.

There’s no sense in fighting it because, if you do, you’re just as likely as not to get sucked under, like millions of investors did over the past two weeks.

In my paid trading services, for instance, several positions I was researching opened down too much. To get into those positions would be to chase them, and that would be foolish.

It’s not unexpected, it’s just indicative of how quickly a lot of stocks got levelled.

It’s just the way it is. It’s not the end of the world.

From here, for the time being, I like being on the short side of things. That’s what I’m going to recommend for my paid-up readers as we look at specific sputtering companies to target.

Otherwise, it’s a smart idea to – you guessed it – go with the trend, and play the broad declines with “bear” vehicles, like the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF(NYSEArca: SH), the ProShares Short Dow 30 ETF (NYSEArca: DOG), and the ProShares Short QQQ ETF (NYSEArca: PSQ).

The trend is down until proven otherwise. It’s not unrealistic to expect these bear runs to continue until the midterm elections are history.

Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would not try to anticipate a change in the weather.

But it will change eventually.

When lightning strikes and a few intrepid bargain-hunting traders inject enough leadership momentum to rekindle hope and, who knows, maybe back toward highs, we’ll be ready.

Because we want to be friends with that trend, too.

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What is it?
It's not gold, crypto or any mainstream investment. But these mega-billionaires have bet the farm it's about to be the most valuable asset on Earth. Wall Street and the financial media have no clue what's about to happen...And if you act fast, you could earn as much as 2,524% before the year is up.
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Source: Money Morning 

The Global Car Industry Can’t “Go” Without This Metal

Whether you love him or hate him, you can’t deny the fact that Elon Musk is a consummate showman; he knows how to promote.

When he introduced Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) latest vehicle – the Model 3 – back in 2016, almost half a million customers were willing to deposit $1,000 just to secure a place in line.

That helped to kick off a massive run-up in demand for lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which power the vast majority of electric vehicles.

Now, a lot goes into making Li-ion batteries, but what isn’t commonly known is that one metal in particular is absolutely critical.

So important, in fact, that the average 60-kilowatt electric vehicle (EV) battery holds a whopping 18 pounds of the stuff.

By some estimates, total demand for this substance will more than quadruple in just the next 15 years, thanks mostly to surging EV production.

The thing is, supply is already severely challenged. Most of the world’s supply comes from one African nation with a wild history of instability and conflict.

But I’m going to show you a special investment with a low-risk business model and potential for staggering upside as demand intensifies.

The Worldwide Car Industry Is Spending Billions

That’s right – the international car industry is investing over $100 billion to develop and produce EVs. That’s just to start.

Just recently, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund committed $1 billion to Lucid Motors, an EV maker. That’s Saudi, as in Saudi Arabia – the country with about 16% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves, leader of OPEC, and 87% of budget revenue from oil.

In the next five years, no less than 40 “gigafactories” will be built. They will churn out massive amounts of Li-ion batteries.

For the most part, that’s not “anticipating” demand. These factories are built based on firm orders.

That’s where cobalt comes into the Li-ion battery story. Here’s what you need to know about cobalt and lithium-ion batteries.

Although cobalt has multiple industrial and commercial uses, the most dominant by far is in batteries, representing half of demand.

Car industry

And cobalt is a significant part of lithium-ion batteries.

Lithium cobalt oxide batteries, common to laptops and smartphones, contain roughly 60% cobalt. Lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide batteries, with about 9% cobalt, are the most appropriate type of high-load battery being used in larger storage projects.

And lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide batteries contain about 10% to 20% cobalt and are the preferred technology for larger batteries, typically used in electric vehicles.

No matter how you slice it, cobalt is a highly significant portion of the future battery market.

But here’s the crunch… more than 60% of world supply comes from the perennially war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo.

Thanks to serious political instability and concerns about child labor, many cobalt consumers are anxious to secure supply elsewhere.

Meanwhile, a grave supply crunch lies ahead as battery demand soars for electronics and storage, but especially for EVs in the near future.

global car industry

Besides Tesla and upcoming Lucid Inc. (OTCMKTS: LCDX), there’s BMW(OTCMKTS: BMWYY), Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTCMKTS: NSANY), General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), Kia Motors Corp. (KRX: 000270), Volvo (OTCMKTS: VLVLY), Volkswagen Group (OTCMKTS: VWAGY), Audi AG (OTCMKTS: AUDVF), Mercedes (OTCMKTS: DDAIF), and a host of others who’ve announced multiple EV models in just the next few years.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) happens to be one of the top cobalt users worldwide. Even just a few grams in each device adds up in a flash, so the company’s on the hunt for a direct offtake agreement from a cobalt miner.

According to the International Energy Agency, EVs worldwide will hit 125 million by 2030, up almost 4,000% from current levels.

All those new batteries to supply to EVs will require plenty of cobalt.

cobalt

You can see what the hype – then subsequent EV lineup announcement from auto manufacturers – did to the cobalt price over the last two years.

Cobalt was up 320% before correcting over the last six months. I think cobalt will find strong support at current levels and start a robust gradual climb from here.

Here’s the Best Way to Play This Energy Metal

There are no pure cobalt ETFs that I know of, though this company comes the closest.

Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. (TSXV: KBLT), which also trades in the United States “over the counter” as CBLLF, is an energy metals investment vehicle.

It owns 2,905 metric tons of physical cobalt.

It’s also acquired the world’s first-producing cobalt-nickel stream on the Ramu Nickel-Cobalt Mine, as well as a cobalt stream on Vale’s Voisey’s Bay mine, starting in 2021.

But return potential doesn’t just rest on higher cobalt prices. Cobalt 27 is looking to fuel growth through its strategy of streams and royalties.

Including the two named above, the company manages a portfolio of 12 streams and royalties, including the construction-ready Dumont Nickel-Cobalt project in Quebec, as well as other exploration projects. In addition, Cobalt 27 has an interest in mineral properties containing cobalt.

The company’s focus is on streams that provide near-term cash flow. Meanwhile, these streams and royalties allow for considerable upside with limited downside exposure.

Cobalt 27 will benefit from earnings and dividends, resource growth, and expanding production.

By holding physical cobalt and owning streams and royalties, the company avoids the risks inherent in mining, like increasing capital, operating, and environmental costs.

Car industry

Cobalt 27’s share price has been caught up in the sell-off suffered by commodities in general as the U.S. dollar recently enjoyed a relief rally and investors have continued flocking to regular stocks.

A closer look at recent cobalt price action suggests $25 may be the new support level.

global car industry

My advice it to buy a 50% position in Cobalt 27 once its share price closes above $5.75 and then the balance once it surpasses $6.75. This should help mitigate downside risk.

Remember, cobalt supply remains tight, a situation likely to persist through 2021 at least. The fundamentals remain compelling as both China and the United States consider cobalt a strategic metal.

As EVs gain market share, cobalt will gain, and Cobalt 27 should offer plenty of leverage.

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Source: Money Morning 

8 ‘Greenlight’ Stocks to Buy in a Sea of Red

Looking for viable stocks to buy at this juncture seems like a herculean task. The markets never looked convincing in October and it dubiously proved that point midweek. The Dow Jones shed 608 points exactly a week before Halloween, sending shivers down Wall Street. More problematic, at least for the nearer-term, is that the situation is likely to worsen.

Inarguably, the biggest concern is our ongoing trade war with China. Neither side obviously wants to concede, which means we’ll play hardball. Eventually, we’ll win out, but the victory will not come cheap. The other headwind impacting those seeking stocks to invest in is our political landscape. Politics is never conciliatory. However, I’ve never seen the country so divided. Anybody who has any amount of public clout has voiced their opinions to sway the electorate.

Based on everything that we’re seeing, the House will go to the Democrats. President Trump will, therefore,e face a contested government, which means nothing will get done. That might appease one side of the political spectrum, but it clouds deciphering which stocks to buy. Still, while the markets are swimming in red ink, a few viable publicly-traded companies exist. Primarily, the best “greenlight” stocks to invest in are levered toward consumer staples. That’s not surprising, considering that their underlying industry enjoys relatively consistent demand.

But other sectors have also outperformed in October, providing surprisingly healthy options for investors. Here are eight greenlight stocks to buy in a sea of red.

Hormel Foods (HRL)

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL) is simply one of the most monstrous stocks to buy this October. Since the start of the month, HRL stock was up nearly 7% (well, 6.66% to be exact … spooky!). While those numbers wouldn’t ordinarily raise eyebrows, consider that the Dow Jones has dropped almost 8% over the same timeframe. The venerable index is down for the year, while HRL stock has gained 17%.

Strangely, Hormel is getting a lifeline while so many other previous stocks to buy are heading towards the butcher. Revenues sharply declined last year, and HRL stock took serious damage. However, shares are on the upswing as management is back to robust growth.

Plus, Hormel has an opportunity to advantage the multi-billion dollar alternative-meat market. Hormel’s subsidiaries are exploring this sector, which should lift HRL stock long-term.

Source: Shutterstock

Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) doesn’t quite match Hormel Foods’ performance. Year-to-date, TSN stock is down nearly 23%, which hardly inspires confidence for those looking for stocks to invest in. That said, Tyson Foods has enjoyed a surprisingly robust October. For the month, TSN stock is up over 3%. Again, this wouldn’t generate headlines except for the fact that the broader markets are in full meltdown mode. As such, TSN is a great place to park your money in this storm, especially considering its 1.94% dividend yield.

Fundamentally, the company is also coming around. Like other food companies, Tyson experienced a disjointed sales performance in recent years. However, this year, revenue is on pace to exceed 2016 and 2017 results.

Not only that, investors will likely appreciate TSN stock for the underlying company’s consistent demand. Irrespective of where the economy heads, people need to eat. When you look at the volatility in most investment sectors, Tyson Foods simply makes sense.

Hershey (HSY)

With Halloween coming up, Hershey (NYSE:HSY) seems like an appropriate choice among greenlight stocks to buy. After all, both kids and adults love Hershey’s iconic chocolates. Plus, the company levers several popular and delectable brands. Certainly, the markets are buying into the story. While the first half of this year was more than forgettable, the story changed dramatically in the second. Since the beginning of July, HSY stock has gained over 17%.

Even more impressive, the chocolatier and candy-maker increased momentum in October. Since the beginning of this month, HSY stock is up nearly 6%.

Fundamentally, I like Hershey heading into its third-quarter earnings report. The company has enjoyed three years of consecutive revenue growth, and it’s on pace for a fourth. In addition, stable free cash flow bolsters the case for HSY stock.

Oh yeah, let’s not forget about its 2.8% dividend yield. At a time when the broader markets are tanking, passive income is at a premium.

Philip Morris International (PM)

Based on the bigger picture, you’d think that Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) has no business belonging on a list of stocks to invest in. Traditional cigarette sales are down sharply as more Americans are butting out. More importantly, the under-18 crowd isn’t picking up on the habit.

Indeed, PM stock started falling in the second half of 2017. Unfortunately for shareholders, the decline hasn’t ended. On a YTD basis, Philip Morris shares are down almost 15%.

But that statistic is deceptive because PM stock found new life since the end of August, with shares up 17%. And in October, the tobacco firm is on the verge of double-digit territory.

One of the things I like about PM stock is the underlying company’s IQOS product. IQOS, which is a type of vaporizer, plays directly into the e-cigarette craze. The advantage that Philip Morris levers is product knowledge. Not all vaporizers accurately replicate traditional smoking, which should benefit the top and bottom lines.

Finally, PM stock pays out a 5.1% dividend yield, which you definitely can’t ignore.

Verizon Communications (VZ)

With Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) recently putting up a convincing Q3 earnings beat, this is an easy one to put on your list of stocks to invest in. After wildly choppy trading over the past few years, VZ stock is finally on the right track. Moreover, the telco giant has completely moved against the grain in October. VZ stock is up over 8% for the month, while for the second half, shares have registered nearly 17%.

Naturally, many investors are gun shy about jumping onboard a company that is near all-time highs. However, VZ stock is the real deal. The telco firm enjoyed impressive wireless-subscription growth, while its potential for 5G is a gamechanger. The new wireless network offers multiple synergies, and Verizon was the first to deliver commercial 5G services.

Among the companies mentioned here, VZ stock provides a very generous dividend yield at 4.2%. Considering the broader selloff, Verizon provides much-needed stability and protection.

Source: Shutterstock

Superior Drilling Products (SDPI)

One of the biggest victims of the market selloff is the oil and energy sector. With global indices freefalling,­ Wall Street fears that demand for oil products will deflate. However, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the U.S. has placed sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which comes into effect Nov. 4. That potentially boosts the contrarian case, not only for oil stocks, but for equipment companies, like Superior Drilling Products (NYSEAMERICAN:SDPI).

While energy firms have felt the heat, October has been (mostly) kind to SDPI stock. Despite today’s 15% decline, SDPI shares are up more than 10%. Of course, with that kind of performance, you want to be careful about going in too deeply. Still, SDPI stock has sound fundamentals. Primarily, the company has generated strong revenue growth. SDPI is on pace for an annual profit which hasn’t happened since at least 2014.

Should the supply-demand situation improve for the energy market, SDPI stock is primed for additional growth.

Source: Shutterstock

Iamgold (IAG)

When equities are deflating, the rule of thumb is to look at gold. So far, the precious metals sector has lived up to its reputation. Gold prices are up about 3% for October, driving up several mining companies.

However, one miner that hasn’t enjoyed much of a sentiment lift is Iamgold (NYSE:IAG). This month, IAG stock is up nearly 2%. That’s not bad in and of itself, considering the panic-selling on the Street. That said, Iamgold’s competitors have seen robust double-digit growth.

Due to the fact that the broader markets continue to flash all kinds of ugly, I believe Iamgold will eventually rise along with its peers. Fundamentally, IAG stock levers impressive stats. It’s one of the few gold companies that have registered consecutive years of growth. Moreover, Iamgold’s cash flow has stabilized relative to earlier years’ dysfunctionality.

Rosetta Stone (RST)

Back in July, I pegged Rosetta Stone (NYSE:RST) as one of the long-term stocks to buy. I felt that the company offered a compelling service, which is to get people up-to-speed on learning a foreign language. While we’re incredibly blessed to live in the world’s top superpower, and that English is the international language, that status isn’t likely to hold indefinitely.

For one thing, changing demographics have pushed Chinese as the world’s most spoken language. In theory, this and other factors should boost RST stock.

What I didn’t expect was for Rosetta Stone to hold its own during the October selloff. Yes, RST stock did experience volatility when the major indices tanked. However, RST is back to level ground, which gives me confidence in the company’s “bigger picture” potential.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto is long gold bullion.

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Chipotle Stock Could Bounce On Strong Q3 Numbers

Fast-casual food chain Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) will report third-quarter numbers after the bell on Thursday, and I think those numbers will be good enough to spark a bounce-back rally in recently beaten up Chipotle stock.

The story here is pretty simple. After the recent correction, CMG is finally entering reasonably valued territory. Meanwhile, the stock is down more than 10% since the last earnings report. That combination of recent declines and reasonable valuation imply that if third-quarter numbers are strong, Chipotle stock could stage a meaningful rally.

I think that is exactly what will happen. The restaurant backdrop is exceedingly favorable right now. Macro research firms point to red-hot restaurant sales, while fast-casual peers have mostly reported strong third-quarter numbers recently. Also, it appears that Chipotle’s new initiatives with menu innovations and delivery are progressing nicely.

All in all, CMG looks attractive ahead of the third-quarter print. You have a really beaten up stock with a reasonable valuation heading into a report that should be pretty good. Put that all together and you could get a nice post-earnings rally in Chipotle stock.

Third Quarter CMG Numbers Should Be Good

There is a good chance that Chipotle reports above-consensus third-quarter numbers that impress investors. Why? Two major reasons. One, the whole restaurant industry is on fire right now. Two, Chipotle’s strategic menu innovation and delivery initiatives are doing well.

With respect to the first reason, there is little doubt out there about the strength of the U.S. restaurant industry at the present moment. According to research firm TDn2K, the restaurant industry saw its biggest sales and traffic growth in three years during the third quarter. Meanwhile, retail sales at food services and drinking places were up a robust 8.8% year-over-year during the past three months.

This strong macro data is corroborated by what has been a string of positive earnings reports from fast-casual chains. Most of those chains that have reported third-quarter numbers so far have reported strong double-beat-and-raise quarters, headlined by McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Dunkin’ (NYSE:DNKN) and Darden (NYSE:DRI).

Broadly speaking, then, the whole restaurant industry has beenperforming extremely well. It is reasonable to assume that this is a rising tide that lifted all boats, Chipotle included, especially considering it has been largely (but not entirely) out of the spotlight recently when it comes to health scares.

Moreover, CMG’s strategic initiatives in menu innovation and delivery were smart moves, and I have faith those initiatives continued to yield material benefits this past quarter. Menu innovations keep customers interested and attract new customers, and Chipotle kept up the menu innovations in the quarter (earlier in the quarter, they were testing bacon and nachos). On the delivery front, Chipotle stock has deepened its partnership with Postmates, and that is a good thing as it extends reach.

If the report is as good as these developments suggest, you could get a nice post-earnings pop in Chipotle stock.

Chipotle Stock Could Pop

Chipotle stock could pop on strong third quarter numbers for two reasons. The valuation has depressed into reasonable territory, and the stock has been beaten up since the last earnings report, implying low buy-side expectations.

On the valuation front, the simple truth about Chipotle stock is that at $250, it was way undervalued, and at $500, it was way overvalued. This is a company which is on a steady, but not explosive, sales recovery trajectory.

Meanwhile, margins will continue to be pressured by lower unit performance, higher wages and new initiatives spend. Thus, in the big picture, the Chipotle profit recovery is happening, but not quickly. Under those assumptions, this is a company which I think can do about $30 in EPS in five years. Throw a McDonald’s-level 20X forward multiple on that, and discount back by 10% per year. You arrive at a 2018 price target of $450.

Thus, at $250, Chipotle stock was undervalued. At $500, it was overvalued. Now, at $420, it is reasonably valued.

Meanwhile, Chipotle stock is down more than 10% since the last earnings report, and more than 20% off recent highs. That means buy-side expectations for Q3 are low. With expectations low and the valuation now in reasonable territory, Chipotle stock is positioned for a nice rally in the event Q3 numbers are strong.

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic on Chipotle stock ahead of the Q3 print. You have a beaten up stock with a reasonable valuation heading into a Q3 print which could be quite good. That set-up implies that in the event of good numbers, Chipotle stock could stage a healthy rally.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long CMG and MCD. 

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Keep Your Eyes on This Potential IPO

If you ask some of the analysts on Wall Street what company is winning the race to build a successful autonomous vehicle, you will usually get an answer that focuses on a technology company. Names like Waymo, the autonomous vehicle division of Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG) or Wall Street darling Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA).

Yet to me, the race is far from over. Among the many self-driving projects under way by technology companies, start-ups and the traditional automakers, none have launched fully as public services. This means assessing who is ‘ahead’ in developing self-driving cars is next to impossible.

Or as GM president Dan Ammann said recently to the Financial Times, “We see this as the race to the starting line.” In other words, the real race hasn’t even started.

It’s a Crowded Field

That is a correct assessment since nearly every major global automaker is working on autonomous vehicles. That is evident by looking at the automotive calendar over the next five years that is filled with prospective launch dates for self-driving vehicles.

GM has announced it plans to launch a service in 2019, while Toyota wants to have robo-taxis ready by the Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020. Ford plans a service by 2021 and Renault by 2022. Volvo pledges that a third of its cars sold will contain autonomous technology by 2025. Waymo, which has racked up more than 9 million test miles — far more than any other company in the sector — has already begun a trial service for potential customers.

The one trait most common in these efforts is that it requires immense amounts of cash. That has led to a host of partnerships. Here are just a few of them…

The aforementioned Waymo, has partnered with Fiat Chrysler. Ford is partnering with a start-up in Pittsburgh named Argo AI, another start-up company, Aurora, founded by former Waymo director Chris Urmson, is working with Volkswagen, Hyundai and the Chinese electric vehicle firm Byton. Other carmakers have chosen to develop their own technologies… these companies include Toyota, RenaultNissan, Daimler and Tesla.

But even the guys going alone are forging some partnerships. In early October, Toyota announced a deal with the Japanese tech giant Softbank to create a range of services using self-driving vehicles. These services range from food and goods delivery to medical check-ups, as the Japanese carmaker looks to deepen its links with technology groups to adapt to the era of autonomous driving.

This partnership will combine Toyota’s self-driving technology with SoftBank’s platform for the internet of things. The $17 million joint venture, called Monet Technologies, will provide mobility services and envisions using autonomous vehicles developed by Toyota.
GM Is Cruising

General Motors (NYSE: GM) seems to have bolstered its claim to be the leading carmaker developing self-driving systems after Hondainvested $750 million into its Cruise division, with the promise of a total of $2.75 billion over 12 years.

The reason I say that is that Honda had spent two years talking to Waymo and checking out the technology that most on Wall Street seem to think will be the winner in the space. And as recently as April, the deal looked to be done. Yet, Honda walked away from Waymo and went with GM’s Cruise, which strikes me as very significant.

Honda’s tie-up with Cruise brings three very important things to the company. The first is validation for the company’s technology from another automaker. The second is that during the public announcement, GM CEO Mary Barra praised Honda’s “geographic reach”. That told me that GM’s Cruise plans to leverage its new shareholder’s international presence to also launch in markets far away from Detroit, such as Japan.

Finally, and perhaps most important is money. After Honda invests the entire $2.75 billion, GM will have $9 billion to scale up its autonomous vehicle effort without further using GM’s funds.

This agreement with Honda followed on the heels of SoftBank’s $2.25 billion injection into Cruise in May. This funding will be split into two parts, with $900 million provided at the closing of the transaction. The remaining $1.35 billion will be injected once the autonomous cars are ready for commercial deployment.

Softbank was impressed with the progress Cruise has made. At the time the deal was announced, Michael Ronen, managing partner at SoftBank Investment Advisers, said GM Cruise’s combination of developing its own software and hardware gave the company a “unique competitive advantage”.

How to Play It

With such a crowded field and so many possible winners, you may be wondering how best to play this.

At the moment, I would opt to go where both Softbank and Honda have gone – with GM and its Cruise subsidiary. Honda’s investment values Cruise at $14.6 billion, up from $11.5 billion when SoftBank made its initial wager earlier this year. Cruise’s worth has been on the rise since GM acquired the company about two years ago for $581 million in cash. Adding in bonuses and other payments to key employees, the deal was said to have cost the company closer to $1 billion.

Of course, you can’t buy Cruise yet. But I believe GM will eventually spin off Cruise in order to realize its value for GM shareholders. Cruise is already worth about a third of GM’s market capitalization and it will climb even higher.

Earlier this year, GM did meet with investment bankers to look at long-term future options, such as issuing a tracking stock to list shares in Cruise or to eventually sell stock to the public. No decision was made at the time as GM was still evaluating its future options. But a spinoff of Cruise may become reality within a year or two. That makes GM a buy.

 

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7 Stocks Warren Buffett Can’t Stop Buying

Source: Shutterstock

Sometimes identifying the best stocks to buy can be difficult, but you could do a lot worse than checking out the stocks selected by one of the world’s savviest hedge fund managers — Warren Buffett.

Buffett’s stock picks are a popular source for investors, and for good reason. The billionaire Buffett is many things: He’s among the world’s most successful fund managers, a legendary philanthropist and owns more than 60 companies.

Buffett’s formidable stock-picking ability has given him the nickname “the Oracle of Omaha” and a fortune of more than $87 billion. And now we can track the latest trades of his $191 billion Berkshire Hathaway fund.

Just-released SEC forms reveal a valuable glimpse into stocks Buffett likes (and the stocks Buffett doesn’t like). These are the stocks he poured money into in the second quarter.

Here I also include TipRanks’ stock insights from Wall Street’s best-performing analysts. Does the Street sentiment match Buffett’s latest stock picks — or is he going rogue with his investing decisions? Let’s take a closer look at the top Warren Buffett stock picks now:

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on Aug. 17, 2018. It has been updated to reflect changes in the market.

Apple (AAPL)

aapl stock

Source: Shutterstock

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is now by far and away Buffett’s largest investment. After missing the tech sector rally (Buffett recently admitted that he “blew it” by not investing in Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) earlier), the Oracle of Omaha has been busy plowing money into AAPL.

Following a 5% increase of AAPL shares, Buffett now holds over $55 billion in AAPL stock. This is about 24% of the total portfolio. Interestingly, it also means Buffett now owns almost 5% of Apple stock.

“I clearly like Apple. We buy them to hold,” Buffett told CNBC in May. “We bought about 5 percent of the company. I’d love to own 100 percent of it … We like very much the economics of their activities. We like very much the management and the way they think.”

And the stock also has the Street’s seal of approval. “Despite Apple achieving the $1 trillion milestone last week, we continue to believe Apple remains one of the most underappreciated stocks in the world with a valuation that remains depressed (13.7x our CY:19 EPS estimate, ex-cash)” cheers top Monness analyst Brian White (Profile & Recommendations).

He added: “Now, Apple is heading into the seasonally strongest time of the year with a new iPhone cycle on the horizon.” Indeed, White’s $275 price target indicates big upside potential of 24%.

In total, however, the stock has a “moderate buy” analyst consensus rating. This is with a $214 price target. See what other Top Analysts are saying about AAPL.

US Bancorp (USB)

Source: Shutterstock

Minneapolis based U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is the fifth largest U.S. bank — and one of the top 10 holdings in the Berkshire portfolio. Following the purchase of almost 10 million USB shares in Q2, Buffett’s USB stake now totals $5.3 billion.

However, Oppenheimer’s Chris Kotowski (Profile & Recommendations) is less convinced. Interestingly, given Buffett’s preference for value stocks, it’s the valuation this top analyst takes issue with. He writes: “USB is one of the “super banks” of the banking industry, and while there is a lot to like about the stock, we think the valuation already embeds it.”

As a result, Kotowski has a “hold” rating on the stock, and tells investors to look elsewhere. “USB is not cheap on either a P/E or price/TBV basis versus peers; given the plethora of cheaper, high-quality franchises trading at a fraction of USB’s TBV multiple, we think there is more upside potential elsewhere in the sector.”

The overall Street perspective also leaves a lot to be desired. In the last three months, the stock has received four hold ratings. This is versus only two more bullish Buy calls. Meanwhile, the average price target stands at $57 (8% upside potential). See what other Top Analysts are saying about USB.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK)

Source: Shutterstock

Buffett has now ramped up his holding of this financial stock by 4% to $3.2 billion. This makes Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK) the tenth-biggest stock in Berkshire’s portfolio. Although Buffett has held BK since 2010, he began to pour money into the stock in 2017 with two 50% increases. Since then, it has been a constant build up.

Analysts, on the other hand, are evenly divided between Hold and Buy. One five-star analyst in the bull camp is Vining Sparks Marty Mosby (Profile & Recommendations). He sees a compelling investment opportunity right now. “BK currently trades at a 13x price-to-earnings multiple, and we believe its expected earnings per share growth could reduce its multiple down to below 12x. We believe this valuation is too low for a bank currently producing 25% return- on-tangible common equity.”

He concludes, “As a result of earnings growth, multiple expansion, and a 2.1% dividend yield, we are targeting over 15% total shareholder return over the next 12 months.” See what other Top Analysts are saying about BK.

Delta Airlines (DAL)

delta stock

Source: via Delta

At the end of 2016, Buffett shocked the market with huge investments in four key airline stocks. Only a few years ago, Buffett called the sector a “death trap for investors.” However, with the industry fast consolidating, he decided to change his tune.

Buffett’s partner, Charlie Munger, explains “It (the railroad industry) was a terrible business for 80 years … but they finally got down to four big railroads, and it was a better business. And something similar is happening in the airline business.”

And one of the four stocks to buy that he particularly likes is Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL). A further $559 million investment in Q2 means Buffett now holds over 63 million DAL shares. This equates to a whopping $3.15 billion investment.

Luckily, Imperial Capital’s Michael Derchin (Profile & Recommendations) expects pricing power in key domestic hubs, improving business yields, and strong international results to boost earnings this year and next. His $68 price target indicates 25% upside potential.

But Stifel Nicolaus’ Joseph DeNardi (Profile & Recommendations) is by far the stock’s biggest supporter. With a $95 price target, DeNardi sees prices spiking a whopping 72%. This top analyst has just calculated that DAL made at least $800 million from frequent flyer programs just in 1H18.

Overall, DAL, a “strong buy” stock, has received eight buy ratings versus just a single “hold” rating. See what other Top Analysts are saying about DAL.

Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Texas-based Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is the world’s largest low-cost airline carrier. After initiating his $2.1 billion position in LUV, Buffett continued to up the stock in 2017. In Q1, Buffett ramped up the position by 10% with the purchase of 4.45 million more shares. Now the fund has a huge $3.3 billion LUV stake.

LUV shares are currently rebounding after a tricky second quarter. Shares plunged in April following a fatal accident caused by an exploding engine. The accident — the first in the company’s 47-year-old history — cost LUV over $100 million in revenue.

However: “We have recovered at this point,” CEO Gary Kelly told Bloomberg recently. “We have been enjoying very strong close-in demand and close-in revenue for a number of weeks.”

This chimes with Cowen & Co’s Helane Becker (Profile & Recommendations) analysis. “Southwest will have a lingering impact from the discounting and a sub-optimal schedule, but the third quarter appears to be the inflection point as management does not anticipate continued issues into the fourth quarter.”

She keeps her “buy” rating on this “strong buy” stock with a $66 price target (11% upside potential). See what other Top Analysts are saying about LUV.

General Motors (GM)

gm stock

Source: Shutterstock

Buffett is also a long-standing supporter of top dividend stock General Motors (NYSE:GM). After upping Berkshire’s GM position by 2% in Q2, the fund now holds 51 million GM shares valued at $1.6 billion.

While Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been hogging most of the self-driving spotlight, GM is busy making its own mark in this fast-growing space. SoftBank Vision fund recently announced a huge $2.25 billion stake in GM’s self-driving Cruise unit.

Top RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak (Profile & Recommendations) sees a promising long-term opportunity. This is even though GM has now lowered its 2018 outlook.

He writes “It remains to be seen whether GM can win on the robo-taxi opportunity, but it has a seat at the table. And it’s early enough in the story that we still see a lot of potential for that narrative to take hold and for growth/tech investors to look to GM, increasing demand for the shares and potentially the multiple.”

Right now Spak has a $49 price target on the stock (54% upside). Overall analysts have a “strong buy” consensus on GM. The average analyst price target of $52 suggests shares can climb 63% from current levels. See what other Top Analysts are saying about GM.

Teva (TEVA)

Buffett surprised the market with a big bet on flailing pharma giant Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE:TEVA) back in Q417. He gobbled up 19 million shares in TEVA, worth about $358 million. Since then, Buffett hasn’t stopped buying.

He picked up a further 21.6 million shares in Q1. And now for Q2 we see another 6% boost to his position (with 61 million shares). This takes his total bet on TEVA to a staggering $1.05 billion.

There’s no doubt this is a risky move. Out of 14 recent analyst ratings, only three are buys. This is versus 10 buy ratings and one sell rating. Oppenheimer analyst Christopher Liu (Profile & Recommendations) is sitting this one out. He has a “hold” rating on the stock due to “base business headwinds.”

Liu explains, “We no longer see a clear path for TEVA to return to growth in a timely manner, and continued pricing pressure in US generics makes us less optimistic its US generic business will meet/ exceed Street expectations in FY2018.”

He is worried that the growth story will be hampered by an ongoing focus on cost cutting/divestments. This is required to ensure it meets its massive $28 billion debt obligations. However, there’s no doubt that Buffett sees the cut-priced pharma as a longer-term rebound stock. See what other Top Analysts are saying about TEVA.

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Buffett could see this new asset run 2,524% in 2018. And he's not the only one... Mark Cuban says "it's the most exciting thing I've ever seen." Mark Zuckerberg threw down $19 billion to get a piece... Bill Gates wagered $26 billion trying to control it...
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It's not gold, crypto or any mainstream investment. But these mega-billionaires have bet the farm it's about to be the most valuable asset on Earth. Wall Street and the financial media have no clue what's about to happen...And if you act fast, you could earn as much as 2,524% before the year is up.
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Source: Investor Place 

5 Family-Owned Stocks to Buy

Source: Shutterstock

Historically, family-owned stocks have outperformed the market. And it makes some sense why that’s the case — and why those controlled companies might be stocks to buy.

Family-owned companies generally have direct board oversight from family members. They’re less likely to take unwise risks, and by definition they’re more likely to have skin in the game. If an independent CEO is being compensated for share price gains, a major merger might seem a worthy gamble. If three of the board members are risking their family’s legacy on that deal, however, it might look very different.

As Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) pointed out last year, family-owned companies outperform the market by a whopping 400 bps annually. The outperformance comes across sectors and company sizes. These 5 companies, too, represent a cross-section of the market. But all 5 look like stocks to buy.

Brown-Forman (BF.A) (BF.B)

Distiller Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.A,BF.B) is best known for its Jack Daniel’s whiskey. But like other liquor plays like Diageo (NYSE:DEO), BF stock has been an attractive investment for some time now. The company has raised its dividend for 34 consecutive years. And after a few years of relatively stagnant growth, Brown-Forman has shown much stronger performance of late.

New offerings like Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey are driving sales. A move to premium whiskey — including Gentleman Jack and Woodford Reserve — has been a winner as well. Revenue growth has accelerated to 6% in fiscal 2018 (on a constant-currency basis) and should rise 4%+ this year, with the company projecting 11-18% EPS growth.

Meanwhile, BF.A stock has become much cheaper in the market selloff of late, currently trading at a 10-month low. There are some near-term concerns about tariffs, which led FY19 EPS guidance to be pulled down. But those concerns should fade, and long-term investors should ride out any volatility by picking up Brown-Forman on the dip.

Adams Resources & Energy (AE)

self-driving truck

Source: Wikipedia

Adams Resources & Energy (NYSE:AE) admittedly is a bit of a weird stock. The company’s primary Marketing business moves crude oil from the wellhead to end users, while a smaller transportation business trucks petrochemicals and other products through Texas and beyond.

The controlling Adams family has a bigger asset: the NFL’s Tennessee Titans (formerly the Houston Oilers). And it’s looked at times like Adams Resources has been forgotten. AE has a rising amount of cash — nearly $30 per share, against a current price of $41. Yet the dividend has been held steady, leaving that cash relatively dormant.

Still, there’s an intriguing bull case here, one reason I own the stock. Both the cash and a book value of $36 provide significant downside protection. A rebound in shale oil production and concerns about pipeline capacity could open new business for Adams. The company did acquire a trucking operation recently, perhaps signaling more aggressive capital allocation going forward. And a sale could be in the works at some point to a larger company. AE will require patience — but I still believe at some point that patience will pay off.

Nordstrom (JWN)

Source: Shutterstock

Even as a retail bear, I’m intrigued by Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN). The high-end retailer seems to have the most differentiated model in the department store space. It’s a brand notably different from that of a JCPenney (NYSE:JCP) or even a Macy’s (NYSE:M). As InvestorPlace’s Dana Blankenhorn pointed out in August, the company is aggressively reinventing itself as customers dress down — and succeeding in the process.

JWN is more expensive than those peers, but the premium is deserved. And the founding Nordstrom family remains on top of the story. It even tried to take JWN private at $50 — an offer the board refused.

With the stock now at $60, any weakness could see the family make another move, perhaps protecting the downside. In the meantime, investors own a well-run high-end business with a 2.4% dividend yield. That’s an attractive combination — particularly for retail bulls.

John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS)

There are few, if any, public companies with tighter family control than nut processor and manufacturer John B. Sanfilippo & Sons (NASDAQ:JBSS). The founding family owns 89% of the non-traded Class A shares, giving it firm control from a voting standpoint. Members of the Sanfilippo family — including in-laws — comprise the majority of the board and upper management.

It might seem like there’s a risk that nepotism simply goes wild, but it’s actually been a hugely successful strategy for JBSS shareholders. The stock has moved from the single-digits as recently as the beginning of 2012 to a current price just under $70. Consistent special dividends mean that many long-time shareholders now own the stock for free — or even at a negative cost basis.

And returns should continue. The big gains have been driven by a shift toward manufacturing (the company owns the Fisher brand) instead of simply being a middleman in an industry with volatile pricing. That shift still has to play out. Newer brands like Orchard Valley Harvest capitalize on the “good for you” trend. JBSS trades at a discount to most snack companies — but its growth is better. A 14% pullback from August highs sets up a nice entry point as well.

Clearly, this is a management team worth betting on. When it comes to family-owned stocks, few have done it better than the Sanfilippos over the past few years.

Family-Owned Stocks to Buy: Estee Lauder (EL)

Source: Shutterstock

Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL) is one of the premier brands in the world. And like BF.A and BF.B, the market sell-off has moved it to an attractive, if still seemingly expensive, price.

EL briefly touched a 2018 low during this week’s market volatility, and still sits 19% below June highs. At 24x+ forward earnings, the valuation still looks high. But this is a company still steadily growing earnings double-digits, with room for expansion in developing markets (notably Asia) and market share gains in the U.S. and the U.K.

As a result, EL stock — like Estee Lauder cosmetics — is a classic case of paying up for quality. It’s not likely to be a decision that investors regret.

As of this writing, Vince Martin is long shares of Adams Resources & Energy. He has no positions in any other securities mentioned.

Buffett just went all-in on THIS new asset. Will you?
Buffett could see this new asset run 2,524% in 2018. And he's not the only one... Mark Cuban says "it's the most exciting thing I've ever seen." Mark Zuckerberg threw down $19 billion to get a piece... Bill Gates wagered $26 billion trying to control it...
What is it?
It's not gold, crypto or any mainstream investment. But these mega-billionaires have bet the farm it's about to be the most valuable asset on Earth. Wall Street and the financial media have no clue what's about to happen...And if you act fast, you could earn as much as 2,524% before the year is up.
Click here to find out what it is.