5 Top Warren Buffett Stock Picks

Source: Shutterstock

Sometimes identifying the best stocks to buy can be difficult, but you could do a lot worse than checking out the stocks selected by one of the world’s savviest hedge fund managers: Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett stock picks are a popular source for an investors, and for good reason.

Billionaire Buffett is many things: one of the world’s most successful fund managers, legendary philanthropist and owner of over 60 companies. His formidable stock picking ability has given him the nickname ‘the Oracle of Omaha’ and a fortune of over $87 billion. “He beats everybody all the time when it comes to picking stocks” writes Bloomberg’s Nir Kaissar. Indeed, the per-share market value of Berkshire has returned an incredible 20.9% annually from October 1964 through 2017.

And now we can track the latest trades of his $191 billion Berkshire Hathaway fund. Just-released SEC forms reveal a valuable glimpse into which stocks Buffett likes, and which he doesn’t.

Bear in mind that these are the trades the fund made in Q4 rather than the current quarter — so it is possible that the positions have changed since the filing date.

Here I also include TipRanks’ stock insights from Wall Street’s best-performing analysts. Does the Street sentiment match Buffett’s latest stock picks — or is he going rogue with his investing decisions? We can check the overall analyst consensus as well as analysts’ average target price. This is a crucial indicator of how far the Street sees a stock moving over the coming months.

Let’s take a closer look at the top Warren Buffett stock picks now:

Warren Buffett Stock Picks #1: Apple (AAPL)

Source: Apple

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares spiked higher on the news that this is now Buffett’s largest investment. Following a 23% increase of AAPL shares, Buffett now holds $28 billion in AAPL stock. This is about 14.6% of the total portfolio.

According to Time, Buffett explained that:

“Apple strikes me as having quite a sticky product and an enormously useful product to people that use it, not that I do.”

Indeed, the facts bear this out with Morgan Stanley pegging the iPhone’s retention rate at 92% vs just 77% for Samsung phones.

Guggenheim’s Rob Cihra echoes Buffett’s bullish Apple stance. He has a $215 price target on AAPL (21% upside potential). After dissecting the stats, this top analyst sees ‘Other Products’ revenue hitting $22 billion in 2019.

For Cihra:

“Apple has never been about going after a whole market’s unit share but rather peeling off the high-value tops for max revenue and profit share. It can then compound that by selling MORE into its ‘niche’ installed-base of loyal, high-value customers.”

Overall analysts are cautiously optimistic on AAPL right now. The stock has a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating with 17 buy ratings and 13 hold ratings. With an average price target of $193, the Street is predicting 8% upside for AAPL from current prices.

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: BNY Mellon (BK)

Source: Shutterstock

Buffett has now ramped up his holding of this financial stock by 21% to $3.275 billion. This makes Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK) the 10th biggest stock in Berkshire’s portfolio. Although Buffett has held BK since 2010, he began to pour money into the stock in 2017 with two 50% increases.

From a Street perspective, analysts are divided on BK’s outlook. We can see that BK has a Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating with This includes a recent stock upgrade (from Morgan Stanley) and a downgrade (JP Morgan).

Somewhere in the middle we have one of TipRanks’ Top 10 analysts, Vining Sparks’ Marty Mosby. He maintains his Hold rating on BK with a $60 price target (3.5% upside potential). This is slightly under the average analyst price target of $61.39.

He sees growth ahead but adds a note of caution:

“Looking into 2018E, we believe that BK is still positioned to generate another year of double-digit growth in earnings per share, as its tax rate is reduced and share count continues to be managed lower; however, we believe most of this upcoming benefit is currently priced into BK’s current valuation.”

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Teva (TEVA)

Buffett surprised the market with a big bet on flailing pharma giant Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:TEVA). He snapped up 19 million shares in TEVA, worth about $358 million. This is the only new position initiated by Buffett in Q4. On the news Teva shares climbed over 10%.

But this bump turned out to be short-lived. Shares fell after the Oracle of Omaha revealed that he has no idea why the fund bought Teva. It turns out that one of his investment deputies made the purchase. This isn’t so surprising. Teva is currently one of the most-shorted stocks on the market and has just begun a restructuring program to deal with its massive $35 billion debt burden.

However, given that shares are trading at just $19 vs the 5-year peak of over $70, perhaps this will be a bargain buy. And as Buffett famously says: When others are fearful, be greedy.

Indeed, five-star Mizuho analyst Irina Rivkind Koffler calls the stock a Buy. She sees the stock leaping by more than 10% to $23 in the coming months and says:

“We expect slow but gradual appreciation in TEVA shares. While the 2018 outlook introduced on the 4Q:17 call came in below expectations, we believe there is downside protection, and even longer-term upside to the stock.”

Overall, TipRanks shows TEVA has a Hold consensus rating from top analysts. These analysts have an average price target on Teva of $21- 8% upside from the current share price.

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: US Bancorp (USB)

Source: Shutterstock

Minneapolis based U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is the fifth largest US bank — and one of the top 10 holdings in the Berkshire portfolio. Following the purchase of almost 2 million USB shares in Q4, Buffett’s USB stake now totals $4.66 billion.

The bank has just announced a fine of $613 million for ‘willful’ anti-money laundering (AML) shortcomings from 2009-2014. “We regret and have accepted responsibility for the past deficiencies in our AML program,” said CEO Andy Cecere on Feb. 15. “Our culture of ethics and integrity demands that we do better.”

For five-star RBC Capital analyst Gerard Cassidy this $613 million resolution is ‘good news’. He says:

“USB has made significant investments to improve its risk controls in the intervening years, and we believe that today’s resolution will allow USB to move past this issue…[Ultimately] US Bancorp has demonstrated, through the compound annual growth rate of shareholders’ return over the last 10 to 20 years, to be consistently one of the best-performing banks in the US.”

He has a buy rating and $61 price target on USB (10% upside potential). Note that this analyst is currently the no.1 analyst on TipRanks for his precise stock picking ability.

In contrast, the Street is taking a backseat on USB right now. The stock has a Hold consensus rating while its average analyst price target of $59.95 indicates just over 7% upside potential.

Warren Buffett Stock Picks: Monsanto (MON)

Source: Shutterstock

Last but not least we have biotech giant Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) — one of the world’s top suppliers of farm pesticides and seeds. Throughout 2017, Buffett made a number of bullish MON trades. Starting in Q4 2016 he initiated a position — which he then increased in both Q3 and Q4. Now the fund holds 11,708,747 MON shares worth close to $1.37 billion.

German drugs and pesticide group Bayer AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:BAYRY) is planning a massive $66 billion takeover of Monsanto. The deal was supposed to go through in 2017, but it has been delayed by an antitrust review from the European Commission (EC). The EC will now deliver their verdict on or before April 5.

Bayer CEO Werner Baumann said on Feb 28:

“We see ourselves on a good path for the regulatory approvals that are still outstanding, In Europe, as far as the process goes, we are further along than in the USA, but in the USA we will certainly also make progress in the coming weeks.’’

Baumann also revealed that the company is planning to sell its entire veg-seed business to secure regulatory approval.

However, the Street is staying on the sidelines right now. With a “Hold” analyst consensus rating, analysts are predicting just 4.3% upside from the current share price.

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Source: Investor Place 

2 Stocks Winning the Cable Cutting Wars

The media wars have heated up, all thanks to a British company called Sky PLC (OTC: SKYAY). The company has three American suitors – Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA)Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) and Twenty-First Century Fox (Nasdaq: FOX) – all vying to tie the knot with Sky.

It seemed straightforward enough… as Disney’s $66 billion offer for some of Fox’s assets that would include 39% of Sky, allowing Disney to expand its international presence. Separately, Fox is trying to buy the 61% of Sky that it does not own with an offer worth in excess of $16 billion. So eventually, it was thought, Disney would own all of Sky.

But then Comcast jumped in with a $31 billion all-cash bid for the entirety of Sky. Comcast is desperately looking for growth outside of the moribund U.S. cable business where cord-cutting by consumers makes Comcast particularly needy.

The faster-growing European market offers it an opportunity to strengthen a major weakness (little overseas exposure). Comcast currently has about 29 million U.S. customers, while Sky has about 23 million subscribers. If Comcast is successful, its international revenues will climb to 25% of total revenues from just 9% currently.

I do think this is a good attempt by Comcast to improve its fortunes. So I’ve been amused by some of the comments from U.S. analysts on the proposed offer for Sky by Comcast. As I’ve found all too often, there is a lack of understanding about businesses overseas by analysts in the U.S. Some U.S. analysts have given the deal a thumbs-down, saying why would Comcast want to buy a satellite TV company?

Sky is a whole lot more… as Comcast CEO Brain Roberts said, “There’s nothing as great in the United States.” Here’s why…

A Look at Sky

First, Sky is much more than a U.K. satellite TV company. It is pan-European, having expanded into Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Austria and Ireland. But more importantly, Sky is both a telecoms operator (selling TV, internet and phone services), and a media company with its own original news, sports and entertainment programming.

The company is not sitting by idly as rivals such as Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Amazon.com (Nasdaq:  AMZN) enter their turf. Sky recently launched a low-cost plug-in stick that will provide access to its films, television shows, and live sports including English Premier League soccer matches on any TV set.

Sky is also launching a download service called Now TV – after customers with children clamored for such a feature – to watch programming any time you’re away from home and have no internet or Wi-Fi connection.

These innovations let a customer avoid the expense of a high-end Sky set-top box and pay £14.99 ($20.61) for the smart stick and remote, choosing to buy Now TV day- or week-passes to watch box sets, films and Premier League sport without being stuck in a monthly contract. Sky has positioned Now TV as a lower-cost streaming competitor to Netflix and Amazon since it costs less than £10 ($13.75) a month. Later this year, Sky is also planning to unveil a broadband TV service that will allow customers who want its full TV service to do so without the need for a satellite dish.

So in effect, Sky is a smaller European version of what the U.S. media giants like AT&T (NYSE: T) with its proposed takeover of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) are trying to become. That is, an integrated distribution platform that produces its own content.

Higher Bid Likely

It is highly likely that Fox/Disney will raise their bid for control of Sky. In addition to the reasons above, Sky is now worth more than the original Fox bid because of its recent success in securing rights to the lucrative and extremely popular English Premier League soccer for another three years at a very good price.

One reason I expect a higher bid (to be absorbed by Disney) is the aforementioned Netflix. The rise of streaming video from pioneers such as Netflix and Amazon upended the staid television industry, eroding audiences and sapping advertising revenue. As the industry tries to deal with changing viewer habits, traditional media distributors realized they are exposed and may not survive without making major changes.

As Rich Greenfield, an analyst with BTG Research, told the Financial Times “Netflix has changed people’s desire to watch linear TV,” he adds, referring to traditional broadcast or cable TV where viewers tend to tune in at particular times. “And it has killed the concept of channel brands.” Viewers, he says, “no longer know or care” which channel their programs come from after “decades of broadcast and cable networks trying to build brands”.

The Two Best Stocks to Buy

Investors have it right when they give Netflix such a rich valuation because its model is the right one – direct-to-consumer and global. I see Netflix continuing to power ahead in the industry.

I also like Disney a lot. Sky will only add to its move toward more streaming services of its own. Disney is launching a streaming service for its Disney and Pixar brands and one for sports fans (ESPN).

The big plus as it moves toward streaming is Disney’s vast array of popular content including the traditional Disney cartoon characters as well as Marvel super-heroes and Star Wars. You need only to look at the popularity of Shanghai Disneyland – where the number of visitors (over 11 million) in its first year blew away even the most aggressive estimate – to understand the global appeal of the Magic Kingdom.

Disney’s wide array of assets, including its parks & resorts, as well as highly successful movie franchises (and marketing opportunities from that) make it the safest bet to be one of the long-term survivors in the new media landscape.

No matter the outcome of the bidding for Sky – although I’m betting on Disney – Netflix and Disney will be the two companies to own in this sector.

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It's not gold, crypto or any mainstream investment. But these mega-billionaires have bet the farm it's about to be the most valuable asset on Earth. Wall Street and the financial media have no clue what's about to happen...And if you act fast, you could earn as much as 2,524% before the year is up.
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Source: Investors Alley 

Make Up to 165% Returns on This Surprising Chip Stock

Following big options trades can be a very smart way to see what upcoming moves seasoned investors are betting on. In my experience, many of the smartest traders use options to make directional bets on stocks and indexes.

Let’s take a look at a particular “smart money” trade in the options market, why it may have come about, and how we can profit from it.

The trade I’m referring to took place in Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU). Micron is a semiconductor company which focuses on storage and memory chips. After struggling for several years, the stock has had a solid past year of performance.

Well, a very big trader, or perhaps a couple different traders, are betting big money that MU is going to continue going up through March 22nd earnings. Although the company pre-announced strong earnings and raised guidance, the smart money seems to believe the good times will continue, at least until April expiration.

Here’s the deal…

A couple very large call spreads traded this week in MU April options which are very bullish for the stock. Both trades involved buying the April 50 calls while simultaneously selling the April 55 calls. The trades occurred with MU stock at right around $48 per share.

In total, over 30,000 of these 50-55 call spreads traded for about $1.38 per spread. The premium cost of $1.38 is also the max loss on the strategy and it puts the breakeven point at $51.38. That also means max gain is $3.62. In dollar terms, the trader(s) spent about $4.1 million on the trade with the potential to earn $10.9 million if MU goes to $55 by expiration.

So why make such a bullish bet if the company pre-announced strong earnings? It could be investors believe the details of the earnings call will be even more bullish than the broad numbers already released. Or perhaps, it’s the result of the semiconductor industry seeing a lot of strong results overall.

Demand for flash memory is certainly increasing, judging from MU’s competition. And since flash memory is one of Micron’s specialties, investors may be betting on a bright future for the company – at least for the next few months.

That being said, what can we do to profit from knowing where the smart money is positioned on MU? It’s pretty easy in this case because we can do the exact same trade. There’s nothing fancy or prohibitive about a call spread, so there’s no reason we can’t emulate the trade.

Now, you can pay a bit less on the spread by not going all the way out to April expiration. For instance, if you think the stock is going to jump immediately after earnings, the earnings week 50-55 call spread (expiring March 23rd) is trading for $1.30 with the stock at $48.70.

However, I believe in this case, buying a little extra time is a good idea. And, since the stock has gone up almost a $1 since the big trades were made, it makes sense to save a bit in premium costs by not going out quite so far.

I recommend the March 29th 50-55 calls trading for about $1.37. At that price, max gain is $3.63 which works out to 165% returns if the stock goes to $55 or above by the expiration date.

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Source: Investors Alley 

5 Stocks to Sell in March

Stocks to Sell in March: Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (BGFV)

Stocks to Sell in March: Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (BGFV)

Source: Shutterstock

When I think of stocks to sell, Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (NASDAQ:BGFV) comes immediately to mind. Unfortunately, BGFV suffers from two double whammies: a terribly poor retail environment for sports equipment, and rising outcry over gun violence.

My first point is obvious. A surefire way to fail in business is to open a sporting goods store. The more specific the endeavor — in this case, outdoors sports — the more likely you’ll fail. Consider that in the past few years, specialty retailers Golfsmith and Eastern Outfitters filed for bankruptcy. Additionally, big name stores like Sports Authority and Sport Chalet closed their operations.

As a forgotten side note, the upside to BGFV stock is extremely limited. Even worse, the company will have to deal with the stigma of selling guns and ammunition. That in and of itself wouldn’t be a significant problem if it weren’t for the fact that Big 5 sells boring guns at ridiculous premiums.

Whenever gun control fears spike, people buy out politically targeted firearms; namely, the maligned AR15 and Kalashnikov-style rifles. Unfortunately, Big 5 doesn’t sell these guns. Instead, they offer shotguns, bolt-action rifles among other firearms. Thus, they deal with the stigma without any of the “benefit.”

That’s bad news for BGFV stock, and I don’t think circumstances will improve.

Stocks to Sell in March: New York Times Co (NYT)

Stocks to Sell in March: New York Times Co

Source: Shutterstock

The bear case for New York Times Co (NYSE:NYT) is a tough pill to swallow for me. Last year, I stated that NYT stock will win big in the era of “fake news.” No matter what side of the political spectrum you belong, we can say that everyone loves drama. Despite the NYT obviously not liking President Trump, he ironically gave the Times a reason to exist.

Since I last wrote about NYT stock, shares have gone up a whopping 67%. On a year-to-date basis, the Times has, in my view, inexplicably gained nearly 34%. I was bullish on this iconic news organization, but I think enough’s enough. The rally has gone too far, too fast and it’s time for a pullback.

Supposedly, rising sales in digital advertising and digital-only subscriptions contributed heavily to NYT stock. I say big deal. Not only are we experiencing a media revolution in which mainstream outlets are falling behind, people simply don’t get their news from the news anymore. How else can you explain Alex Jones’ popularity?

We live in a world where conspiracy theorists are given a (generous) platform simply because they’re not mainstream. And while NYT benefits from Trump scandals, I think the American people have had enough.

NYT stock deserves to be up, but not by this much!

Stocks to Sell in March: Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK)

When I was growing up, eating a McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) Big Mac was considered a rite of passage. Today, it’s rightfully considered child abuse. That’s why I was so shocked when I read our Will Ashworth’s latest piece on MCD. Mind you, I don’t care that he’s bullish on the company. Rather, I was floored when he gladly admitted to eating the stuff!

Joking aside, American public sentiment towards fast food is sharply declining. Most people are concerned about their health than ever before, particularly the younger generation. With several fast food companies having made strong gains in recent years, I think now is a great time to take profits. This goes double for smaller eateries like Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK).

The McDonald’s eating Ashworth made strong points about MCD, noting their aggressive push into budget meals and food deliveries. You combine this with their overall image renovation, and you have an outperformer in a soon-to-be-declining industry. McDonald’s can afford to do this. I’m not so sure that JACK can pull it off.

While I appreciate Jack in the Box’s humorous commercials, the competition moving forward will be fierce. McDonald’s has the brand, the locations, and the resources. JACK has funny advertisements. Beyond that, its shares’ technical volatility concerns me.

JACK stock enjoyed a stellar run from 2016, but it’s time to take some profits off the table.

Stocks to Sell in March: Twitter Inc (TWTR)

Stocks to Sell in March: Twitter Inc (TWTR)

Source: Shutterstock

Admittedly, I’m not the social media platform’s biggest fan. Therefore, it’s no surprise that I’ve been rather dim on Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR). While TWTR stock’s recent meteoric rise has been nothing short of stunning, I don’t like to chase momentum. I especially don’t like to chase investments that are not fundamentally sound.

Say what you want about the nearer-term trading opportunities for TWTR; its organizational structure is pure chaos. As my InvestorPlace colleague Dana Blankenhorn explained, COO Anthony Noto left the company to seek greener pastures. We all know that head executive Jack Dorsey is a part-timer. Blankenhorn writes that “Twitter has lost its adult supervision.” I do not disagree.

A breaking Reuters story, though, offers a contrasting take. TWTR is gaining both subscribers and ad revenues in Japan. The implication is that Twitter can duplicate the Japanese success in other markets.

To that, I say, good luck. Things are different in Japan. Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) isn’t the undisputed, dominant social media platform. The Japanese prefer the Yahoo search engine over Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ:GOOG,NASDAQ:GOOGL) ubiquitous Google.

Even if Twitter manages to turn Japan into its own powerhouse asset, one country won’t solve its problems. Specifically, its subscriber growth is stagnating and until they figure that out, TWTR is just floating on empty speculation.

Stocks to Sell in March: Dillard’s, Inc. (DDS)

Stocks to Sell in March: Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

Source: Shutterstock

Business owners always fear market saturation, but in reality, saturation in and of itself isn’t a problem. Issues arise when the underlying industry cannot support the present number of competitors; that’s when market saturation rears its ugly head. I believe that head is turning quite aggressively against Dillard’s, Inc. (NYSE:DDS).

With e-commerce giants like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) tearing into market share, being a specialty department store was always going to be a challenge. What brick-and-mortars had to their advantage was the apparel industry: you don’t know if something is going to fit you until you try it. But because every other brick-and-mortar have rebranded their businesses, DDS looks ancient.

It lacks Nordstrom, Inc.’s (NYSE:JWN) pizzazz. More people recognize the Macy’s Inc(NYSE:M) brand than Dillard’s. Neither of the companies have investors aching to buy their respective shares. Unfortunately, the physical retail market is shrinking, and DDS is the odd man out.

But the most important point to consider is the technical argument. On a year-to-date basis, DDS stock is up nearly 36%. Does it, or any other specialty department store, deserve to be up this high so quickly? I seriously doubt it, which is why I placed DDS on this stocks to sell list.

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Source: Investor Place 

A Pure Marijuana Play for a Growing Market

Editor’s note: Today we’re running an article Adam wrote in March 2017. It’s about one of the only legitimate pure marijuana stocks in the world. When this article first went out, Canopy Growth Corp. shares were trading around $11. Today they’re more than $27, and the company received an investment from Constellation Brands, one of the largest liquor companies in the world. We think it’s worth keeping an eye on this one.


Dear Early Investor,

If you’re a longtime reader of Early Investing, you know I’m always on the hunt for great marijuana investments.

After all, it’s not every decade that a $141 billion global market goes from prohibited to legalized. That’s exactly what we’re seeing play out across the world.

Today I’m going to look at one of the most intriguing cannabis stocks I’ve found so far.

That company is Canopy Growth Corp. (TSE: WEED), and it has become a massive player in Canada’s booming medical marijuana industry.

Canopy is a vertically integrated cannabis company. It does it all: grow, process, market and distribute. It’s as “pure” of a play on cannabis as you’ll find.

Canopy is expected to produce revenue of $44.8 million in fiscal 2017, up roughly 180% from 2016. The company is not yet profitable, but that hasn’t stopped enthusiastic investors from pushing the company’s share price up from a 52-week low of $2.40 to $11.05 as of March 16, 2017. (Note: All financial numbers are in Canadian dollars.)

The company’s market capitalization has risen to an impressive $1.7 billion. And in a vote of confidence, its shares were recently added to the S&P TSX Composite Index, Canada’s benchmark stock index.

Canopy operates out of an abandoned Hershey factory in Ontario, which it purchased for the bargain price of $6.6 million. This is a massive facility with more than 500,000 square feet of space.

Canada’s Plan to End Marijuana Prohibition

As you can see, Canopy’s medical marijuana business is humming along nicely. But the real potential comes as early as next year, when Canada is expected to legalize pot for recreational use.

study by Deloitte estimates that Canada’s retail marijuana sales could grow to $8.7 billion annually as a result.

And when you factor in the entire market (growing, processing and testing), that number could grow to a massive $22.6 billion per year.

Canopy is positioned nicely to take advantage of this shift. The company is well-capitalized, with more than $90 million in cash and just $7 million in debt.

My primary concern with the stock, however, is a significant one. The price of marijuana is likely to crash once recreational pot is legalized in Canada.

In Colorado, for example, wholesale prices have dropped a whopping 48% since the state legalized weed back in 2014.

With cannabis becoming “commoditized,” Canopy and other producers will need to focus on efficiency.

If the company can grow sales sufficiently to survive the price shocks that are likely to hit in the near future, I’d say Canopy has a very bright future indeed.

Bottom line: This company has a good shot at becoming the “Philip Morris of cannabis.”

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Adam Sharp
Co-Founder, Early Investing

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Source: Early Investing 

These Snubbed Funds Crush the Market and Yield Up to 8.5%

Remember early February’s stock-market rout?

I know. Seems like a weird question. It was just a few weeks ago, after all. But many folks seem to have forgotten how stocks fell 10% from their 2018 high in a matter of days:

Amnesia Sets In

As you can see, the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is already recovering, and stocks are now up 3.3% for 2018. That’s still well below the 8% climb we saw in January alone, but it’s a solid return, and it means more (formerly) skittish folks will likely trickle their cash into stocks, keeping the market buoyant.

But they aren’t putting their money in all sectors equally, and that’s where our opportunity comes in, starting with the 3 closed-end funds (CEFs) I have for you below, which are boasting some of their highest dividend yields ever—up to 8.5%!

What sector am I talking about? To answer that, we only need to look at this heat map of the S&P 500.

Where the Bargains Are

A quick glance tells us that consumer discretionary, financial and technology stocks are far outperforming the rest of the market, with year-to-date returns between 3.5% and 5.9%.

But we’re mainly interested in the red sectors—one in particular. And it’s not consumer staples.

That’s because the consumer staples selloff can best be understood as a “risk-on” move—staples, of course, are things people must buy all the time, so these stocks are attractive in tighter times. And since we’re in a time of growing incomes and falling joblessness, staples aren’t where you want to be.

That means the drop in consumer staples isn’t a great contrarian opportunity—it’s a falling knife. But when we compare ETFs benchmarking two other lagging sectors—the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)—a terrific opportunity pops up.

Utilities Go Up, Energy Goes Down—Until Now

As you can see, it’s rare for utilities and energy to fall at the same time; they tend to be inversely correlated.

When you stop and think about this, it makes sense. Utilities sell energy they produce using fuels from oil and gas producers; higher profits in the oil patch, therefore, mean lower profits for utilities, and vice versa.

But as you can see, both sectors are headed down today—and that’s why utilities look so attractive: because they’re buying energy cheap while selling more of it into a surging economy!

And when you add in the fact that many utilities have something near a monopoly in their market, this opportunity gets better still.

3 Ways to Buy In

We could just buy XLU and call it a day. With a 3.5% dividend yield, we could feel satisfied that we’re getting utility exposure and a “set it and forget it” investment.

But you’d be leaving a lot of cash on the table when you stack up XLU next to those 3 high-yielding CEFs I mentioned off the top. They are the Reaves Utility Income Fund (UTG), the Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF) and the DNP Select Income Fund (DNP).

I’ve chosen these funds not only because of their strong historical returns, which I’ll get to in a minute, but also because of the quality of their management and their portfolios.

UTG, for example, has one of the best asset management teams in the utilities space, and UTF’s diversified portfolio across North American, Asian and European assets has protected investors from a major market downturn for years. Finally, DNP’s focus on high-yielding large cap US utilities and telecommunications companies provides stability and a dividend investors can count on.

Each one specializes in utilities and has beaten XLU’s dividend yield while matching—or even topping—the ETF’s performance since the 2014 commodity crash.

Topping the Benchmark—With Big Cash Payouts, Too

On a longer term basis, these funds have all crushed XLU.

Winning Out Over the Long Haul

But how do these funds’ dividend yields compare to that of XLU? Quite nicely.

The bottom line? Utilities have tremendous upside, and it’s only a matter of time till the market picks up on this. The 3 CEFs I just showed you are a great way to get in on the action.

4 Must-Buy CEFs for 2018 (Huge Cash Dividends and 20%+ GAINS Ahead)

Utilities aren’t the only shockingly cheap corner of the market resulting from the selloff. There are 4 more markets that are even better places for your money now. But you won’t find them by looking at the S&P 500 “heat map” above—they’re well off most investors’ radar screens.

But these 4 obscure markets boast cash payouts 4 TIMES BIGGER than what the average S&P 500 stock pays!

They’re plenty safe, and even more undervalued than utilities are now.

That means one thing: we’re looking at massive upside here, especially if you buy my 4 favorite funds—one from each of these 4 unloved markets—today: I’m talking 20%+ price gains in a year or less!).

AND you’ll collect an outsized 7.6% average dividend payout while you watch these 4 incredible funds’ share prices arc higher.

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Source: Contrarian Outlook

How to Get Your Cut of Apple’s Money Coming Back to the US

Financial risks can seemingly come out of nowhere. Think about how many on Wall Street were caught off guard by the 2008-09 financial crisis or even the volatility of a few weeks ago. Yet the potential risk emanating from the packaging of bad mortgages was in plain sight, but ignored.

Today, there is another financial risk lurking in plain sight. It lies in the vast overseas holdings of technology giants like AppleAlphabetMicrosoft and many others. I discussed this topic to my subscribers in the October issue of Growth Stock Advisor. But since there is so much misunderstanding about the roughly $1 trillion (or possibly as high as $2 trillion) in funds held overseas by U.S. multinationals, I wanted to clear it up for you.

I know there is much misunderstanding about this subject just from gleaning the comments section on several recent articles published by The Wall Street Journal. Apparently, Americans are under the impression that this $1 trillion is just sitting in bank accounts overseas and that both the overseas banks and host countries don’t want to lose control of this money. Nothing could be further from the truth. Let me explain…

The New Force in Global Bond Markets

I want you to think about it for a moment, and it will make sense. Over the past decade, the largest U.S. companies have built up cash piles of as much as $2 trillion, rising more than 50% in that time period. Why would these firms let all that cash sit there idly, parked in a bank account?

Well, they haven’t. Instead, these aforementioned technology companies – they control about 80% of the overseas hoard – and other U.S. multinationals have put the money to work by snapping up all sorts of bonds. The purchases have mainly been the bonds of other corporations, but government bonds have also been bought.

In fact, companies like Apple, have actually issued their own low interest rate bonds and then used some of the proceeds to invest into the higher-yielding debt of other firms. In some cases, it has taken a large anchor position in certain offerings à la an investment bank like Goldman Sachs. In effect, it has become one of the world’s largest asset managers.

According to the Financial Times, thirty of the top U.S. companies have more than $800 billion worth (mainly short- and medium-term) of fixed-income investments. The breakdown is as follows:

  • $423 billion of corporate debt and commercial paper (very short-term corporate debt)
  • $369 billion of government and government agency debt
  • $40 billion of asset and mortgage-backed securities
  • $10 billion of cash

Those 30 aforementioned companies have accumulated more than $400 billion worth of U.S. corporate bonds. That is nearly 5% of the $8.6 trillion market. Apple itself owns over $150 billion of corporate bonds, more than most asset managers. And Microsoft owns over $112 billion in government securities.

This should not come as a shock to students of history. Some of the banking industry’s most venerable names started out in other businesses. The Rothschilds were merchant traders that became the most powerful banking empire in Europe. As Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Related: 3 Stocks to Sell Under Trump’s New Tax Law

The Risk to the Bond Market

I now want you to think about this scenario… let’s say most of these companies bow to political pressure and bring “home” this overseas hoard.

That would mean selling a lot of corporate and government bonds. The likely result would be a massive spike higher in interest rates. Just look at how poorly the market acted when there was just a hint of a tapering of purchases by the Federal Reserve. A massive unloading of bonds could quickly turn into a nasty market event starting in the bond market and quickly spreading to the stock market.

Ironic, isn’t it? A massive tax cut and ‘patriotically’ bring money back to the United States could end up being the trigger event for a recession caused by much higher interest rates.

Luckily, from what most of the technology companies (with the exception of Apple) have said in their latest conference calls, they are making no major plans to sell their bond holdings.

Microsoft – with the second biggest pile held overseas – said it had already been able to make all the investments it wanted under the old tax regime, and didn’t expect anything to change as a result of the law. Alphabet said, “There’s no change in our capital allocation.”

What It Means to You

As market participants, I think we should all breathe a collective sigh of relief. As of the moment, nothing has changed and you should just stick to your current investment plan.

But what if the political pressure heats up and these tech companies wilt and decided to liquidate their bond holdings?

Then putting money into the ProShares UltraShort 20+Year Treasury ETF (NYSE: TBT) would make a lot of sense. This ETF uses futures and swaps to correspond to twice the inverse of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+Year Bond Index. It is up 15% year-to-date thanks to the recent bond market scare, but is little changed over the past year.

Since most of the tech companies own a lot of corporate bonds, and if you have a high risk tolerance, you could short corporate bonds ETFs such as the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (Nasdaq: VCLT), which is down 4.7% year-to-date and the SPDR Barclays High-Yield Bond ETF (NYSE: JNK), which is down 0.6% year-to-date.

But only think about these trades if and when the technology companies begin liquidating their holdings. I do not think that will happen any time soon, but stay tuned.

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Source: Investors Alley 

The Case for Selling a Stock That’s Seen a 72% Boost in Revenue

On the surface, the 72% surge in year-over-year revenue that Snap Inc. (Nasdaq: SNAP) – parent company of camera and video app Snapchat – notched in the fourth quarter is mighty impressive. The total $285.7 million beat expectations by $33 million.

The firm also added 8.9 million new daily active users (DAUs) during the quarter – up 18% year-over-year to 187 million. That beat projections, too. Revenue per user rose 46% year-over-year to $1.53.

Look beyond the numbers, though, and you’ll see an uglier picture (no pun intended).

For starters, the company had to spend big to get that user growth, with sales and marketing costs up 119% and R&D expenses soaring by 260%.

And while Snapchat may be popular with the kids, it ain’t profitable.

The company lost $350 million during the quarter, compared with a $170 million loss in Q4 2016. Operating income also tanked from $169.7 million to $361 million over the same period. Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow also dropped. In fact, for the full year, Snap’s free cash flow sank by $819.2 million.

You don’t need me to tell you that losses that large are completely unsustainable over the long run.

And as for that strong user growth… well, it’s not as strong as Instagram, which boasted 150 million DAUs in early 2017, but had ballooned the number to 500 million by September.

And speaking of Instagram, Snapchat may have caused itself a problem: Users hate the company’s redesigned app – and it’s pushing some of them to Instagram’s similar features instead.

A petition on Change.org received over one million people imploring Snapchat to scrap the new layout – an unusually large number, even for a social media platform.

And as if things could not get any worse for Snap, on Wednesday Kylie Jenner of Kardashian fame wiped out $1.3 billion in market value for Snap as shares plummeted from her short tweet:

“sooo does anyone else not open Snapchat anymore? Or is it just me… ugh this is so sad.”

That’s all it took for the stock to drop 6% in a matter of hours. And this is after it had already been on a downward slide since the beginning of the week. All told investors have lost close to 15% just this week. Ouch.

Snap may be improving its top-line numbers, but the company still isn’t anywhere near profitability. Until it manages to arrest the negative profit and cash flow trends, as well as add new users more cheaply (and not anger its existing base!), it’s an expensive and risky stock to own in a more volatile market.

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Source: Investors Alley 

The 10 Best ETFs of February 2018

February was a crazy month for investors; consequently, the landscape of best-performing exchange-traded funds expanded from primarily biotech and emerging-market ETFs in January to several other spaces for this edition of the best ETFs of the month.

In February, the fortitude of those with generally bullish outlooks was tested as the Dow Jones Industrial Average made historic 1,000-plus point drops twice in less than two weeks. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down more than 4% on the month.

The turmoil is mostly attributed to anticipation of a rise in interest rates based on expectations of inflation in the months ahead. But outside of these struggles, some ETFs still managed to maintain impressive performances, while others managed to step up and replace old champions.

In no particular order, here are the best ETFs of February, excluding leveraged funds and exchange-traded notes.

Best ETFs of February: ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (CLIX)

Best ETFs of February: ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (CLIX)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.65%
YTD Performance: 18% vs 2% for the S&P 500

Among the best ETFs of February were several retail-based ETFs. Notably, the ProShares Long Online/Short Stores ETF (NYSEARCA:CLIX) manged to stand out from the crowd, as it has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2018 so far.

This recently founded ProShares ETF is distinct in that it has a multifaceted strategy that aims to take full advantage of the death of traditional retail while also focusing on the rise of internet retailers. The CLIX achieves this by shorting traditional retail stocks and simultaneously holding online retailers with significant growth. As such, its holdings are constantly varying.

In simplest terms, the long/short approach of this ETF means investors “benefit from both outperforming online and underperforming physical retailers.”

Best ETFs of February: Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF (CNCR)

Best ETFs of February: Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF (CNCR)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.79%
YTD Performance: 23%

Last month, the Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF (NASDAQ:CNCR) made it on the list of best-performing ETFs and it continued its success in February with an impressive 20% advantage over the S&P.

For those who are unfamiliar with CNCR, it’s a biotech ETF that emphasizes companies that are involved with cancer research and treatment.

More specifically, CNCR’s holdings must have cancer immunotherapy drugs that are approved by the FDA or EMA, are in human testing stages, are about to enter human testing stages and/or are involved with other companies that focus on immunotherapy. This includes companies like Aduro BioTech Inc (NASDAQ:ADRO) and AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE:AZN), which are among its top 10 holdings.

Best ETFs of February: Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR)

Expense Ratio: 0.19%
YTD Performance: 14%

Although some new names made the list of best ETFs of February, Brazilian emerging market ETFs like Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:FLBR) still performed exceptionally well this month.

The FLBR follows the FTSE Brazil Capped Index, which emphasizes the most notable large- and mid-cap companies in the country. Although investing in emerging markets like Brazil carries significant risks, top holdings like iron producer Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE) and brewing company Ambev SA (ADR) (NYSE:ABEV) give investors access to tons of growth potential in a less familiar marketplace.

Best ETFs of February: Global X Social Media ETF (SOCL)

Expense Ratio: 0.65%
YTD Performance: 12%

Global X Social Media ETF (NASDAQ:SOCL) does exactly as its name suggests — it gives investors exposure to social media companies from across the world. As such, it isn’t your run-of-the-mill tech ETF. And the fact that it has outpaced the S&P 500 places it among the best ETFs of 2018 so far.

The SOCL ETF does hold U.S. social media names like Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) and Snap Inc(NYSE:SNAP), but it also holds international social media stocks like Russian internet technology company Yandex NV (NASDAQ:YNDX) and Chinese internet-based holding company Tencent Holdings Ltd (OTCMKTS:TCEHY).

Best ETFs of February: iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)

Best ETFs of February: iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.62%
YTD Performance: 14%

As with last month, another Brazilian-based ETF — iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:EWZ) — managed to out-do the competition and it remains one of the best ETFs of 2018 so far.

This ETF isn’t significantly different from the FLBR, but as emphasized on last month’s list, EWZ is more focused — it has less holdings — and it has a significantly longer track record of success than relative newcomer FLBR. However, depending on how you look at it, the FLBR could have the upper hand since it has a lower expense ratio at 0.19% compared to the EWZ’s 0.62%.

Ultimately, whichever ETF you focus on, Brazil remains one of the hottest emerging markets out there, and both funds have demonstrated significant staying power in 2018.

Best ETFs of February: Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)

Best ETFs of February: Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.65%
YTD Performance: 13%

The Amplify Online Retail ETF (NASDAQ:IBUY) is another retail ETF that has managed to beat the competition at the start of the year and become one of the best-performing ETFs.

Unlike the CLIX, the IBUY does not feature a short/long approach; however, it distinguishes itself by focusing on both traditional retail names that are converting to a primarily online format and online e-tailers that should experience significant growth in the years ahead. This gives investors a basket of stocks with known-name brands like Lands’ End, Inc. (NASDAQ:LE) and online up-and-comer Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFLY).

Best ETFs of February: PowerShares NASDAQ Internet ETF (PNQI)

Best ETFs of February: PowerShares NASDAQ Internet ETF (PNQI)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.6%
YTD Performance: 15%

Although many biotech ETFs were among the best performing last month, many tech/internet-based ETFs have manged to hold strong through February’s volatility. The PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust (NASDAQ:PNQI) is no exception, as it has out-paced the S&P 500 by more that 12%.

The PNQI tracks the NASDAQ Internet Index, which contains the “largest and most liquid U.S.-listed companies engaged in internet-related businesses.” In plain English, that means the ETF contains major tech names like Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Amazon and Chinese internet search provider Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU).

It might not have countless obscure tech names with mega-ton growth potential, but it does contain many of the top players with more than 90% of its holdings allocated to mostly large-cap stocks that focus on internet software & services and internet & direct marketing retail. This makes it a fairly reliable fund for those who have faith in the consistently strong tech space.

Best ETFs of February:  iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS)

Best ETFs of February:  iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.62%
YTD Performance: 13%

Although it didn’t make an appearance on last month’s list, Russia was a notable emerging market in February, as seen in the standout performance in the iShares MSCI iShares MSCI Russia ETF (NYSEARCA:ERUS).

While U.S. stocks were generally struggling to hold their ground, the ERUS manged to gain a 12% lead over the S&P. As with all emerging markets, there is tons of growth potential packed in, but with that comes significant risk. But investors who are willing to look past these risks (as well as the “us versus them” political landscape), might find what they’re looking for in this fund.

The ERUS tracks a wide variety of Russian stocks like financial Sberbank of Russia(OTCMKTS:AKSJF) and gas pipeline operator Gazprom PAO (ADR) (OTCMKTS:OGZPY), most of which are likely unfamiliar to U.S.-based investors.

Best ETFs of February: iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF)

Best ETFs of February: iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.49%
YTD Performance: 12%

As mentioned earlier, several emerging-market ETFs retained their spot on the list of best ETFs for the month, and that includes the iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:ILF).

Although several of the ETFs on this list emphasize Brazil, the ILF will be appealing to those looking for generalized exposure to the best that the Latin American marketplace has to offer. There’s still an impressive allocation to Brazilian stocks with this ETF (60%), but other Latin American countries — Mexico (23%) and Chile (12%) — have a significant presence.

As such, its top holdings include companies like Brazilian energy play Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (ADR) (NYSE:PBR), telcom America Movil SAB de CV (ADR) (NYSE:AMX) and Mexican holding company Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB (ADR) (NYSE:FMX).

Best ETFs of February: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB)

Best ETFs of February: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense Ratio: 0.72%
YTD Performance: 9%

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:KWEB) embodies a combination of two trends that the best ETFs of the month followed: it’s an emerging-market ETF with an emphasis on internet-based companies.

Specifically, the KWEB focuses on “China-based companies whose primary business or businesses are in the internet and internet-related sectors.” What that all boils down to is a large sector breakdown in tech (60%) and consumer discretionary (37%) stocks, with the remainder allocated to industrial companies (2.5%).

The fund’s heavy emphasis on Chinese large-cap (55.7%) and mid-cap (35.4%) companies leads to top holdings like the “Chinese Amazon” Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), JD.Com Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ:JD) and Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB).

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Source: Investors Place

How To Make 150% Returns Off Of Higher Interest Rates

After a year of mostly moving higher, with barely any volatility to speak of, we’re finally seeing a shift in the financial markets. It’s not just stocks – bonds, commodities, and currencies are also moving into new territories.

Of course, much of the change is due to the expected change in interest rates and inflation (which are directly linked). It’s been several years since we’ve had any substantial changes in interest rate expectations. The arrival of higher rates is certainly inducing a sea of change to the financial markets.

Now, not every change to the market is going to be as extreme as the selloff we experienced at the beginning of February. The volatility spike was especially nasty (and probably way overdone). But, sometimes it’s a major event like the early February correction which begins a longer-term trend.

The trend in bond prices hasn’t exactly been subtle either, although it’s not as extreme as the move in stocks and volatility. You can see in the chart below of iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ: TLT), that long bonds have been in steady decline since the start of the year.

Keep in mind, bond prices and interest rates move inversely. So, if rates are expected to continue going up, then bond prices should also continue selling off. Subsequently, some big traders apparently think bond prices have a lot farther to fall. There’s been a lot of big options action in TLT this past week.

In one trade, a buyer grabbed 15,000 March 16th 115 TLT puts for $0.62 with the stock just above $117. That’s a $930,000 bet that TLT will drop to at least $114.38 by March expiration. In another similar trade, the trader bought 10,000 March 16th 116 puts for $0.84. That works out to $840,000 in premium with a breakeven point of $115.16.

Those are just a couple of the trades I saw betting on TLT’s downside. Clearly, there’s a lot of money being spent on a potential big down move in bond prices.

Given what we’ve seen with CPI data, employment numbers, and corporate results, I tend to agree that bonds are going to keep going down (while interest rates go higher). I also think TLT is one of the cheaper ways to bet on higher interest rates.

However, I wouldn’t necessarily purchase naked puts in TLT either. You can save some decent premium costs by using put spreads as an alternative. For instance, the March 16th 115-117 put spread (buying the 117 puts while selling the 115 puts) only costs $0.80, with TLT stock just over $117.

Your breakeven on this trade is $116.20, while your max gain is $1.20. For only $0.80 you can potentially earn 150% returns if TLT keeps moving down. It’s a smart way to bet on higher interest rates without spending a ton of cash.

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Source: Investors Alley 

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