While the tech heavy Nasdaq rebounded slightly Monday, both the DJIA and S&P 500 were off around one-half percent. Large banks led the markets lower, with both Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) falling 3%. Investors continue to worry that rising interest rates will crimp economic growth. International tensions remained high between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia after reports this weekend that a Washington Post journalist was killed by Saudi representatives in the country’s embassy in Turkey. The chorus calling for President Trump to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia is growing louder. Chinese stocks rallied Monday, but only after the government promised stimulus to offset falling growth.

Tuesday earnings will include reports from McDonald’s (MCD), Verizon (VZ) and 3M (MMM). McDonald’s earnings will be scrutinized for any wavering in its international business. With international growing 4% last quarter, non-U.S. earnings now represents almost two-thirds of the company’s business. Though the U.S. business is still large, U.S. growth has been lagging international for some time. Verizon, looking to become a large player in 5G, should provide some guidance on how the new technology rollout is progressing. The company recently did a limited rollout of its new 5G service to select residential customers. Other earnings Tuesday include Caterpillar (CAT), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Texas Instruments (TXN).

The economic calendar on Tuesday includes Redbook retail numbers, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Year-over-year retail sales are expected to come in at 5.8%. The retail sales number has been rising steadily since the beginning of the year. Wednesday mortgage applications, new home sales and the FHFA House Price Index will all be released. New home sales are expected to tick up slightly to 625,000 for a second positive gain after improvement in August. Mortgage applications are expected to drop a little over 7% for the week. Flash PMI numbers will also be released on Wednesday.

Microsoft (MSFT) releases earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. Investors would like to see a continuation of the rapid growth of Azure, the company’s cloud business. Microsoft ranks second, only behind Amazon Web Services (AWS) in the size of its cloud business, and the segment has been absolutely on fire. Last quarter the cloud business grew over 90% year-over-year. AT&T (T) also reports earnings Wednesday. While the company’s stock has staunched some of its losses since late summer, the stock is still down over 15% on the year. Analysts will be looking for some insight into growth plans going into 2019 where the company will hope to make up ground on competitors like Verizon, up almost 4% in 2018. Also reporting Wednesday are Visa (V), Boeing (BA) and United Parcel Service (UPS).

Markets took a much needed rest Wednesday after staging a major relief rally on Tuesday. Netflix (NFLX) earnings, released after the close Tuesday and beating estimates by over 30%,  set the tone for Wednesday’s trading, and ensured the market would not give back much of Tuesday’s rally. Markets finished relatively flat on the day. While focus is turning back to earnings and away from rates for the time being, earnings call commentary will likely drive the market the rest of the week. Earnings are expected to be strong, but many analysts are looking to executive leaders to provide input to help model out tariff and rising rate impacts. Whether rising revenue can continue to outpace rising costs is the big question driving the market.

Thursday earnings will include American Express (AXP), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Textron (TXT). Analysts are expecting good news from Amex with increasing customer count as well as additional spending by the customer base. The stock is up about 5% in 2018 after the recent pullback touched off by the threat of rising interest rates. The company should provide a good gauge of how the initial rate raise is impacting customer spending. Textron announced a deal with NetJets to provide up to 300 planes on Monday. The Jet builder moved up on the news, but gave back those gains by Wednesday. The jet market has been kind to Textron this year, and analysts will be looking for a 2019 outlook that is as rosy as 2018.

Thursday’s economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey. The October survey number is expected to decline slightly from a surge in September. The September number included an unusually large drawdown in inventory, which analysts do not believe will be repeated in October. Leading economic indicators will also be released Thursday, and are expected to increase to .5% from .4% in August. The number can be slightly discounted as September stock market gains have vanished through mid-October. Friday, existing home sales numbers are expected to continue a decline that is an inverse image of rising mortgage rates. The uptick in rates has hit the existing sales number hard over the past 5 months.

Major earnings announcements will be released Friday from heavy-hitters Procter & Gamble (PG), Honeywell (HON) and Schlumberger (SLB). While making a nice move since May, P&G’s stock is down almost 12% on the year. Should a rotation out of growth and into defensive stocks emerge, investors will want to keep an eye on the quality of Procter & Gamble’s earnings coming out of this latest quarter, as the stock may become a potential portfolio addition. With both oil prices and rig counts rising, Schlumberger stock has not kept pace. Investors should watch this earnings quarter closely for the world’s largest oilfield services company. Any positive surprises may put in a bottom for the battered stock.

Market participants breathed a sigh of relief Monday as markets settled down from the extreme volatility of last week. Markets traded in a fairly narrow range, and then ended on a sour note, falling into the close. Nasdaq was again the most heavily hit, falling almost one percent. Traders weren’t taking the decrease in volatility as an all clear sign yet, as tensions remain high on several fronts, including interest rates and international politics. Investors in the technology sector are keeping an eye on rising tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia is a major investor in large technology companies, and some fear an escalation of tensions could impact some large U.S. tech companies. Sears (SHLD) declaration of bankruptcy Monday morning was almost a footnote for the market, as the company’s stock had been in a multi-year decline, and the bankruptcy had been expected for several weeks.   

Earnings season kicks off in earnest Tuesday as companies such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Netflix (NFLX) and CSX Corp. (CSX) report to investors. Netflix is the first FAANG stock to report after the market volatility of last week. The company missed subscriber estimates last quarter, so investors will be wary of any missteps in this quarter’s report. Any negative commentary may bleed over into the tech sector in general. Analysts aren’t expecting any surprises out of J&J, but that may be just what the doctor ordered. While health care has been red hot on the year, the big drug company is actually down slightly. Investors may want to keep an eye on the stock after earnings to see if it starts participating in the rotation out of growth and into defensive names.

Tuesday’s economic numbers include Redbook retail data, industrial production data, the Housing Market Index, and the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover numbers, or JOLTS. The job openings number for August is expected to hold steady at 6.9 million after hitting a record in July. Wednesday morning the focus will be on housing before turning back to interest rates in the afternoon as the Fed meeting minutes are released. Consensus opinion is that housing starts will continue to fall when the number is released Wednesday, but permits for new building are expected to rise. Mortgage applications are also expected to decline almost two percent as both new and refi applications are both expected to drop for the month of September.

Earnings announcements from U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Alcoa (AA) will take center stage Wednesday. Kinder Morgan had the advantage of rising oil prices, as well as closing a deal with the Canadian government on the sale of its Trans Mountain Pipeline, in the third quarter. Analysts will be eager to hear whether the company will be returning additional capital to shareholders or advancing other potential growth projects. Alcoa has been in a steady downtrend after hitting an April high of just over $62. Now at $35, investors will be looking for signs of a turnaround from the aluminum provider. More importantly, the company may have valuable insights into whether the overall economy may already be slowing in anticipation of higher interest rates.   

Markets took investors for a wild ride Friday bouncing hard after two days of intense selling, turning lower midday, and then closing strong into the close. An attack on the Fed by President Trump seemed to exacerbate market volatility Thursday, originally brought on by fears the Fed would proceed willy nilly into a rate raising plan regardless of economic impact. By the close Friday, markets seemed to have stabilized, at least for the moment, with the tech heavy Nasdaq leading the way up over 2%. One stabilizing factor may have been news the lines of communication may be about to open between the U.S. and China on the issue of tariffs. Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump plan to meet at the G20 summit next month in Buenos Aires.

Bank earnings continue Monday with Bank of America (BAC) reporting in the morning and First Defiance Financial Corp. (FDEF) reporting Monday afternoon. As with the other big banks, investors will be focused on what BAC perceives the impact of rising rates will be going into Q4 and 2019. The bank reported good trading numbers in the first half of 2018, but that is unlikely to persist. BAC stock broke through support levels around $28 on Friday before rallying to close just above those levels. Much smaller than BAC, First Defiance has not been spared by the market selloff. The stock is down over 13% this quarter headed into earnings.

Most investors will be holding their breath on Monday, to see if the market turns its focus away from interest rate concerns back to economic numbers. Manufacturing numbers have been good, and we’ll get the New York manufacturing survey Monday morning. The survey numbers have been rising steadily throughout 2018. Also on tap for Monday are retail sales numbers and business inventories. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to be up .3% month-over-month. Tuesday we’ll get Redbook retail numbers, industrial production, and the housing market index. The index, which measures the demand for housing, has been in a steady decline all year. Wednesday investors will look through housing starts numbers and then spend the afternoon parsing through the Fed minutes from their last meeting. Jobless claims and the Philly Fed Business Outlook will be released Thursday, followed by existing homes sales numbers Friday.

Earnings kick into high gear on Tuesday, when Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH) and Netflix (NFLX) report. Netflix, one of the FAANG stocks, is down close to 20% for the quarter, but is still up over 60% on the year. Wednesday Abbott Labs (ABT), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are slated to release. Investors will be looking to Kinder Morgan for guidance on the oil market, which declined along with the overall market this week. SAP (SAP), Paypal (PAY) and high flying Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) headline the earnings releases Thursday. Even after a dip in October, ISRG stock is up almost 40% in 2018. Finally, investors will close out the week on Friday with a smorgasbord of earnings from consumer staples giant Procter & Gamble (PG), Honeywell (HON) and Schlumberger (SLB), among many others.

Markets seesawed between positive and negative Monday without the U.S. bond market available to lend direction. Already pundits are calling for Fed Chief Powell’s head, as they fear rising rates will crush the decade long bull market. In a CNBC interview Monday, BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder, who oversees the management of $1.85 trillion in bonds, said he believes the Fed will back down and only raise one or two times next year. Many worry that by telegraphing its moves, the Fed has been set on autopilot and a course correction would be very difficult to implement. Market participants may prefer a little more uncertainty coupled with a more data driven approach headed into 2019. But, others point to the fact that the market moves thus far in reaction to rising rates has been a mere blip in this long-toothed bull market.

Tuesday investors will get earnings from AZZ Corp. (AZZ) and Helen of Troy (HELE). AZZ had a rough past year, as CEO Tom Ferguson put it on their last earnings call, “We are glad to have the year…behind us.” In addition to issues including large customer project cancellations, the company was forced to undertake a restatement of its financials which clearly took a toll on management. The company, which provides a variety of metal working and coating material services for the energy market, has performed relatively well in the circumstances. Investors will be looking for the company to hit the reset button, and will want to know exactly what that entails moving forward. Helen of Troy CEO Julien Mininberg proudly touted the company’s increased online sales, up 30%, last quarter. Shareholders were pleased with the efficient operation of the household and beauty goods provider, sending the stock up almost 15% after that earnings report. The stock has continued a good run, but has pulled back recently headed into Tuesday’s earnings.

The small business optimism index is expected to pull back very slightly from last month’s record high when it is announced Tuesday morning. The consensus is for the index to move from 108.8 to 108. Redbook retail numbers will also be released Tuesday morning. The weekly number may serve as a canary in a coal mine for analysts looking for interest rate impact on consumer pocketbooks as we head into Q4. Mortgage application numbers are expected to be flat when they are announced Wednesday. With new mortgages ticking up .1% but refis backtracking .1% the overall number is expected to remain unchanged. Investors will also have a chance to peruse the PPI and Atlanta Fed business inflation expectation data on Wednesday.

Fastenal (FAST), a bellwether of the industrial construction market, reports earnings Wednesday. Analysts will want to hear how management sees rising rates impacting business into next year. The nuts and bolts provider may have especially relevant insight into the industrial construction market at this juncture in the Fed story. Also reporting on Wednesday is VOXX International (VOXX). The automotive and consumer audio provider is down 38% in the past year. Last quarter CEO Pat Lavelle promised the second half of the year would see better earnings numbers, as well as a continuation of cost cutting. Investors looking for a rebound in the stock will be looking to Mr. Lavelle for the promised improvements.

One word could be used to describe the performance of the equity markets on Friday: bonds. Rising interest rates, combined with the lowest unemployment rate since the ‘60s, spooked markets. Both the DJIA (-.68%) and Nasdaq (-1.16%)  fell, rallying off of lows into the close. Traders worry that the Feds balancing act may prove difficult as the economy either picks up steam too quickly, or rising rates put a brake on what many believe are the beginnings of a normalization of the economy. The fear of deteriorating relations with China, both political and economic, meant there was no good news on the tariff front either. Deals with both Mexico and Canada have helped keep the rally in motion the past few weeks. China trade issues will likely take a more prominent role Monday as bond markets are closed for Columbus Day.

Given the holiday, there are no earnings reports on Monday, but earnings start rolling in for the second week of October on Tuesday. Helen of Troy (HELE) and AZZ, Inc. (AZZ) both report Tuesday morning. Helen of Troy is expected to show a revenue decline of just over 7% from the previous year’s quarter, but earnings are expected to tick up slightly. The household and personal goods provider is up over 30% in 2018. AZZ is expected to report a 40% increase in year-over-year earnings. The stock had been performing well this year until the last month in which it has fallen almost 10%. Rising interest rates may be spooking investors in the energy and metal coatings industrial company.

Monday we’ll see the release of the TD Ameritrade investor sentiment index. Analysts will be interested to see if rising rates have begun to show up in the index which measures retail investor exposure to the equity markets. Tuesday analysts will parse the small business optimism numbers as well as Redbook retail data. Wednesday will see investors turn back to talk of interest rates as mortgage application and the Atlanta Fed business inflation expectation numbers are released.  Mortgage applications are expected to be flat. CPI data and weekly jobless claims will be released on Thursday. CPI is expected to move up .2% month-over-month. We’ll close out next week with import-export prices and consumer sentiment numbers on Friday.

Fastenal (FAST) reports earnings on Wednesday, along with VOXX International (VOXX) and Saratoga Investment Corp. (SAR). Thursday Delta Airlines (DAL) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WAL) take the earnings spotlight. Walgreens recently announced a $34.5 million fine from the SEC for misleading investors in the midst of its merger with Boots Alliance in 2013-14. Friday will be the most anticipated earnings day next week. Several big banks, including Citibank (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and JP Morgan (JPM) are among those reporting. Analysts will be keen to hear the banks’ take on rising rates and how they will impact future earnings. All three banks have shown positive price action the last few days.   

Flagging financial stocks rallied Wednesday providing enough fuel for the market to power higher once again. Taking a cue from the highest ISM non-manufacturing index numbers since 1997, markets rallied out of the gate and held onto fleeting gains into Wednesday’s close. The ISM numbers, combined with strong employment numbers also released Wednesday morning, forced trade tariff worries to the back burner. If financials can truly turn here, as many have been expecting for several months, citing rising interest rates, they may become the new flag bearer for the bull market. But, they’ll need more than one day of positive price action to pull investors to their banner.

Constellation Brands (STZ) reports earnings Thursday morning. The company known for its beverage products, recently upped its stake in Canopy Growth, a Canadian based medical cannabis company, by $4 billion. Investors will be looking for an update on how Constellation intends to integrate Canopy’s products with its brands, and what the timetable looks like. Also reporting earnings on Thursday is Costco (COST). The bulk item retailer is up nicely in 2018, and now sports a fairly rich PE of 36. Analysts are looking for sales and earnings growth to come in strong, but the more important number to focus on may be margins. If the membership company can show margins are moving in a positive trend, the stock could finish out 2018 on a strong note.

Given Wednesday’s data, scheduled Thursday and Friday economic numbers may support positive market action headed into the weekend. Both days are clearly focused on a discussion of jobs. Thursday we’ll see the Challenger Job Cuts Report along with jobless claims, and factory orders numbers. And then Friday brings the release of the employment situation numbers, which includes the unemployment rate, as well as nonfarm and private employment numbers. The unemployment rate is expected to drop again to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings are expected to tick up only .3%. Strong employment numbers could provide a base for the market to catapult into a strong fourth quarter.

Joining the earnings hit parade on Thursday is International Speedway Corporation (ISCA). Given the widely reported decline in the NASCAR fan base, most investors would probably be surprised to learn the stock is actually up over 17% so far in 2018. This may be a case of bad news already being baked into the stock price last year. Analysts don’t expect much out of the racing stadium owner on Thursday, and will mainly be looking for any signs of a stabilization of the fan base. No earnings are currently scheduled for Friday.

The announcement that the U.S. and Canada had reached a trade agreement sent the DJIA and S&P 500 higher Monday. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA must be approved by Congress before it goes into effect. The rally in U.S. markets appeared to be more of a relief rally that there is finally some certainty on trade in North America than a celebration of the deal. Traders hope the closing of this deal portends a shorter trade war with China, and perhaps an agreement with the EU. But while announcing the new USMCA in the Rose Garden, President Trump threw cold water on restarting U.S./China talks by saying it was “too early to talk” trade with China at this point. The President presumably wants to give the new tariffs a chance to have an impact before reopening negotiations.

Pepsico (PEP) reports earnings Tuesday. The beverage and snack company has been losing ground in North America, and covering with gains internationally for several quarters. The recent announcement that the company would be acquiring SodaStream (SODA) my staunch some of the erosion in North America, but short term the acquisition will likely add integration costs. Paychex (PAYX) also reports earnings Tuesday morning. After hitting lows in April, the payroll company has risen almost 30%, but earnings estimates have been falling the last few months. As with many of the financial stocks, the company may be feeling the effect of competition from upstart FinTechs more nimble than the $26 billion giant.

In economic news, Tuesday morning the Redbook retail numbers will be released along with motor vehicle sales. Following close on the heels of the trade deal, and with GM no longer providing numbers for the report, the auto numbers may need to come with a user guide this time around. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at 12pm on Tuesday, but it’s highly likely no new information will come out of the talk given the recency of the Fed announcement last week. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, the ADP Employment Report, services PMI, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will all be released. Consensus puts the employment number at 179,000 jobs created in September.

Supplementing the mortgage application numbers Wednesday morning will be earnings from Lennar (LEN). The home builder’s stock has plummeted this year. Investors are anxiously awaiting the company’s forecast and how rising interest rates will impact their business heading into 2019. An update on the merger progress with Calatlantic Homes will likely also be on tap. RPM International (RPM) has enjoyed a nice rally the second half of the year. The international sealant and coating company has been restructuring and cutting costs, which has pleased investors. To continue the move up, the company will need to paint a picture of growth in the year ahead, which may not be forthcoming on Wednesday.