Stocks rallied Monday following very healthy Black Friday and projected record Cyber Monday sales. Retail sales for the largest one day online shopping day in U.S. history were expected to come in at $7.8 billion. The projected numbers were enough to lift retailers, Amazon (AMZN) rose over 5%, Target added almost 3%, and the overall market for a nice one day rally. The DJIA was up 1.46%, the Nasdaq jumped 2.06%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.55%. The real question facing investors is whether this is a short-lived bear rally before the market continues to roll over, or if this marks the turning point of the recent correction which has decimated many high flying stocks. The wall of worry is clearly in place with tariff tensions, an aggressive Fed, Brexit concerns, and a faltering housing market. Prognostications on whether the aging bull is able to continue climbing the wall into 2019, or has already come to a final resting place, have begun shaping year end portfolio rebalancing decisions.

Salesforce (CRM) reports after the close on Tuesday. The 500 pound gorilla in the customer relationship market has fallen over 20% since the beginning of October. Investors will be focused on margins and customer retention rates at the software provider. Margins have taken a hit as the company integrates its latest acquisitions, such as Mulesoft from earlier this year. Analysts would like to see those margins rise once the dust has settled. Cracker Barrel (CBRL) will also release earnings Tuesday. The family focused casual restaurant took a hit after missing on earnings and sales estimates in September. But, the stock has rallied strongly since then closing in on all time highs reached earlier this year. Earnings should give a good read on how the consumer is holding up in a rising interest rate environment.

Tuesday analysts will be focused on housing as the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing price indexes are both released. The FHFA numbers, though still rising, have decelerated at a rapid pace since the end of 2017. Analysts fear rising rates, combined with a shortage of labor, are hitting entry level homes especially hard. Also released Tuesday is consumer confidence and the Redbook retail numbers. GDP will be the focus on Wednesday. Estimates are for Q3 GDP of 3.5% with consumer spending coming in at 3.7%. Also on tap are MBA mortgage applications and retail inventories. Investors will also want to tune-in as Fed Chairman Powell participates in a luncheon at the Economic Club of New York. The Chairman is scheduled to deliver remarks at 11:30am.

Retailers, from the high end to value discounters take the stage on Wednesday. Tiffany (TIF) and Burlington Stores (BURL) both report before the market opens. Tiffany has been on the comeback trail and has seen improving margins as cost controls have borne fruit. Analysts will have a close eye on the international business and whether tariffs are becoming an issue for the high end jeweler. Burlington has been on a roll this year. Even after the recent market induced selloff the company’s stock is still up about 20% in 2018. Burlington is expected to post a 51% gain in earnings on a year-over-year basis with analysts expecting $1.06 a share.       

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