Why Walmart Stock Will Rally to $115 In 2019

Pros and Cons to Buying Walmart Stock Ahead of the Holidays
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Shares of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) rose on Feb. 19, after the big-box retailer reported fourth-quarter numbers that largely topped expectations. Management also doubled down on a healthy fiscal 2020 guide that implies continued strength across the entire business. Walmart stock traded more than 3% higher in response to the news.

Why Walmart Stock Will Rally to $115 In 2019

Source: Shutterstock

This rally has legs to keep going.

In the big picture, Walmart has rapidly transformed itself into an omnichannel retailer that is more than holding its own in the top retail dog fight with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Many of the company’s new growth initiatives, including e-commerce enhancements and product expansions, are still in their early innings and will continue to drive healthy growth over the next several years. Plus, the company’s acquisition of Flipkart puts Walmart front and center of the world’s hottest and fastest growing consumer retail market.

Overall, there’s a lot to like about Walmart stock in the long run. Current fundamentals imply that Walmart can and will continue to grow revenues and profits at a healthy rate over the next several years. If so, then that means Walmart stock has runway to $115 in calendar 2019.

As such, buyers here won’t be disappointed. The rally in Walmart stock is far from over.

Fourth-Quarter Earnings Underscore Enduring Strengths

When it comes to retail, two things matter most: price and convenience. Those two things never stop mattering most, either. Consumers always want low prices. They also always want high convenience. Thus, so long as a retailer dominates on price and convenience, that retailer will succeed.

Walmart has been the poster child for low prices and high convenience for a long time. But, Amazon (and e-commerce in general) threatened Walmart’s dominance in those categories by making things cheaper, and by allowing consumers to buy those things from their computers or phones. Walmart naturally lost market share.

But, over the past several quarters, Walmart has adapted. They’ve slashed prices and built out a robust e-commerce business that includes things like “buy online, pick up in store”. As such, Walmart has regained a shared dominance with Amazon on the price and convenience fronts, and Walmart’s numbers have consequently improved.

In the fourth quarter, comparable sales rose 4.2%. That’s a strong mark for any retailer, especially one of Walmart’s size. On a two-year stack basis, comparable sales rose nearly 7%, and that’s the best mark in nine years for Walmart. Traffic growth is positive. Ticket growth is positive. E-commerce growth is red hot. On top of all that, margins are rising, too, for the first time in a long while, as improved top-line results are allowing for expense leverage.

Overall, through developing a robust omnichannel business, Walmart has regained dominance on the price and convenience fronts, and in so doing, has recharged growth throughout the whole business.

Walmart Stock Has More Upside Left

At current levels, Walmart stock has room to move higher over the next several months as revenues and margins move higher, too.

In fiscal 2019, comparable sales rose 3.6%, the best comp mark in years for this company. Next year, comparable sales growth is expected to slow, but not by much (2.75%). Also, revenue growth is expected to remain stable at a multi-year high of 3%-plus. Digital sales growth is guided to remain north of 30%. Margins are expected to move higher, too, excluding one-offs.

In sum, the growth narrative at Walmart is simply getting better. This is turning back into a low single-digit revenue and comparable sales growth narrative with gradually improving margins. Established market growth will inevitably slow over the next several years as current growth initiatives mature. But, such slowing growth will likely be offset by a developing market ramp, especially in India.

As such, Walmart will remain a low single-digit revenue growth company with gradually improving margins for the foreseeable future. Under those modeling assumptions, $7.80 in earnings-per-share seems achievable by fiscal 2025. Based on a historically average 20 forward multiple, that equates to a fiscal 2024 price target of $156. Discounted back by 8% per year (2 points below my average 10% discount rate to account for the yield), that equates to a fiscal 2020 price target for Walmart stock of roughly $115.

Bottom Line on WMT Stock

Walmart has regained its dominance on the price and convenience fronts. So long as Walmart maintains this dominance, the numbers will remain good, and the stock will head higher. Under reasonable growth assumptions, Walmart stock should move towards $115 over the next twelve months.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long WMT and AMZN.

Source: Investor Place

$41,200 in Income on a $550k Nest Egg: Here’s How

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: February 20, 2019

It’s a question I get from investors all the time: “Should I take my dividends in cash or reinvest them through a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP)?”

My answer: unless you want your cash sitting in your account earning zero, your best bet is to reinvest any dividend money you don’t need to pay your bills.

But we don’t want to practice “buy and hope” investing, either, whether we do it through obsolete DRIPs or the old-fashioned way.

When I say “buy and hope,” I mean putting your cash into household names like the so-called Dividend Aristocrats and “hoping” for higher stock prices when you cash out in retirement.

You’ve probably heard of the 57 stocks on the Aristocrats list, which have raised their payouts for at least 25 straight years. Trouble is, despite their lofty name, these companies hand us a pathetic current dividend of 2.2%, on average. And quite a few pay less than that:

5 Dividend Paupers

So if you invest mainly in the average Dividend Aristocrat (as many people do), you won’t have to worry about reinvesting your dividends. You’ll need every penny of dividend income just to keep the lights on!

That’s because even with a $1-million portfolio, you’re only getting $22,000 in dividend income a year here, on average. That’s not far above poverty-level income for a two-person household.

Pretty sad after a lifetime of saving and investing.

Luckily, there’s a way we can rake in way more dividend cash. I’m talking a steady $75,000 a year in income on a million bucks. And if you’re not a millionaire, don’t worry: a $550k nest egg will bring in $41,200 annually, enough for many folks to retire on.

That’s nearly double the income on our million-dollar Aristocrat portfolio, from a nest egg that’s a little over half the size!

How to Bank an Extra $41,200 in Cash Every Year

I know what you’re thinking: “Brett, that amounts to a 7.5% yield. There’s no way a payout like that can be safe.”

You can be forgiven for thinking that, because you hear it everywhere. But the truth is, there are plenty of safe payers throwing off at least that much, like the 21 stocks and funds in my Contrarian Income Report service’s portfolio (which I’ll show you when you click here).

Right now, these 21 sturdy investments yield 7.5%, on average. And every month I personally run each one through a rigorous dividend-safety check, starting with three things that are absolutely critical:

  1. Rising free cash flow (FCF)—unlike net income, which is an accounting measure that can be manipulated, FCF is a snapshot of how much cash a company is making once it’s paid the cost of maintaining and growing its business;
  2. A payout ratio of 50% or less. The payout ratio is the percentage of FCF that went out the door as dividends in the last 12 months. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) use a different measure called funds from operations (FFO) and can handle higher payout ratios, sometimes up to 90%;
  3. A healthy balance sheet, with ample cash on hand and reasonable debt.

Making DRIPs Obsolete

The best part is, these 21 investments are perfect for dividend reinvestment because each one gives us a dead-giveaway signal of when it’s time to buy, sit tight—or sell and look elsewhere for upside to go with our 7.5%+ income stream.

That makes DRIPs obsolete!

Because why would we mindlessly roll our dividend cash into a particular stock every quarter when, at a glance, we can pinpoint exactly where to strike for the biggest upside?

To show you what I mean, consider closed-end funds (CEFs), an overlooked corner of the market where dividends of 7.5% and up are common. We hold 11 CEFs in our Contrarian Income Reportportfolio, mainly larger issues with market caps of $1 billion or higher.

We don’t have to get into the weeds, but CEFs give off a crystal-clear signal that a big price rise is coming. You’ll find it in the discount to NAV, which is the percentage by which the fund’s market price trails the market value of all the assets in its portfolio.

This number is easy to spot and available on pretty well any fund screener.

This makes our plan simple: wait for the discount to sink below its normal level and make your move. Then keep rolling your dividend cash into that fund until its discount reverts to “normal.”

That’s exactly what we did with the Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX)back in January 2017—and the results were breathtaking.

How We Bagged a 40% Total Return (With a 7.5% Yield) in 15 Months

QQQX’s management team cherry picks the best stocks on the NASDAQ, juices their high yields with a low-risk options strategy, then dishes distributions out to shareholders. Back on January 6, 2017, QQQX was trading at a 6% discount to NAV and paid a 7.5% dividend.

That triggered our initial move into the fund. And over the next 15 months, we bagged two dividend increases and watched as QQQX’s discount swung to a massive premium—so much so that by the end of that period, the herd was ready to ante up $1.13 for every buck of assets in QQQX’s portfolio!

Discount Window Slams Shut…

That huge swing from a discount to a premium catapulted us to a fat 40% gain (including dividends). But the fund’s outrageous premium meant its upside was pretty well maxed out by the time we took our money off the table on April 6, 2018.

… and Delivers a Fast 40% Gain

And what’s happened since?

QQQX has plunged 6% (including dividends!), far underperforming the market’s 7.8% total return.

Premium Gives Us the Perfect Exit

Forget QQQX: Grab These 8% Monthly Dividends Instead

Here’s the punchline on QQQX: despite the loss it’s posted since last spring, it still trades at a 2% premium to NAV!

Why the heck would we overpay when the ridiculously inefficient CEF market is throwing us bargain after bargain as I write this?

There’s one more thing I have to tell you: many of these cheap CEFs pay dividends monthly instead of quarterly. So if you hold them in your retirement portfolio, their massive dividend payouts will roll in on exactly the same schedule as your monthly bills!

Convenience isn’t the only reason to love monthly payers, though. Because they also let you reinvest your payouts faster, amplifying your gains (and income stream) as you do.

I’m talking about an automatic “set-it-and-forget-it” CASH machine here!

The best news? You can kick-start your monthly income stream without doing a single moment of legwork … because I’ve done it all for you.

Source: Contrarian Outlook