5 Stocks That Could Be the Next Amazon

Winning the Cloud War Is Not the Best Reason to Buy Amazon Stock
Source: Shutterstock

[Editor’s note: This story was previously published in February 2019. It has since been updated and republished.]

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been one of the more impressive stocks of the past 25 years. In fact, AMZN now has returned well over 100,000% from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $18 ($1.50 adjusted for the company’s subsequent stock splits). A large part of the returns has come from two factors.

First, Amazon has vastly expanded its reach. What originally was just an online bookseller now has its hands in everything from cloud computing to online media to groceries, and its shadow is even larger.

Amazon’s buyout of Whole Foods rattled the retail market. Similarly, its entry into healthcare by buying PillPack (as well as its healthcare partnership with Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM))sent ripples through the healthcare sector.

In response, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) teamed up with Kroger (NYSE:KR) to “build the grocery store of the future,” and earlier this year announced a partnership with Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA) to fend off Amazon.

Second, as a stock, AMZN has managed the feat of keeping a growth stock valuation for over two decades. I’ve long argued that investors can’t focus solely on the company’s high price-earnings (P/E) ratio to value Amazon stock. But however an investor might view the current multiple, the market has assigned a substantial premium to AMZN stock for over 20 years now, and there’s no sign of that ending any time soon.

It’s an impressive combination, and one that’s likely impossible, or close, to duplicate. But these five stocks have the potential to at least replicate parts of the Amazon formula. All five have years, if not decades, of growth ahead. New market opportunities abound. And while I’m not predicting that any will rise 100,000% — or 1,000% — these five stocks do have the potential for impressive long-term gains.

5 Stocks That Could Be the Next Amazon Stock: Square (SQ)

Source: Chris Harrison via Flickr (Modified)

Square (SQ)

Admittedly, I personally am not the biggest fan of Square (NYSE:SQ) stock. I like Square as a company, but I continue to question just how much growth is priced into SQ already.

Of course, skeptics like myself have done little to dent the steady rise in AMZN stock. And valuation aside, there’s a clear case for Square to follow an Amazon-like expansion of its business. Instinet analyst Dan Dolev has compared Square to Amazon and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGLNASDAQ:GOOG), citing its ability to expand from its current payment-processing base:

“In 10 years, Square is likely to be a very different company helped by accelerating share gains from payment peers and relentless disruption of services like payroll and human resources.”

Just as Amazon used books to expand into ecommerce, and then ecommerce to expand into other areas, Square can do the same with its payment business. The small business space is ripe for disruption, as out own Josh Enomoto points out. Integrating payments into payroll, HR, and other offerings would dramatically expand Square’s addressable market – and lead to a potential decade or more of exceptional growth.

Again, I do question whether that growth is priced in, with SQ trading 60% higher than this time last year. But if (again, like AMZN) Square stock can combine a high multiple with consistent, impressive, expansion, it has the path to create substantial value for shareholders over the next five to 10 years.

Bad Optics Are Creating an Opportunity in JD.com Stock

Source: Daniel Cukier via Flickr

JD.com (JD)

In China, JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) is the company closest to following Amazon’s model. While rival Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) gets most of the attention, it’s JD.com that truly should be called the Amazon of China.

Like Amazon (and unlike Alibaba), JD.com holds inventory and is investing in a cutting-edge supply chain. It, too, is expanding into brick-and-mortar grocery, like Amazon did with its acquisition of Whole Foods Market. A partnership with Walmart (NYSE:WMT) should further help its off-line ambitions. JD.com is even cautiously entering the finance industry.

At the moment, however, JD stock is going in the exact opposite direction of AMZN. The stock has seen a slow recovery after last year’s brutal plunge as the trade war and the arrest of the company’s CEO killed all its gains. So have mixed earnings reports and a Chinese bear market.

Clearly, there are myriad risks here, although so far this year JD.com has corked its way well out of the doldrums of 2018. AMZN saw a few pullbacks over the years as well. And while JD may never rise to the scale of Amazon or even out-compete Alibaba, at its current valuation it doesn’t have to.

As investor confidence returns, JD has a path to enormous upside. The long-term strategy still seems intact, and likely the closest in the market to that of Amazon.

Recent Weakness in Shopify Stock Is Turning Into an Opportunity

Source: Shopify via Flickr

Shopify (SHOP)

Ecommerce provider Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) probably doesn’t have quite the same opportunity for expansion as Square. And it, too, has a hefty valuation, along with a continuing bear raid from short-seller Citron Research.

But I’ve remained bullish on the SHOP story, even though valuation is a question mark. Shopify is dominant in its market of offering turnkey ecommerce services to small businesses. That’s exactly where consumer preferences are headed: small and unique over large and bland. And because of offerings like Shopify (and Amazon Web Services), those small to mid-sized businesses can compete with the giants.

Meanwhile, Shopify does have the potential to expand its reach. Just 29% of revenue comes from overseas, a proportion that should grow over time. It’s moving toward capturing larger customers as well through its “Plus” program, picking up Ford (NYSE:F) as one key client.

The development of an ecosystem for suppliers and the addition of new technologies (like virtual reality) give Shopify the ability to offer more value to customers and to take more revenue for itself.

Like SQ, SHOP is dearly priced and still climbing this year. SHOP has put on 42% since the beginning of the year. But both companies have an opportunity to grow into their valuations. And considering long runways for Shopify’s adjacent markets, it should keep a high multiple for some time to come. As a stock, if not quite as a company, SHOP has a real chance to follow the AMZN formula for long-term upside.

5 Stocks That Could Be the Next Amazon Stock: Roku (ROKU)

Source: Shutterstock

Roku (ROKU)

Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) might have the best chance of any company in the U.S. market to follow Amazon’s strategic playbook. The ROKU stock price is a concern. But perhaps even more so than Square, Roku now isn’t what Roku is going to be in ten years.

The hardware business is a loss leader, but one that allows Roku to serve as the gateway to content for millions of customers. As the company pointed out after recent earnings, it’s already the third-largest distributor of content in the U.S. The Roku Channel is seeing increasing viewership. It’s already up to more than 27 million viewers!

The company offers pinpoint targeting of advertisements without the messy data problems afflicting Facebook (NASDAQ:FB).

Roku is becoming increasingly embedded in TVs, though a deal between Amazon and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) raised some fears about those software efforts going forward, and Disney’s new streaming service could be an issue.

It has a plan to roll out home entertainment offerings like speakers and soundbars, creating a long-sought integrated experience. It could even, as it grows, look to develop or acquire content itself, positioning Roku not as just a conduit to Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) but a rival.

The bull case for Roku stock is that its players are like Amazon’s books not a great business on their own, but a way to garner customers and get a foot in the door of the exceedingly valuable media business.

What Roku does now that it has entered will determine the fate of ROKU stock. But the amount of options and still a somewhat modest market cap (under $5 billion) mean that betting on its strategy could be a lucrative play.

Workday (WDAY)

Source: Workday

Workday (WDAY)

Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) is starting to look like the enterprise software version of Amazon. Its core HR product has driven huge gains in WDAY stock, which now has a $36 billion market cap. But Workday is just getting started.

The company previously announced that it would buy Adaptive Insights to build out its financial planning capabilities. It has already rolled out analytics and PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offerings that add billions to its addressable market.

Here, too, valuation looks stretched, to say the least, but the story here still looks attractive. Workday is never going to be as famous as Amazon, or as large. But if its strategy works, it will be as important to, and as embedded with, its corporate customers as Amazon is with its consumers.

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Source: Investor Place

Portfolio High: Is This 5.1% Weed-Powered Dividend Safe?

“Jenny, I can imagine. My wife makes fun of me when I ice my knees after basketball games,” I confided to my friend and favorite bartender.

Her husband, no “young chicken” anymore either she joked, was sore from his own martial arts contest. She bought him a CBD “bath bomb” to help with the aches of being active and middle-aged.

Always the sucker for natural remedies and bartender wisdom, I teed up an Amazon selection for pain and inflammation. Just 26 hours later, I was massaging hemp, turmeric and MSM into my patella tendon (about an hour before tipoff):

BO’s Anti-Inflammatory Pick

“You’re a terrible scientist,” my wife reprimanded me after I bragged about my patella’s comeback in my postgame recap. “You’re supposed to change one variable at a time. You changed everything.”

She was right, of course. I had new basketball shoes and wore a knee brace for the first time in years. I’d changed three variables, had no idea which was the miracle cure. I was left with no choice but to keep my three member “knee team” together! (Who knows how it’s working, as long as it is working, right?)

Hemp has been a popular free agent addition for many aging athletes since its increasing legalization. As you know the crop has other popular uses, too. Mine is more mundane, yet probably fitting for a dividend analyst!

The plant was used in China nearly 5,000 years ago and is enjoying a good old-fashioned American boom thanks to state governments. I live just a few blocks from our neighborhood dispensary yet I wouldn’t have thought to get a doctor’s note for the salve. Put it in on Amazon Prime, though, and it’s in my cart in minutes.

Now what about weed dividends? We’ve had plenty of readers write in asking and, with “pot holiday” April 20 just days away, I thought it’d be fitting for us to review the current crop of dividends.

The Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (HMMJ) just paid its seventh quarterly dividend last Wednesday. Its $0.3811 per share payout is good for a generous 5.1% trailing yield. Plus investors have been as high as a kite since inception, enjoying 160% total returns versus 22% for the S&P 500:

An ETF Contact High

But where exactly do these dividends come from? Most of the stocks the fund holds are not profitable. And the lone dividend payer Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) in the fund is only 7.2% of assets.

HMMJ actually makes its money by lending its shares to short sellers. Remember, when you sell a stock “short,” you are actually borrowing shares so that you can sell them at their current market price. Later, you must buy back these shares to “cover” your short position.

Normally it doesn’t cost that much money to short a stock. But the mostly-unprofitable shares that HMMJ holds are in high demand by short sellers today, and the ETF itself holds much of the supply. So, the fund’s “side hustle” of renting out its holdings is booming.

But there is no actual cash flow backing up its distribution. Nor is there any guarantee that its “short lending” business will remain as robust in future quarters. To paraphrase Prince, this distribution is just a party and parties weren’t meant to last.

How about Scotts, which does manufacture actual products? It’s more of a “pick and shovel” play on weed. The company doesn’t peddle the crop directly but sells growing equipment. Scotts stock pays 2.7% today and, while the firm raises its dividend regularly to the tune of about 5% per year.

As much hype as there is around weed, the power of the “dividend magnet”—the gravity exerted by a payout on its stock price—is even stronger. While Scotts has hiked its dividend by 17% over the last three years, its stock price has risen by the exact same amount:

The All-Powerful Dividend Magnet 

The firm’s subsidiary for cannabis growers has, troublingly, not been growing organically. It’s been more hype than hemp to date for this baked maker of lawn and garden products.

A better backdoor play on the sector is landlord Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR). Remember, while many states have legalized pot, it remains illegal under federal law. Financing is challenging for weed peddlers, so many sell their properties to IIPR to get cash in the door for their operations. The firms then rent their former buildings back from IIPR.

Why IIPR? It’s the only real estate investment trust (REIT) that works with weed growers. As a publicly traded company, it gets to borrow money at much lower rates than it collects from its cannabis clients. As a REIT, IIPR is obligated to dish most of its profits back to its shareholders as dividends. The result is a good old-fashioned payout boom, a 200% increase in less than two years:

The Landlord’s High

The only “problem” with the chart above is that, if you don’t yet own IIRP, it is now quite expensive to do so. Its price line has run away from its payout line, which is a sign that shares are dangerously overvalued. The stock now pays just 2.1% and trades for an extremely rich 31-times its annual cash flow.

Sure, you may be able to buy IIRP “high” and sell it higher. But that’s a different dividend drug altogether.

Forget dividends you say? Let’s not forget the example that money-losing, no-dividend firm India Globalization Capital (IGC) set for us. IGC found the magic investor formula when they put two investing buzzwords side-by-side:

  1. Cannabis, and
  2. Blockchain.

The savvy marketers at IGC then introduced an energy drink infused with hemp, and wow, what a rush!

IGC Jumped 10-Fold on Buzzwords

We rational income investors fortunately avoided this clown show. I wrote to you as the blockchain-weed craze was peaking:

We level-headed contrarians should stay away from this circus. In fact, you need to be honest with yourself about the latest weed craze. If you’re tempted at all to buy this junk, it’s better if you change the channel.

Many marketers know that you and your peers are fixating on these parabolic charts. It’s going to end in tears, but they don’t care. They know they can get your attention now with a weed-fueled promise of 100% to 1,000%+ gains and get out while the getting is good.

The epilogue on IGC? Tears would be putting it mildly:

IPC’s Fast Rise and Fall

One of the smartest investors I know is a sweet grandma. She’d never fall for this speculative stuff! Grandma has a modest $387,000 nest egg that is on pace to last forever. No joke.

Recently I was chatting with a reader of mine who manages money for a select group of clients. He’s using my 8% Monthly Payer Portfolio to make a client’s modest savings – a nice grandmother with $387,000 – last longer than she ever dreamed:

“She brought me $387,000,” he said. “And wants to take out $3,000 per month for ten years.”

“Well she’s already withdrawn money for eight months (at $3,000 per month) and her balance has actually grown to $397,000. If the portfolio continues yielding 7% per year plus 2% per year in capital gains, and she withdraws $3,000 per month, it will pay my fees and still last her 27 years!”

Now many retirement experts pitch real estate as the best way to bank monthly income. But this grandma isn’t hustling to collect rent checks, or fix broken light bulbs. She’s simply collecting her “dividend pension” every month, which is 100% funded by her stocks and funds.

Actually her monthly salary is more than 100% financed – which is why her portfolio has grown by $10,000 as she’s withdrawn $3,000 per month.

I’m ready to give you everything you need to know about this life-changing portfolio now. Let’s talk about Grandma’s secret – her 8% monthly dividend superstars (which even have 10% price upside to boot!)

Grandma focuses on the 12 monthly payers in my “8% Monthly Payer Portfolio.” If you’ve got a bit more than she does–say $500,000 invested–it’ll hand you a rock-solid $40,000-a-year income stream. That’s an 8% dividend yield … and it’s easily enough for most folks to retire on.

The best part is you won’t have to go back to “lumpy” quarterly payouts to do it! Of the 19 income studs in this unique portfolio, 12 pay dividends monthly, so you can look forward to the steady stream of $3,333 in income, month in and month out—give or take a couple hundred bucks – on every $500K in capital you’re able to invest.

Editor's Note: The stock market is way up – and that’s terrible news for us dividend investors. Yields haven’t been this low in decades! But there are still plenty of great opportunities to secure meaningful income if you know where to look. Brett Owens' latest report reveals how you can easily (and safely) rake in 8%+ dividends and never worry about drawing down your capital again. Click here for full details!

Source: Contrarian Outlook